Originally posted by AlexD
Gunner's picks and match analysis
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BENFICA - ANDERLECHT
Following a problematic preseason due to a series of poor defensive performances, Benfica have entered the new championship in a similar way, but they are starting to show glimpses of the playing style that brought them wins over respectable European teams in recent seasons, especially in home games. Over the last season alone, Celtic and Spartak fall at Benfica's statium in the CL, and Leverkusen, Bordeaux and Fenerbahce followed in the EL during springtime. All these teams are stronger than Anderlecht, who should be the right opponent for them to continue raising their form after improved performances against Sporting (in the second half) and Pacos, reminiscent of their recent seasons' dynamic and attacking play that brought them some good European achievements ever since Jorge Jesus took charge. Anderlecht are Group C underdogs with a rather young team that lacks experience at the European level, and playing away is not their strong suit. This summer, most of the important players have left the club, so it's small wonder they are already trailing six points behind Standard. They've displayed a respectable goalscoring ability in the championship, as well as some defensive errors. None of Anderlecht center backs are over 23 years of age. They lack the necessary European experience and I believe that they will not be able to stop the home side's forward line led by Cardozo and Lima, who jointly scored 63 goals last season. In a match where the home team is at least a class above the visitors, with both teams better on the attack and relatively weak in defense.
Bet: Over 2,5
Odds: 1.80
Cheers ;)Comment
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Thats what i call a bad luck..two goals in first 30 mins and it still wont go in over..but thats betting, thats life, both goes on..here's another nice pick ;)
SLOVAN BRATISLAVA – NITRA (Slovakian league)
Found this preview on Betprepare and seems like a reasonable bet..think it's worth a shot ;)
Nitra was a good customer to the Slovan's players in the last season as well, and they aparently had a better team then. This current team is, not to use an uglier word, horrible. The dilemma regarding this game was this: home team's win with more than 2.5 goals in the game (bwin@1.75) or more than 2.5 home team's goals. I decided for the second option, because even the first one would hardly pass without Slovan scoring three goals, since Nitra's offense is pretty bad. And Unibet is paying really well for this second option. Yes, you could always say why would they chase the third goal if they're 2-0 in the lead? They didn't have to do that last season either, but they won at home with 4-0 and 5-1, and 3-0 in an away game. Slovan is the most potent offensive team in the league, and after two games in front of empty stands, they will be playing in front of supporters again, and that is definitely an extra motive. They've already gone over this margin twice this season, they stayed under three times, but they missed everything against DAC, and the game against Senice was a derby. And they were up 2-0 against ViOn in front of empty stands. But, more important thing for me right now is what Nitra's defense looks like - in four out of five away games they conceded four goals (Trencin, Kosice, Zilina and Dukla BB). They were under that only against equally bad DAC, they conceded only one goal and lost.
Bet: Home team total goals over 2,5
Odds: 2.10Comment
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OSTERS – HALMSTADS
We're dealing here with clash of two newcomers included in relegation battle and I expect a serious and cautious approach from both sides. Osters is 4 points ahead of Halmstads and their main goal will be to stay on that distance and not to risk to much going gung-ho. On the other hand away team is basing their play on strong defense waiting for counters and set pieces because they don’t have the capacity nor the quality to play differently.
In last two rounds both of them scored only 1 goal total and the offensive part is not their strongest. Except for Syrianska they have the worst attack in the league so far although their defenses are amongst better in the lower part of the Allsvenskan.
Moreover, (according to Betprepare) Halmstads will probably be without their most dangerous player Selaković who sustained an injury in the last round.
I expect a tight match and not so many goalscoring opportunities.
Bet: Under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.80
BOL ;)Comment
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Last one was also a winner..now we go for german league ;)
STUTTGART – EINTRACHT FRANKFURT
After they've made changes on coaching position Stuttgart became more stable and is showing improvement lately. Now when they are out of European competitions their main and only focus is domestic championship in which they now have two victories in a row. In last match on their home arena they’ve trashed Hoffenheim with 6:2.
On the other hand Eintracht is also solid in this season beginning but today they’ll have some serious fatigue problems. Only three days ago they had a tough match against Bordeaux in EL and they are not the team used to playing on both fronts (their own coach Armin Veh admitted they will have problems with fatigue). Moreover, three Eintracht’s key players will be missing this match - Meier, Rosenthal and Schwegler.
I think Stuttgart’s selfconfidence is higher, they are rested and don’t have major problems with absences and anything but their victory today would be a surprise.
Bet: 1
Odds: 2.10
BOL ;)Comment
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EMPOLI – SIENA (Italian Second Div)
This match is a Toscan derby and a face-off of two best offenses in the first five rounds of Serie B. Both coaches announced a fight to win, both of them are hoping for a good performance and both of them announced three great forwards in the first lineup. On one side there are Verdi, Tavano and Maccarone and on the other Rosina, Paolucci and Gianetti. Those are respectable offenses, but they are not the only aces Sarri and Berreta have up their sleeves because both teams have excellent efficiency with free kicks, especially Empoli who look deadly with Tonelli in the goal area after a corner kick. Anything except a good match with at least three goals would be a big surprise.
Bet: Over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.95
BOL ;)Comment
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LAHTI – JARO
Lahti is in excellent shape at the time, winning four out of last five matches. They also have strong motivation to fight for the third place that leads to Europe and besides that they will be boosted by the return of their top goalscorer Rafael who was suspended for the last three matches.
On the other hand Jaro is currently way out of form with five losses in a row and in most of them they were outplayed by great margin. Their motivation is not something they can rely on since they’ve already fulfilled their goal – escaping relegation zone.
Lahti has everything to play in this match and they are in front of home crowd while Jaro has nothing to play and hasn’t won away since May.
Bet: 1
Odds: 1.70
BOL ;)Comment
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Back on winning tracks with Jaro yesterday ;) Hope Nice can do the same and earn us some money :D
NICE – GUINGAMP
***absent players
Nice: Maupay, Anin, Mah. Traore, Eysseric, Bautheac
Guingamp: Vivian, Cerdan, Pereira, Samassa
Guingamp had a lot of luck so far. First of all Bastia gave them two unnecessary penalties and they took only one point, they’ve won against Sochaux who had a lot of problems in that match (injuries, new players, poor form), they’ve barely managed to get a point against Reims when opposing team had problems in the attacking part and all that doesn’t seem very impressive from the Guingamp side. Moreover, the point won against Reims is all they’ve managed to get on the road this season.
Nice on the other hand is a strong team and they’ll be looking for reaction after loss away in Nantes. They’ll be playing on new stadium, with full support of home crowd since they are unbeaten at home this season.
Bet: 1
Odds: 2.00
BOL ;)Comment
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Yesterday we made some money with Nice and today we switch on Goteborg ;)
KALMAR - GOTEBORG
Although Kalmar are playing a solid game recently, I am not convinced that they will be able to parry their guest neither in quality not in motivation. The Kalmar defense, as mentioned in the preview, looks very stable at the moment, but that has a lot to do with the schedule they've been having. They played rather more defensive teams in their last five games, such as Gefle, AIK, Halmstads, and it's no wonder they managed to keep their net intact. That will definitely be much more difficult against a team such as Goteborg, which they've already proven earlier against Malmo, who loaded them up with four goals. Goteborg are in dire need of points at the moment, and cannot afford a fumble here. They are one of the teams with the best form in the championship at the moment, I'd even dare say the most impressive, looking at their results. Against the opponents Kalmar got one point from, playing no-goal ties (Gefle, AIK, Atvidabergs), Goteborg scored high wins and it is hard to say which part of their game is more impressive - the killer offense or the tough, impenetrable defense. Aside from that, the home team will again be missing their best midfielder and offense player Soderqvist, which makes it difficult for them to strike back. Anything other than Goteborg winning this, as currently the better and more motivated team, would be a surprise
Bet: 2
Odds: 2.10
BOL ;)Comment
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ZENIT vs AUSTIA VIENNA
Zenit has excellent attacking skills, they have the creativity and great finishing. In last three games in domestic championship theyve scored 12 goals and their average this season is more than 3 per match!! They have almost none problems with absences, only Sirokov has minor injury and might be spared for this match.
Austria showed some solid performances recently but it was mainly due to home turf and their away form is not that impressive. They are the weakest of all opponents in group G and since the others (Porto, Zenit and Atletico) are more or less even team it will be very significant for them to get past Austria with ease.
Moreover team from Austria couldnt even handle the pressure in their championship, losing two games in a row and according to Betprepare theyll be seriously weakened by the injuries of Stankovic and Rogulj, two first-team players, as well as Gorgon, Grunwald and Dilaver.
Even if Austria was to come with full squad it would be a surprise if they managed to avoid serious defeat here in Russia and with these absences it will be even harder for them.
Bet: -1,5 handicap
Tip: 1
Odds: 1.75
Cheers ;)Comment
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CHERNOMORETS ODESSA - PSV
I expect both teams here to be primarily focused on tight defense and this is why. For Odessa it’s their style of play, especially when they host big names like PSV today. Besides that they’ve got all three points in Zagreb and a draw here against one of the group favorites would suit them more than well.
Odessa’s defense line is also impressive, in last five games on home turf they’ve allowed only one goal and this season no one was able to outclass them.
On the other hand PSV will be focused not to lose today and coach Cocu prepared a tight, defensive lineup 4-2-3-1 with only one striker up front. The main reason for are absences of captain and first goalscorer Wijnaldum and important striker Park who are both missing this match as well as some defensive players so they decided to bring more stability to defense.
I don’t expect too much goals today and the goal margin should stay under 2,5 goals.
Bet: Under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.85
BOL ;)Comment
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MLS Houston Dynamo - Kansas City
Kansas won against Columbus with referee help and luck, but they did not look as good as in their previous few matches. Their front line is obviously shaken after they sold Kamara and coach Vermes is rotating a lot and trying different trios, but he still has not found a solution. Their defense and midfield are without best players Zusi and Besler (players that take all set pieces) so I do not see a phase of this match in which they could be better than their hosts who started playing better, are rested and have more players at their disposal.
Home team win is a good option, as is that Kansas will not score a goal. But since the visiting team will not take any risk until they find themselves chasing the score, I recommend higher stake on a match without a draw. I think that the visiting team win, if there is no red cards and if some crazy situations do not develop during the match, is highly unlikely.
Bet: Draw no bet
Tip: 1
Odds: 1.70
BOL ;)Comment
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