Valero Texas Open Analysis & Predictions

Where: TPC San Antonio

When: March 30-April 2

Watch: Golf Channel, NBC

The PGA Tour lingers one more week in the Lone Star state for the Texas Open this weekend at TPC San Antonio. Played as the event just before The Masters, this year’s Texas Open attracts a field that only includes three of the World Golf Rankings’ top 25 players. But they’ll compete for pieces of an $8.9 million purse and, for those not already invited, an automatic invitation to next week’s festivities in Augusta.

Last week Sam Burns rolled Cam Young 6&5 to win the championship match of the WGC Match-Play event at the Austin Country Club. In the process, Burns collected a cool $3.5 million for the win while providing his financial backers a very nifty payout of +4500.

Rory McIlroy edged Scottie Scheffler 2&1 to win the third-place match.

We whiffed with our main golf betting picks for last weekend, Kevin Kisner (at 50/1), Billy Horschel (80/1), and Nick Taylor (125/1). Horschel actually won his quad to reach the round of 16 before falling to Young 5&4.

As for this week the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, home to this event since 2010, plays to a par-72 at just under 7,500 yards. The average winning score over the last five Texas Opens is 16-under par.

Last year JJ Spaun shot 69-69 on the weekend to win the Valero Texas Open at -13. Matts Jones and Kuchar tied for second at -11; Adam Hadwin, Troy Merritt, Charles Howell, and Beau Hossler tied for fourth at -10; and Keegan Bradley, Matthias Schwab, Gary Woodland, Brendon Todd, and Dylan Frittelli tied for eighth at -9.

Kuchar owns two top-seven finishes over the last three Texas Opens; he also finished T-7 back in 2019. And Chris Kirk finished T-8 here in 2018 and T-6 in 2021.

But Charley Hoffman’s got ‘em all beat as far as past performance at this course goes; he finished T-2 here in 2011, won this event in 2016, and finished second here in 2019 and 2021.

Each week we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight what we believe to be some of the best values on the board, with a few free picks to click. Odds to win and pairings for this week can be found at Bovada. Here’s our take on some of the field for this week’s Texas Open.

Englishman Ty Hatton tops the betting on Bovada’s Texas Open betting board at +1200. Famed Oklahoma State Cowboy Rickie Fowler and Si Woo Kim sit as cosecond choices at +1800, while 2019 Texas Open champ Corey Conners comes next at +2000. Everybody else is getting at least +2200.

Our first pick is the fifth choice.

Hideki Matsuyama +2200 to win

Matsuyama is not playing great golf as of late, and he withdrew from last week’s match-play event in Austin with a sore neck. But we all know when he’s good to go he’s one of the top 10 or 15 players in the world. As of Tuesday, he’s still listed in the field for this event, and we expect him to play. And against this field 22/1 looks like great value.

Chris Kirk +2800 to win

Veteran Kirk is playing good golf this season, and he’s played well at this event before. He took third at Waialae in January, tied for third at The American Express.
, and won the Honda Classic a month ago at PGA National. He also finished eighth at the Texas Open in 2015, 13th in 2016, eighth again in 2018, and sixth in 2021. So we won’t be surprised when we see his name on the front page of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Charley Hoffman +2000 to finish top five

The 46-year-old Hoffman also is not exactly playing great golf as of late, missing the cut his last four times out. But every once in a while this guy pops up with a contending performance. And he must like this course because he finished second here in 2019 and 2021. He doesn’t have to win this event to cash this ticket; just make the cut and give us something to root for over the weekend.

Elsewhere among Bovada’s Texas Open betting offerings defending champion Spaun and Fowler are paired at +1100 on the “two chances” board; Spaun, Fowler, and Matsuyama are teamed at +2500 on the “all top-10 finish” board.

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