Mexico Open Picks and Predictions: Course History Points to Smalley Success
Where: VidantaWorld Golf Course (Vallarta, Mexico)
When: February 20th-23rd
Watch: The Golf Channel, ESPN+, NBC
The PGA Tour had its fun over the last few weeks along the West Coast of the United States, but now it will head south of the border as the Mexico Open has arrived. The 2025 Mexico Open is set to be a thrilling spectacle, attracting the top golfers from around the globe to compete in one of the most prestigious tournaments in Latin America.
Held at the stunning and challenging Vidanta Vallarta course, this event promises not only intense competition but also breathtaking views. The Mexico Open has a rich history, and in recent years, it has grown in prominence, drawing larger crowds and high-caliber players. The 2025 edition is expected to continue this trend over four days of intense play, with golfers navigating the course’s unique blend of long fairways, strategically placed bunkers, and water hazards that will demand precision in all phases of the game.
The field may not be as star-studded as we have seen in recent weeks, but this event still features many household names. I am anticipating a wild finish and another exciting weekend of golf on the PGA Tour.
About the Course
- Par: 71
- Distance: 7,436 yards
- Course Designer: Greg Norman
- The course has 11 holes with water danger, 106 total bunkers, and numerous large sandy waste areas.
My Best Bets for the 2025 Mexico Open
Alex Smalley – Top 5 Finish (+500)
Smalley debuted at the Mexico Open three years ago and was able to ride his early momentum to a sixth-place finish. Smalley has also had a very strong start to the 2025 season, with the only outlier being a missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. In his other three events, he has finished in the top 20 twice and a T-21 at the Waste Management.
While Smalley’s success in his first showing at Puerto Vallarta was three years ago, he has continually proven that he can have success in the Latin American climate. In events in Punta Cana, Smalley has placed 2nd and 6th on a course that also features the same Paspalum grass. Look for him to get out to a quick start in the opening rounds and contend in a watered-down field. If a top-5 finish is too much of a reach for you, Bovada is still providing plenty of juice for an Alex Smalley top-10 finish at +250. Personally, I may take both.
Kevin Yu – To Win (+4000)
I see Kevin Yu as both a solid value play, but also a golfer in this field who has the right tools to remain in contention across all four rounds of play. He may be a “rookie” in this event, but his distance gained off the tee is going to be his biggest asset.
Yu is coming off two consecutive top-20 finishes at both the Genesis and the Waste Management and has some solid momentum heading to Mexico. In these last two events, Yu has finished with a positive true strokes gained rating in his approach play. He will need to clean up his putting performance a bit, but he can certainly make up for that in these other areas.
Kurt Kitayama – Top 5 Finish (+400)
I am back on the Kurt Kitayama train once again, even though he has struggled mightily to start his 2025 season. Kitayama has a second-place finish at this tournament in 2023, which is indicative that he knows these course conditions well.
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Statistically speaking, Kitayama’s game is a nice fit for this tournament, highlighted by his ability to smash the ball off the tee. There is some extra room for forgiveness at VidantaWorld, so accuracy is not as imperative as distance. Look for Kurt to leave himself with easy shots into the green and rely on his approach game that has been impressive in tournaments where he has had success. His putting is middle of the road, but if his irons and wedges are dialed in, it won’t matter much.
Final Thoughts
While the 2025 Mexico Open doesn’t boast the same star power as recent PGA Tour events, it’s still a great betting opportunity with some undervalued players in the field. Expect big hitters to thrive, and keep an eye on Smalley, Yu, and Kitayama to make noise on the leaderboard.
It should be a wild and exciting tournament, and as always, I’ll be watching closely for live betting opportunities throughout the weekend.
