Olympic Games 2024 – Men’s Golf Individual Picks & Bets

Where: Le Golf National
Event: Men’s Golf Individual – Olympic Games Paris
Watch: Peacock, NBC, USA Network, The Golf Channel
When: August 1-4

For just the third time since 2016, the Olympic games will feature a Men’s Golf Individual tournament. The stakes could not be higher as a field of 60 qualified golfers from around the world will battle for three coveted medals during four rounds of stroke play at The Albatros course at Le Golf National, the home of the 2018 Ryder Cup. With the PGA Tour and LIV Golf off for the week, all eyes will turn to Paris with the ultimate prize of becoming an Olympic medalist on the line.

Le Golf National has a rich history as an annual host of the DP World Tour – French Open and the aforementioned 2018 Ryder Cup, making it no stranger to the spotlight. The par 71 course, playing around 7,200 yards long, features narrow fairways, strategically placed bunkers, thick, rough, uneven greens, and water hazards on more than half of the holes. Accuracy off the tee box will be critical, followed closely by mid-range iron play. The golfers who can consistently hit fairways and greens in regulation will avoid costly strokes, while those who cannot will be scrambling to make challenging up-and-downs to save pars or worse. This course truly favors the European style of play, where accuracy trumps distance every time.

Because of the selection criteria for Olympic qualification, some of the world’s best golfers are not in the field, as there is a four-golfer maximum per country. Nevertheless, this field of 60 should be highly competitive throughout the weekend. The elimination of the cut-line in Olympic golf play means that to some extent, nobody is ever truly out of contention. It’s hard to look past the star-studded, top-heavy end of the field, including golfers like Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark and Ludvig Aberg, but let’s take a look at my best bets for the weekend.

Tommy Fleetwood – Top 10 Finish +120

Ranking within the top 10 of driving accuracy on the PGA Tour, it feels like Fleetwood’s game perfectly suits the challenges this Parisian course presents. Fleetwood is an expert ball striker, and while his distance may be a limitation in other tournaments, it shouldn’t negatively affect his ability to contend for a medal in Paris. On top of this course catering to his play style, there is also a lot of familiarity that should provide the Englishman with an advantage that few others in the field possess. Fleetwood won the French Open in 2017 and was a member of the European Ryder Cup team that dismantled the United States. Fleetwood’s 4-0 record in his matches allowed the Europeans to defend home soil. Putting will be a key component to watch, but his ability to keep his ball safely in play should allow him to finish in the top sixth of the field. Bovada is also offering Tommy Fleetwood to finish 15th or better at -120 odds if you are willing to risk a little more for some extra wiggle room in the final standings.

Scottie Scheffler – Top 3 Finish +125

It almost feels like a cop-out to pick Scottie Scheffler in any tournament, but his dominant play cannot be overstated in an event of this magnitude. The main critique on Scottie’s game is when he has his putter in hand, but he has actually netted positive true strokes gained in 8 of his last 11 tournaments, dating back to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which he won by five strokes. If we look at his performance at the US Open as an outlier, it’s hard to argue that he has any fundamental weaknesses. Scheffler’s Olympic stay will be much more luxurious compared to those athletes sleeping on cardboard beds. He traveled to France with his wife and son and looked loose and relaxed on the eve of his Olympic debut, taking in the sites and scenes as both a tourist and an American teammate. I expect Scottie to be standing in one of the three podium spots come Sunday with a medal around his neck. The last two Olympics have seen an American medal, and I expect the trend to continue in 2024. I will also be taking Scottie to win gold at +400 odds.

2 Chances – Rory McIlroy/Jon Rahm +400

With the third and fourth-best odds to win gold individually, this play screams value. While this pair enters Olympic competition coming off of very different recent finishes (McIlroy missed the cut at The Open Championship, and Rahm won LIV Golf UK), they both have the arsenal to finish at the top. McIlroy has not minced words this week as he took an opportunity to recount the events of 2018 and how the Americans fared at Le Golf National. That same fiery competitiveness fueled Rory at the Tokyo Summer Olympics, where he narrowly missed medaling. I expect him to come out with a vengeance at a course he knows well. Adding Jon Rahm into this 2 Chances pick relies on the fact that his play continues to trend upward. He has placed within the top-10 in each of his last four tournaments, including a T7 at The Open Championship. Look for him to take some calculated risks on his approach shots knowing that his touch around the greens will control damage if need be.