PGA Tour FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks & Analysis

PGA Tour Playoffs – FedEx St. Jude Championship
Where: TPC Southwind (Memphis, TN)
Event: FedEx St. Jude Championship
Watch: NBC, The Golf Channel, Peacock
When: August 15-18

Playoffs! You kiddin’ me?! Playoffs?! That’s right, the anticipation is over as the PGA Tour FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this Thursday just outside of Memphis, Tennessee. The field is set, and the top 70 ranked golfers will take on TPC Southwind with everything on the line. The new PGA Tour Playoff format sees a reduction in the field size, shrinking from 125 in previous years. The field is set to continue to be cut down across the upcoming three playoff tournaments, dropping from 70 to 50 to 30, respectively. FedEx Cup positioning is the key here, and the golfers teetering around the cut lines will need to tap into their full potential for a chance to continue their playoff run and, yes, gain a larger piece of the bonus pool. While last week’s rain-delayed, sloppy-conditioned Wyndham Championship may not have been the most exciting watch, this weekend should deliver in a big way.

TPC Southwind’s layout is trying but also relatively fair. The par 70, 7243-yard track is relatively flat but designed with some twists and turns. The par 5s are not overly long and can be played aggressively. The par 3’s, including the 11th hole island green, are mainly a test of how dry you can keep your ball. But those par 4’s. The tournament will be decided by these twelve holes. The fairways are narrow and abundantly tree-lined while also providing some dramatic doglegs to the left and right. Off the tee box, there should be extra emphasis on playing the right angles and executing accurate drives. Failure to collect FIRs throughout the weekend will lead to blocked approach shots and an inability to appropriately attack the greens. TPC Southwind should not pose much of a threat with the putter in hand.

There will be no shortage of competitive energy on tour this weekend, and a few different factors are in play driving that competitiveness. Some golfers have their eyes a little further down the road, while others will need to scratch and claw their way to another weekend. TPC Southwind will require precision off the tee box. Although it ranks very low in difficulty on and around the green, the ability to make putts consistently will begin to separate the leaderboard. There is no cutline during this event, so I expect to see some invigorating storylines throughout the 72 holes.

Collin Morikawa – Top 10 Finish -110

The last time Morikawa played at TPC Southwind, he finished T13 and -10 for the weekend. Accuracy off the tee is arguably the strong part of his game, in fact, he ranks 15th in strokes gained off the tee, and 4th in overall driving accuracy. His lack of driving distance should not negatively impact his ability to compete here. Morikawa’s approach game can leave a lot to be desired at times, but at a course that forgives scrambling, he can contend. As the golfer with the 5th-best par four scoring average on tour, I believe Morikawa will find his way to the top of the leaderboard. Bovada Sportsbook is also offering him at +1200 odds to win, which may be worth a sprinkle considering how well-suited his game is to this course.

Rory McIlroy – Top 5 Finish +185

Is there a golfer that lives for the playoffs more than Rory McIlroy? Last year’s trip to the St. Jude Championship yielded a T3, followed by two 4th place finishes at the BMW and Tour Championships. McIlroy is having one of his best ball-striking seasons, ranking third in total strokes gained. Outside of his debacle at The Open Championship, Rory has been red-hot as of late. He has the ability to play aggressively from the tee box and leave himself with comfortable wedges in. If Rory is locked in mentally this weekend, I think he can dominate a small field and find himself in contention come Sunday.

Russell Henley – Winner +3000

This one is a bit of a long shot, but there is a ton of value in this play. Henley has a well-rounded game that can counteract the challenges he will face in his trip to Memphis. His driving accuracy ranks 9th on tour, his putts per round ranks 10th, and his 3-putt avoidance is good for 2nd. Long story short, Henley won’t hurt himself with unnecessary penalties. His performance may not look flashy, and he won’t be hitting bombs down the fairways, but Henley has all the tools to win at Southwind.

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