Mexico Open Analysis & Picks

Where: Vidanta Vallarta Resort

Watch: Golf Channel, CBS

When: April 27-30

The PGA Tour ventures south of the border this week, down Mexico way, for the
Mexico Open at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort in Villa Hidalgo. A field of 144 that only includes one of the top 15 in the World Golf Rankings will nonetheless play for shares of a $7.7 million purse, including $1.4 mill to the to the winner and 500 FedEx Cup points.

Last week the team of Nick Hardy and Davis Riley shot 64-66-63-65, the 66 and 65 playing on alternate shots, to win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In doing so the pair each pocketed $1.2 million in prize money and banked 400 FedEx points while providing their financial backers with a payout of +4000.

Hardy and Riley then both withdrew from this week’s event on Monday, probably hung over after picking up their first career Tour victories.

The Canadian team of Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin placed second last week, two shots out of first. Beau Hossler and Wyndham Clark, the third-round leaders, showed third; and Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele and Matthew NeSmith/Taylor Moore tied for fourth.

We came up empty with our picks on last week’s tournament; our main team of Sahith Theegala and Justin Suh, at +2000 to win, opened with a 63 and still had an outside shot heading into Sunday, then finished with a 73 to come in at T-23.

As for this week the Vidanta Vallarta course, which took over hosting this event just last year, plays to a par-71 at around 7,450 yards. Last year Jon Rahm shot four rounds in the 60’s to win the Mexico Open by one stroke over Brandon Wu and Tony Finau.

Riley finished fifth last year; Aaron Wise, David Lipsky, Alex Smalley and Cam Champ tied for sixth; and Patrick Rodgers took tenth.

Each week we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight what we believe to be some of the best golf betting values on the board, with a few free picks to click. Odds to win and pairings for this week can be found at Bovada. Here’s our take on some of the field in this week’s Mexico Open.

Rahm, to little surprise, is lined as a heavy +275 favorite on Bovada’s Mexico Open betting board. Finau is the second choice at +800, followed by Clark at +1800. Everybody else is getting at least +2200, which is where we find our top pick for this week.

Gary Woodland (+2200 to win)

Woodland’s a bit of mystery to us. He looked so good a few seasons back chasing and finally winning a Major but he hasn’t won since. Last year Woodland really struggled but he took a T-24 here at the Mexico Open, with three rounds in the 60’s. More recently he’s made the cut seven times in his last eight starts, took a T-9 at Riviera back in February and a T-14 at the Masters three weeks ago. We’ll bite at 22/1 this week.

Chez Reavie (+1200 to finish top-5)

Reavie finished T-13 here last year with three rounds in the 60’s. More recently he missed six cuts in a row from January into March, then took a T-6 at the Texas Open and a T-11 at the Heritage. So apparently he figured something out. Hopefully he can ride some momentum to a first-page finish this week.

Elsewhere among Bovada’s Mexico Open bet offerings Rahm is offered at +800 to miss the cut and +3000 to win wire-to-wire; Rahm, Rodgers and Nicolai Hojgaard are teamed at +1200 on the “all top-10” board; and Rahm, Clark and Woodland are getting +15000 on the tricast (trifecta box) board.

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