Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Predictions and Picks

DP World Tour – Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

Where: St. Andrews Old Course, Kingsbarn Golf Links, and Carnoustie Golf Links
When: October 3rd – 6th
Watch: NBC, The Golf Channel

One of the more unique events on the DP World Tour will kick off this Thursday as a highly competitive field will take on the world-famous St. Andrews Old Course in Scotland for the first round. In this tournament, golfers will then move on to play Kingsbarn Golf Links and Carnoustie Golf Links in the 2nd and 3rd rounds before the cut takes place. The 4th and final round will be back where everything started at St. Andrew’s and will see some of the best golfers in the world paired with amateurs who play for the love of the game. This event is a must-watch if you enjoy low scores, links-style courses, and the unpredictability that comes from amateurs and professionals sharing the same grounds. There have been some notable winners in the past who are looking for their share of the $5 million dollar prize pool this weekend. You won’t want to miss this one.

Everyone who follows golf has heard of St. Andrew’s. The course, known as the home of golf, has a rich history and has hosted countless professional events. The course itself, like Kingsbarn and Carnoustie, is wide open but features tall fescue and deep bunkers that will punish errant tee and approach shots alike. In an event that emphasizes play on the links, accuracy is key, but distance can become a big factor. Without treelined fairways, golfers will always have a sightline to the green, but those who can leave themselves with easier second and third shots will have the most success. This also means that off the tee, golfers will want to avoid the tall fescue where golf balls have a habit of disappearing. Conditions look quite tame for the weekend, but as the landscape is Scotland highlights open areas and cliffs, wind may be a factor.

There are a few guys that I have my eyes on heading into Thursday’s first round. I tend to lean towards golfers who have had past success at St. Andrew’s and other links courses, but also golfers who have played well in this type of format. A cut post-round three means that there will be plenty of opportunity to keep your round alive, but with low scores expected, it will be important to get out of the gates fast. Putting may also become a critical factor in separating the field, but I believe that approach shots will be the number one differentiator. Let’s take a look at my best bets for the weekend.

Brooks Koepka – Finishing Position 21 or Better (-115)
Koepka has not played in this event for seven years, with his last appearance coming in 2017. In his last three appearances at the Alfred Dunhill, Brooks has walked away within the top 10 each time. He also has a top 10 finish at St. Andrews in the 2015 British Open, and while that may seem like a long time ago, he is still playing strong golf. Koepka’s game is suited well for a links-style course. Koepka has netted positive strokes gained in all facets of his game, outside of driving accuracy. He excels in his distance metrics and his approach play. He will need to clean up his accuracy off the tee, but these three courses will be a bit more forgiving than some of the others he has recently played. He has been firmly inside the top 20 in his last three LIV events, and I expect that trend to continue here.

Matt Fitzpatrick – To Win (+3500)
Huge value play here for a golfer who undoubtedly knows these courses better than most golfers in this field. It will be tough for him to repeat his performance from a year ago, where he won both the team and individual events, but his course knowledge can separate him. His 2.0 strokes gained with the putter rank him at the very top of the field, and while his game has been trending downward recently, this is an event he can shine. I also love his finishing position better than 32, which Bovada is offering at -115 odds.

Rory McIlroy – To Win (+650)
There are very few golfers better than Rory McIlroy, and, in this field, he is rightfully the co-favorite to win it all with Jon Rahm. His game is robust, and he ranks near the top in driving distance, approach play, putting, and play around the green. His last two events saw him with a T2 and 2nd overall finish. Rory is poised to make a run for the top of the leaderboard, and I love the return on this play.