PGA Tour Preview: The American Express Predictions
Tournament Details
Where: PGA West – Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club, and Nicklaus Tournament Course (La Quinta, CA)
When: January 16th-19th
Watch: ESPN+, The Golf Channel, NBC
The next PGA Tour event of the 2025 season is upon us as we shift our focus to The American Express tournament in La Quinta, California. The format of this tournament is unlike many others in which the field of golfers will be tested with three separate courses across their first three rounds.
After taking on PGA West’s Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club and the Nicklaus Tournament Course, there will be a 54-hole cut allowing only the top 65 in the field to advance to the final round. The final round will see a shrunken field head back to where it all started as they will be tested with the Pete Dye Stadium Course once again.
About the Courses
Pete Dye Stadium Course
- Par 72
- 7187 yards
- Famous par-3 17th hole known as Alcatraz, surrounded by water
- Deep greenside bunkers, narrow fairways and undulating greens
La Quinta Country Club
- Par 72
- 7060 yards
- Par-4 17th hole featuring a green protected by both water hazards and bunkers
- Classic design with lush fairways, smooth and compact greens making for quick putting surfaces
Nicklaus Tournament Course
- Par 72
- 7204 yards
- Par-3 8th hole features a large lake guarding the front right portion of the green
- Par-4 15th hole features the longest water hazard carry on course. Water hazard runs along the left side of the fairway and extends to the front of the green
Who to Bet This Weekend?
Daniel Berger – Top 20 Finish (+300)
After a horrendous showing at the Sony Open in Hawaii last weekend, Daniel Berger may seem like an odd play to have success this weekend. I like him for a few reasons. The first is his accuracy off the tee box. With lengthy water hazards and fairways that slope towards them, driving accuracy can make or break a round. The fairways will be in near perfect condition and if you can hit them, you will be left with a great lie for your second shot. Berger has also shown that he can handle Pete Dye designs rather well. In his career he has three top-5 finishes and 4 top-10 finishes on Dye tracks. A top-20 finish feels quite comfortable for the value, assuming he can make putts.
Sam Burns – To Win (+1400)
With the 3rd best odds to add a PGA Tour victory here at The American Express, I still find a ton of value in betting on Sam Burns to win this tournament. Coming off of a T-8 at The Sentry, Burns is looking to keep the momentum rolling. While his accuracy off the tee box is somewhat problematic, there is not a better player in this field with a putter in their hands. Burns has the power to clear water hazards with his driver, and on desert courses that can be a bit more forgiving, I expect this tournament to come down to play on the greens. These greens will play very true, yet lightning fast. As a golfer in the 99th percentile of strokes gained on putts, Burns is a must play betting option for me.
JJ Spaun – Top 10 Finish (+375)
Spaun’s game may not be the best suited for the three courses he will face this weekend, but I have to ride the hot hand. His T3 last weekend in Hawaii was a masterclass in approach play, leaving him with countless birdie or better opportunities. Both his putting and driving accuracy have been streaky of late, but I am counting on a repeat performance and another finish firmly in the top 10. This event has shown in past years that anything can happen, but I’ll give a nod to a golfer who is coming in hotter than the rest of the field.