Gunner's picks and match analysis

[GunnerX]

As i can see that i'm the only one posting soccer pick here more or less I decided to open a thread of my own picks so that i don't open that much new ones. Hope you can enjoy this info and make good use of it ;)

Last couple of picks were without loss so I hope Lokomotiv can keep that nice series today ;)

LOKOMOTIV - ROSTOV
Rostov will be missing Dzyuba, and it’s the same as if they are missing half of the team because Dzyuba is their top goalscorer and by far the best player this season. He scored 7 out of 12 Rostov goals so far. Without him they will struggle in attacking part while Lokomotiv on the other hand under coach Kuchuk is playing better and better. Lokomotiv recenty also bought Boussoufa and Lassana Diarra, two quality players who should add more depth to their play.
Rostov played some solid games but it was all against lower class teams and now they are facing four difficult challenges in which they won’t be capable of taking as much as point or two and it would be a huge surprise if they get anything here.
Bet: 1
Odds: 1.75
BOL ;)

[GunnerX]

Lokomotiv had an easy job against Rostov..5:0 in the end ;) Let's try to keep this nice series with Basel today :)

BASEL - LUDOGORETS
First match in Bulgaria has already shown us how these two teams play and that is open and aggressively. Ludogorets has a big task today, they must chase at least 3 goal margin victory or 4:2 to get extra time chance. They have already proven that they have a quality attacking system in two tough games against Partizan and away against Slovan.
On the other hand Basel is not the kind of team which relies on defending. Their defensive part has not been very convincing this year and they’ve hardly managed to get a clean sheet this season so I expect them to react on strong Ludogorets’ offensive with attacking play of their own. Against Maccabi they had advantage from the first game but were still seeking for that extra goal to confirm their overall victory. Salah and Stocker are both available after minor injuries so they shouldn’t have problems scoring.
Ludogorets has been defending quite well in national championship but Basel is by far better team than Bulgarian teams and they will have hard time keeping their net untouched especially if they are to go all out as I expect and as the result from first match obliges them to do so.
Both teams will get 50k euros per player if they go through in group stage, and I don’t expect Ludogorets to go in groups but that kind of money will be a good motivation for them to at least try to do something here.
Bet: Both to score
Tip: Yes
Odds: 1.85
Cheers ;)

[GunnerX]

TOTTENHAM – DINAMO TBLISI
Dinamo Tblisi will have a real hard time scoring in this match and that’s what im gonna base my bet on. First of all they haven’t managed to score on their home turf in front of their audience where they usually have more chances to score than away. Second of all, Tottenham has already shown that they wont underestimate them and I expect a dose of seriousness in this rematch.
In all last three matches Spurs had a clean sheet and their opponents were all much stronger teams than Dinamo. Even if AVB uses some rotations in lineup today (which I doubt) they will primarily be in the offensive part. On all that we must add that Dinamo will surely miss Xisco, their best and most experienced striker.
My perspective of this match is that Dinamo will “park their bus” in their own half and try to save themselves from some kind of debacle against Soldado and company. I’m sure that English team will score so this bet definitely has a value.
Bet: home team wins without receiving a goal
Odds: 1.95

[GunnerX]

NAUTICO – SAO PAOLO
Just by looking at the table one can see in how difficult situation Nautico is. With or without second division syndrome, they are justifying their status of relegation candidate from the beginning of the season. They’ve lost 11 out of last 15 games and they also have worst efficiency in the league with only 9 goals scored so far. Constant coach shifts are also not helping them gain stability – in last four months they’ve changed four coaches.
Moreover, they’ve recently moved onto the new stadium so they don’t even have the feeling of playing on home turf. They’ve also been eliminated from Sul-Americani Cup against biggest rival, now playing in second division Sport Recife. In this match they wont be able to count on their key defender Joao Filipe so I expect their defense to be even more unstable.
In last four league games they played against Cricuma, Bahia, Fluminense and Atletico PR and lost all four of them – on the other hand Sao Paolo played with Fluminense and Atletico and took 4 points in those two matches. They’ve also played very good against Flamengo where they missed last minute penalty worth all three points and took a point against top team of Botafogo. All that suggests that they are close to getting out of crisis because they are showing it not only with results but also with their play on the field.
Difference in squad quality is also notable cause Sao Paolo has a couple of times more expensive team than hosts and they will also be stronger today because their top striker Luis Fabiano is back from suspension.
Advantage for visitors is also the fact that Nautico played four games in last two weeks and Sao Paolo only two and I expect more freshness in away team.
BET: 2
Odds: 2.10
Good luck ;)

[GunnerX]

IRELAND - SWEDEN
There are few options i have in mind here. First of all is Ibrahimovic to score option - he's scored 5 out of last 6 Sweden goals, if there is to be a penalty he'll take it probably and he always spends whole 90 minutes on the field. Some bookies offer up to 2.90 (at least my local bookies) which is excellent.

Also DNB seems quite nice with 1.85 and i'm going for it. I really dont think Ireland can do more than to take a point here. What do you think people?

Btw here are some probable lineups and missing players
IRELAND (missing McGeady, Kelly, St Ledger, Hendrick)
Forde - Coleman, Dunne, O'Shea, Wilson - Walters, Whelan, McCarthy, McClean - Long, Keane
SWEDEN (missing Elm, Granqvist, Bengtsson)
Isaksson - Lustig, Nilsson, Antonsson, Olsson - Wernbloom, Ekdal - Larsson, Ibrahimovic, Kacaniklic - Elmander

[GunnerX]

Sweden won after all but no goal from Ibrahimovic who was assisting instead of scoring :/ Anyways some nice info for today.
WC qualifiers Africa: Gambia - Tanzania
Hosts are eyeing a revenge and Tanzania is coming in this match without seven key players including three best strikers, most experienced defender and three important midfielders (Samata, Ulimwengu, Bocco, Abubakar, Athuman, Yondani, Kapombe).
Odds on home team victory are around 1.80..still worth a shot.
MLS league: LA Galaxy - Colorado Rapids
Los Angeles will miss their two best strikers Donovan and Keane who scored 12 out of last 13 Galaxy's goals. Instead young Villareal and McBean will step up. They are also without first goalkeeper Penedo, and chief in defense Gonzalez. Colorado lost only once in last 10 outings and they could surprise here as they dont have much problems with absences except for Torres.

handicap +1 on away team..or X2 is also equivalent ;)

Cheers :)

[GunnerX]

Both winners yesterday..back to Brasil now :D

Corinthias – Nautico

Corinthias is one of the very best teams in the league with very wide and quality bench while Nautico is by far the worst team in the league.
Nautico has obvious problems with quality, especially in the offensive part which is proven by fact that they’ve only scored one goal in the last seven games (nine in whole season). They already had a tight schedule they couldn’t cope with and now they also had some postponed matches to play and all that is a real nightmare for them. This will be their third match in only six days and in last two they lost on home turf without even scoring a goal. These days they’ve also made their FIFTH switch on coaching position in the last five months and it is most obvious that the problem is not in staff but in lack of quality in player roster.
Corinthias has some problems with injuries for this match and will miss kinds of Pato and Emerson but there are still Romarinho and Danilo and I have absolutely no doubt that they will find the way to Nautico’s net.
Hosts have excellent defense which is allowing only 0.44 goals per match and I don’t see how Nautico who scored only once in last seven away games could be a threat here, moreover because Corinthias received only one goal on home turf since end of May (including all competitions!!!!). I expect that trend to continue.

Bet: Away team NOT to score
Odds: 1.80

Equivalent is also home team to win without receiving a goal which can be found at around 2.00 but I prefer first option which is safer.
Cheers ;)

[GunnerX]

SLOVENIA – CYPRUS (WCQ Europe)
Slovenia and Cyprus played seven times so far and not once did Cyprus manage to win. There is absolutely no reason why that trend should be broken today. Their motivation is not on the highest level as they don’t have even theoretical chance to go to Brasil and they have a lot of problems with absences. Striker Cristofi, defender Christoua and winger Efrem are all out including one of their most dangerous offensive player from APOEL, Aloneftis who has a suspension. As for their play it is enough to say that they haven’t scored in more than 340 minutes.
Slovenia on the other hand will be boosted by the return of their captain Cesar and they still have a chance to advance at least to play-offs if they win all the remaining three matches. They’ve had a bit of luck beating Albania recently but their stable and organized, moreover disciplined play will be enough to get them all three points here against last-placed Cyprus.
Bet: 2
Odds: 2.10

[GunnerX]

NAUTICO – GREMIO
Nautico so far managed to collect only 9 points which is 13 less than they need to get to safe zone so in reality no one believes they will be able to stay up in this league. Even the chairman decided to give up – after they fired their last coach (fifth time this season) they decided not to invest in new coaching names so they left the team in hands of inexperienced former assistant.
In last round they’ve managed to get a point away in Corinthias but it was lack of efficiency from opponents side that caused the goalless draw. Only spark of “creativity” from Nautico was kicking the ball as far from their goal as they can. That kind of play brought them only one goal in last 8 rounds, and today they’ll be without two of their best strikers Carioca and Rogerio (suspension and injury).
Gremio is on the other hand on second place, only six points behind leading Cruzeiro and today they’ll try to shorten the gap because Cruzeiro is also going on difficult away trip to Goias where Gremio was also defeated two rounds before. That defeat was the only “black spot” in Gremio’s form – in last seven outings they won six. They do have some absences but those are not so important for the team and are mostly related to defense line which inefficient Nautico is not capable to put in danger. Since they appointed coach Gaucho they’ve found their winning formula and I really don’t see how Nautico will be able get two consecutive positive results against top teams – they wouldn’t be on the last spot if they are really able to do so.

Bet: 2 (Gremio wins)
Odds: 2.00
Cheers ;)

[GunnerX]

Record so far 8 picks = 7 Winners and only 1 loss ;) But since no one is following i'm thinking of shutting down this thread :/

[Kleberson13]

just came across this. Good work so far, keep posting, ill tag along ;)

[GunnerX]

Another nice winner ;) get in :D :D

[GunnerX]

AALEN – MUNICH 1860
Aalen seemed like a solid team beating Kaiserslautern recently but I don’t understand that they can be such major favourites against undoubtedly better Munich who is main candidate for promotion to Bundesliga. Quality difference between these two is major.
Even though this might be a difficult match I think odds on Draw no Bet are exceptionally good. Munich appointed new coach Funkel who by the way lead 5 different clubs to promotions so far and it’s expected for players to be motivated in order to prove their spot in first lineup with new coach.
Bet: DNB away win
Odds: 2.00
Cheers ;)

[GunnerX]

RIED - SALZBURG
I found this nice info on Betprepare site and I think its worth a shot.
Ried will be missing their most creative player Zulj, Ziegel is also injured, defender Janeczek and forward Kreuzer as well as long-term injured Rieter are all out of action for today so the home team will be in a lot of troubles because their previous good results rested on these key players.
Ried and their results in the first seven rounds are to be applauded, but it is time for their winning series to end, as the best team of the league, Salzburg, are coming to town. Salzburg's claim to being best will require proving, of course, but the team coached by German Roger Schmidt will have plenty of motivation to do so.
Fumbles again Ried cost Salzburg their title last year, as they have not managed to beat their tough opponent in four games, squandering as much as nine points through one loss and three ties. Smart men and good sports teams learn from their mistakes though, so the lesson was surely not lost on Salzburg, and they will want payback for all the frustrations from last season.
The guests are arriving to Ried in full, with their strongest lineup at the moment, and a string of players that Ried cannot hope to match. Soriano, Mane, Alan and Kampl are a quartet of offensive aces the home team will find difficult to neutralize.
Bet: 2
Odds: 1.75
Cheers ;)

[GunnerX]

GunnerX
very nice JOB

Bravoooo !!

Cheers mate..its all about finding the right info for the game ;) Had a lot of help from Betprepare this time :D
Keep tuned for more info ;)