The Byron Nelson Top Bets & Analysis

Event: The Byron Nelson
Where: TPC Craig Ranch
Watch: Golf Channel, CBS
When: May 11-14

The PGA Tour honors one of its all-time greats this week with the playing of the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in suburban Dallas. A week before the PGA Championship, a field that only includes five of the World Golf Rankings’ top 30 players will nonetheless compete for shares of $9.5 million in prize money.

Last week Wyndham Clark shot four rounds in the 60s, including a 63 on Saturday, to win the Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte. In picking up his first career PGA Tour victory, Clark also pocketed $3.6 million while providing his financial backers with a payout of +7500.

Xander Schauffele placed second last week, four shots back of Clark. Harris English and Tyrrell Hatton tied for third; first-round leader Tommy Fleetwood and Adam Scott tied for fifth; Michael Kim took seventh; and Denny McCarthy, Sungjae Im, Brendon Todd, KH Lee, Max Homa, and Corey Conners tied for eighth.

As for this week, TPC Craig Ranch, home to this event only since 2021, plays to a par-72 at around 7,470 yards.

Last year KH Lee shot 63 on Sunday to win the Byron Nelson for the second year in a row, beating Texan Jordan Spieth by one shot and Hideki Matsuyama and Sebastian Munoz by two. Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Ryan Palmer tied for fifth; Charl Schwartzel finished eighth; Davis Riley, James Hahn, and Peter Malnati tied for ninth.

We swung and missed with our free golf betting picks last week; Jason Day, who’s been playing so well this season, came off a month-long layoff and missed the cut; Akshay Bhatia shot 73 on Sunday to finish T-43. And Ben Taylor, following a good showing the week previous at the Mexico Open, missed the cut, too.

Each week we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight what we believe to be some of the best golf betting values on the board, with a few free picks to click. Odds to win and pairings for this week can be found at Bovada. Here’s our take on some of the field in this week’s Byron Nelson.

Dallas native Scottie Scheffler, the top-ranked player in the field this week at No. 2, tops the betting on Bovada’s Byron Nelson board at +350. Ty Hatton sits as the second choice at +1400, followed by Jason Day and Tom Kim at +1600. Everybody else is getting at least +2000.

Who says we can’t bet the same guy two weeks in a row?

Jason Day +1600 to win

We bet Day last week because he had played well at Quail Hollow before; he owned five top-10 finishes this season, he played three good rounds at the Masters, and he was getting 25/1. Then, he missed the cut. OK, whatever. Sometimes, following a layoff, a guy needs a tournament or two to shake off some rust. Day is still having a fine season, and 16/1 against this field looks like good betting value to us.

KH Lee +375 to finish top-five

It’s difficult to get past Lee’s performances over the last two Byron Nelsons; eight straight rounds of 68 or better, a total of 25-under par two years ago, 26-under last year, and two wins. More recently, he ain’t been great but not terrible either, making four cuts in a row, taking a T-23 at the Masters last month and a T-8 last week at Quail Hollow. This week Kim is trying to become the first player to win a PGA event three times in a row since Steve Stricker won the John Deere Classic in 2009, 2010, and 2011. But for us, he’s only gotta finish on the first page of the leaderboard.

Michael Kim +900 to finish top-five

Kim struggled earlier this season, but now he’s made six cuts in a row, with a fifth-place finish at the Puerto Rico Open and a seventh last week at the Wells Fargo, with four rounds in the 60s. So maybe he’s found a little game to carry over here. And again, against this field, there’s value with this bet at 9/1.

Elsewhere among Bovada’s Byron Nelson bet offerings, Scheffler is getting +800 to miss the cut and/or +1000 to win by at least three strokes; the pairing of Scheffler and Day is getting +3000 on the quinella board, and the threesome of Scheffler, Day and Min Woo Lee is getting +1100 on the “all top-10” board.

The first groups for this Byron Nelson go off at 7:50 am ET Thursday morning, 6:50 am local time.