BMW Championship 2024 Predictions: PGA Tour Playoffs Best Bets

PGA Tour Playoffs – BMW Championship
Where: Castle Pines Golf Club (Castle Rock, CO)
Event: BMW Championship
Watch: NBC, The Golf Channel, Peacock, ESPN+
When: August 22-25

The FedEx Cup playoffs continue with the BMW Championship, the second of three tournaments. The top 50 points leaders head west to Denver, Colorado, to take on the lengthy Castle Pines Golf Club. The action is set to begin this Thursday morning as the first of 25 pairings will tee off at 9:25 EST. After the St. Jude Championship in Memphis last weekend, some notable names failed to avoid the twenty-golfer cut, ending their playoff run early. The field of 50 includes Scotty Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and last week’s winner Hideki Matsuyama. The looming prospect of another cut will be a major motivation this weekend. With no in-tournament cut after the first two rounds played, the tension and anticipation will be palpable. I don’t expect any lack of entertainment in this one.

Castle Pines Golf Club is one of the longest courses to ever host a PGA Tour event at over 8,100 yards. The par 72 Jack Nicklaus designed course features mountainous terrain and some extreme elevation changes. The fairways are wide, allowing for a bit of forgiveness off the tee, but the greens are small and lightning fast. Because of the length of the course, approach shots into the greens will be further back, requiring an extra level of precision. The greens undulate quite significantly, so ball placement at the right level will be key to limiting putting strokes. Missed greens and fairways will be problematic, as Castle Pines features thick rough that can give any golfer fits for four straight days. We do however need to factor in the elevation change. If you’re a fan of bombs off the tee, you’ll definitely want to tune in.

There will be one thing on every golfer’s mind this weekend, and that will be to find themselves in the top 30 by the conclusion of Sunday’s round. While all eyes will and should be on the Tour Championship, the field would be wise not to overlook Castle Pines. This course is a formidable adversary that will demand proficient play in all phases of the game. Success this weekend will require a combination of driving consistency, approach accuracy, and the ability to scramble when necessary. Strokes gained on the green may provide an advantage throughout the tournament, but I expect the field to separate based on the results of shots into the greens. I’ve assessed a few key metrics and statistics of the golfers in the field and outlined my best bets below!

Xander Schauffele – Winner +650

Coming off of a strong showing at St. Jude last weekend, I fully expect Schauffele to contend again this weekend. With no real flaws in his game, Xander has all of the tools to contend at any course on tour, and Castle Pines will be no different. He ranks 4th in strokes gained when approaching the green, and his total putting is ranked 1st. Last weekend he showed that he does not crack under pressure and was nearly able to complete a miraculous comeback on Hideki Matsuyama. Look for Schauffele to attack off the tee and decrease the distance he has left into each green. He has a chance to really separate himself if he can execute this strategy, but his masterful putting gives him yet another advantage over the field. There’s not much more I need to say to justify Xander’s capability to win this weekend. To me, it feels like he and Scheffler are in a league of their own.

Wyndham Clark – Top 10 Finish +130

This is more of a gut feeling pick, rather than one based on analysis. There may not be a player on tour who is better acclimated to playing at altitude than Wyndham Clark. Born in Colorado, Clark has played at Elevation routinely throughout his career and has played at Castle Pines on more occasions than most of the field combined. While I am wary of his approach game, Clark is the number one golfer in his approach play from over 100 yards out. He can hit the ball a mile off the tee, but he will need to dial in his accuracy. I expect him to perform well at a course he knows like the back of his hand and expect to see him firmly in the top 10 by Sunday evening.

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