The Memorial Betting Picks & Analysis

Event: The Memorial
Where: Muirfield Village
Watch: Golf Channel, CBS
When: June 1-4

The PGA Tour barnstorms into the Buckeye State this week for one of the big, fun events each summer, Jack Nicklaus’ Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village. A limited field of 120 which includes the World Golf Rankings’ top five players, will play for pieces of another $20 million purse, including $3.6 mill and a personal audience with the Golden Bear himself to the winner.

Last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Emiliano Grillo rallied from four shots down on Sunday to take a late lead, double-bogey the 18th hole to fall into a playoff with Adam Schenk, then birdied the second extra hole to win. In picking up his second career PGA title Grillo also provided his financial backers with a tasty payout of +6000.

Local hero Scottie Scheffler and Englishman Harry Hall tied for third last week; Paul Haley II finished fifth; defending Challenge champion Sam Burns, Rickie Fowler, and Michael Kim tied for sixth; and Kevin Streelman, Max Homa, and Mark Hubbard tied for ninth.

We came up empty with our free golf picks for last week. Brendon Todd, who we bet across the board (win, top-5, top-10), shot 74 on Sunday to finish T-57; Sungjae Im (+2000 to win) shot 72-70 and missed the cut; and Chris Kirk (+650 to finish top-5) missed the cut, too.

Thanks, guys.

As for this week, Muirfield Village, home to this event since its inception in 1976, plays to a par-72 at around 7,390 yards. Nicklaus dreamt this place up, so you know it’s a great challenge to all aspects of a player’s game.

Last year Billy Horschel shot a tournament-best 65 on Saturday to take the lead and held on to win the Memorial by four shots over Aaron Wise. Joaquin Niemann and Patrick Cantlay tied for third; Denny McCarthy, Sahith Theegala, Homa, Daniel Berger, and Will Zalatoris tied for fifth; and Im, Brendan Steele, and Jon Rahm tied for tenth.

Each week we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight what we believe to be some of the best golf betting values on the board, with a few free picks to click. Odds to win and pairings for this week can be found at Bovada. Here’s our take on some of the field at this week’s Memorial Tournament.

Scheffler, who’s only played this tournament twice before, tops the betting on Bovada’s Memorial board at +700. Rahm, who won this event in 2020 and would have repeated in 2021 if not for a stupid positive C-19 test, sits as the second choice at +750, followed by two-time Memorial champion Cantlay at +1100, Xander Schauffele at +1400 and Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland at +1600.

We don’t like betting favorites in a field like this, but we can’t ignore the recent track record at Muirfield Village of our top pick for this week.

Patrick Cantlay +1100 to win

This UCLA Bruin took fourth in the Memorial in 2018, won it in 2019, won it again (with a bit of help) in 2021, and finished T-3 here last year. He also owns six top-10s in just 12 tournaments this season, including a third at Riviera, a T-4 at Arnold’s tournament, and a T-9 at the PGA Championship a couple of weeks ago. He also ranks fifth on the Tour in greens in regulation this season, seventh in putting, and ninth in driving accuracy. Cantlay took last week off, but the limited schedule seems to be working for him.

Sungjae Im +500 to finish top-5

We bet Im last week on our rebound theory; he already owned eight top-10s this season, including three in a row heading into the PGA Championship, then missed the cut. Then he missed the cut last week, too. Maybe we should double our bet. Im only owns one top-10 in four chances at the Memorial, but that came last year, despite a 75 on Saturday. We won’t be surprised if Im soon returns to his form of a few weeks ago.

Elsewhere among Bovada’s Memorial Tournament wager offerings, Scheffler is getting +600 to miss the cut and +2000 to win by four or more shots; the threesome of Cantlay, Rahm, and Justin Thomas is getting +1000 on the “all top-10” board; and a playoff, which they’ve had here five out of the last nine years, is getting +350.

The first groups for this Memorial Tournament go off Thursday morning at 6 am ET.