PrimeTime Euro 2012 Threat

[PrimeTime]

I had a great time following the World Cup on this forum so I thought I'd make a go at documenting my thoughts and plays on Euro 2012.

General thoughts on the Tournament:
With Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Barca and Chelsea going so deep in the Champions League this year I think we could see some upsets this year. Germany and Spain are the obvious favorites but there are some big questions that need to be asked of each.

Germany has the deepest squad with the most athleticism, but will they be focused? With the Bayern players suffering a gut-wrenching defeat in front of their home crowd in the Champions League final there could be some fatigue and frazzled nerves. The Bayern players joined the squad late so I wonder about their cohesion. They have so much talent but will playing in the "Group of Death" wear them down? At +315 there is some value.

I feel that fatigue will play a factor for Spain as well. All of their starters played long seasons with the clubs campaigning in European football. They already lack physicality and Puyol is out with injury. Lots of questions about how Del Bosque will put the side together, will he play the Barca 4-3-3? In my opinion Llorente would be a great start as their talismanic striker but he's not the type of player that fits into their 4-3-3 flowing style of football. Not sure how he can find places for Alonso, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta, Cazorla, Mata, Silva, Jordi Alba, Torres, etc. etc. etc. With the fatigue, injury concerns and cohesion questions, not enough value for me to lay on Spain.

Netherlands is always a tempting play given their unbelievable attack. They have a very very interesting team this year, probably the most complete Holland team I have seen for some years. In my opinion they should be playing a 4-2-3-1. Heitinga and Mathijsen are strong center backs, not very quick - but with Van Bommel and De Jong playing as holding midfielders they provide a good shield to the defense and some much needed physicality. At that point the question becomes how do you mix Robben, Affellay, Van der Vaart, Sneijder, Strootman or Kuyt into the 3 attacking midfielders. Good problem to have. I am partial to the Big Game Hunter Klaas-Jan Huntelaar up front but it is hard to argue against Van Persie after the season he had.

France is becoming the sexy pick as the underdog to win after these big three. They have some great creativity up front (I'll be on a few of their players to win the scoring crown) but the defense is suspect. For the life of me I can't figure out why Mexes is starting. I think they win the group running away but how far they go in the knockout stage depends on M'Vila's health.

Italy has looked god-awful in their tune-up friendly matches. I can't shake the feeling that Italy always disappoints when they are the favorites, but when their backs are against the wall and everyone expects disaster they somehow put it together. They have a sound backline with the Juve connection, and an interesting combo of midfield players and strikers. No one understands defending like the Italians and I think their backline helps them squeak into the knockout stage and then they start putting it together and making some noise.

England - I thought they had a chance to make some noise in the knockout stages but they have been decimated by injuries and I have to think the Rio Ferdinand saga has driven a spike through the lockerroom mood. With Cahill in the squad and a 3/4 Chelsea backline I felt a lot better about them knowing that they could defend. With him out they really have no strength they can hang their hat on. Hart is solid but Terry is banged up, Cole is world class but has been run ragged after a long season. The midfield is completely ordinary and lacks any creativity. They will miss Rooney for two games and will likely start Welbeck or Carroll up front with Ashley Young tucked in behind....laughable. If it were me I'd start Oxlade-Chamberlain and Walcott wide and just hope they can out-pace teams on the flanks. The way this team plays they will be lucky to make it out of the group.

I like Russia as a long shot. Many of the players play together in league. Arshavin is rounding into form and they have a couple of exciting young players in Kerzhakov and Dzagoev. They could make some noise.

Croatia is also worthy of a longshot. Greece and Ireland are so well-organized they will be tough to beat.

Tournament Winner Futures Picks:
Germany: Risk 5 units to win 15
France: Risk 1.5 units to win 15
Holland: Risk 2.5 units to win 17.5
Italy: Risk 2.5 units to win 30
Russia: Risk 1 unit to win 20
Croatia: Risk 1 unit to win 40
Greece: Risk 1 unit to win 66
Ireland: Risk 1 unit to win 66

Will post my picks for leading scorer tomorrow.

[NevadaJay]

Great write up. Thank you for taking the time.

I'm on the Netherlands for a nice chunk of change. I think they have the talent and hopefully rested legs to outlast the 3.1 weeks ahead.

[PrimeTime]

Golden Boot Predictions

Predicting the Golden Boot at this year's tournament will be a tough, tough task. I mentioned the fatigue factor in my previous post and if the last World Cup taught us anything, it's that these international teams won't be very cohesive early on. With all these headwinds, I don't expect to see a lot of expansive football and the Golden Boot could be won by someone scoring just 3 goals. David Villa won Golden Boot at Euro 2008 with just 4.

That being said, I did hit a winner in the 2010 World Cup with my pick of Wesley Sneijder....so no pressure :sm:

Picking the Golden Boot is no real science. You try to find players in good form, on teams that play a more attacking style, and that will potentially go deep in the tournament - at a good value. Don't have a ton of time to go into my reasoning (you'll probably see a theme developing) but I'll throw out my picks and what I consider to be the best value:

Thomas Muller: Risk 3 Units to win 75
Karim Benzema: Risk 2 Units to win 28
Franc Ribery: Risk 2.5 Units to win 82.5
Andres Iniesta Risk 1 Unit to win 50
Arjen Robben: Risk 1 Unit to win 40
Robin Van Persie: Risk 2.2 Units to win 19.80


:beerbang::beerbang::beerbang::

Post with my picks for tomorrow is coming...

[PrimeTime]

Poland v. Greece

My strategy to start the tournament will be to lay pretty small early on, hopefully develop some momentum and start making some bigger bets when it becomes more clear how each squad will play together.

I expect a fairly uneventful first match to start. Poland will play a defensive style and look to counter attack on the flanks. Dortmund combo of right-back Piszczek and right-winger Blaszczkowski will look to break down the right with Lewandowski working the channels and hoping to latch onto a cross from his club teammates. Poland have an interesting style that sort of mimics what Bayern do with Ribery and Robben. Left-back Boenisch is right footed and looks to cut inside, and Right-back Piszczek is left footed and looks to cut inside. The number 10 player Obraniak will play more on the outside than creating in the middle.

Greece plays a very dull defensive style, hoping to snatch goals from set pieces. Oddly enough they play a perplexing 4-3-3 with the tactics looking more like a 7-3. They keep lots of men behind the ball and don't really have the speed to counter and link up the backline with the attacking three.

So all that said, obviously I'm leaning Under on this one. Several ways to play that...

UNDER 2 Goals: Risk 4 Units to win 3.08
Draw 0-0: Risk 2 Units to win 12
Both Teams to Score: Risk 2 Units to win 1.25.
Time of First Goal: After 27th Minute - Risk 2 Units to win 1.82

:beerbang::beerbang:

[PrimeTime]

Correction on the previous post - both teams to score is a NO.

[PrimeTime]

Line move

I see the Poland v. Greece line moved. Poland was at -1/2 yeaterday and you can now get them at a pick for -250 juice on Bodog. This was the line I wanted originally but now I think it could be a trap. Poland has the Dortmund connection but they are still a defensive team and I wont pay -250 for them against a well-organized Greece. The under is the play, sticking with what I added yesterday.

Will likely be on Russia later today...

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

BOL PrimeTime!

Our thoughts go against one another, but go get that $$$!

[PrimeTime]

Thanks Hero, from what I remember from World Cup you are a great capper. Hate to be on the other side of your plays. BOL to all today.

I am stuck at work so I won't be watching live. Will be watching the DVR later this afternoon if I can sneak away early. Will try to post in-game as much as I can this tourney.

:beerbang:

[PrimeTime]

Russia Pick (-145): Risk 3 Units to win 2.07.

[PrimeTime]

After a great dinner and a movie (Prometheus = awesome) with the wife I get a chance to check out these first two games after avoiding the media all day. :beer2:

Wow what an opening match! Did not expect Poland to come out guns blazing in that first half. Everyone thought the right flank would be the focal point of their attack but what surprised me was how exposed Greece left themselves. No idea what Holebas and Samaras on the Greece left side were doing in the first half, Poland ran all over them and should have made it 2 or 3-0.

Oddly enough the unbelievably harsh red card seemed to wake Greece up and put them back in the style they should have been playing in the first place. They got men behind the ball and stayed compact. Poland could not break them down and had no answer.

Greece is just a painful to watch. They are so slow, tedious, disconnected and completely devoid of creativity. Strangely that is how they get results - they stay organized (besides the first half of this match) lull teams to sleep and snatch an opportunity to score from nowhere.

On to the Russia v. Czech Republic match. The more I watch Russia the more I like them. They have the formula to do very well in this tournament. Solid club connections mean a cohesive, well-organized team. They are quick, technically sound and have a good understanding of how the team should be playing. They played a textbook match and let the Czechs attempt to push up and control the midfield. This left gaps for Zyranov and Shirokov to pick up the ball and link with Kerzhakov to start the deadly counterattacks. I thought Arshavin and Dzagoev had great games drifting into the middle from the flanks on the counterattacks. Russia got out to an early lead and the Czechs played into their hands the rest of the game. That's the thing, the harder you push up against Russia the more vulnerable you leave yourselves on the counterattack. Would be real interested to see how Russia would do against Netherlands or Germany.


UNDER 2 Goals: Risk 4 Units to win 3.08 PUSH
Draw 0-0: Risk 2 Units to win 12 LOSS
Both Teams to Score - No: Risk 2 Units to win 1.25. LOSS
Time of First Goal: After 27th Minute - Risk 2 Units to win 1.82 LOSS
Russia Pick (-145): Risk 3 Units to win 2.07. WIN

Results:
1-1-3. -3.93 Units

[PrimeTime]

Netherlands vs. Denmark
This game will be decided by who wins the midfield battle. Denmark have a great young creative player in Eriksen. They play a very interesting 4-2-1-3 style with two holding midfielders shielding the backline and Eriksen finding space and creating for the attacking players. Bendtner is a prototypical forward for this system being able to hold the ball up for the other attackers. How I play this game will depend on how van Marwijk puts together the Netherlands midfield. I'm thinking he sticks with De Jong and Van Bommel as holding midfielders, which I think could be a disappointment. People want to see Netherlands play expansive, flowing football and De Jong and Van Bommel are needed against stronger sides but they hold up the build up play against weaker sides. If De Jong and Van Bommel start I will take a shot on Denmark +1. If Strootman or Van der Vaart play alongside Van Bommel I will probably play the over 2.5 goals. We'll see tomorrow....

:beerbang:

[PrimeTime]

Denmark trot out the 4-2-1-3 as expected. Anderson - Poulsen, Agger Kjaer Jacobson - Kvist, Zimling - Krohn-Dehli, Eriksen, Rommedahl - Bendtner.

Netherlands coming out with a similar 4-2-3-1. Stekelenburg - Van der Wiel, Heitinga, Vlaar, Willems - Van Bommel, de Jong - Robben, Sneijder, Afellay - RVP.

Although de Jong and Van Bommel provide the most stability, I was really hoping for a Strootman, Van Bommel partnership as the holding duo. I really think it would open up the game more. Can't really blame van Marwijk for starting conservatively in this group though. Sneijder will have to do a lot of work and Affellay and Robben will have to drop back deeper to link up with the midfield and start the flowing attack. I just don't think this will be the unbelievable Netherlands team that everyone expects.

This will be a great midfield battle and I think Denmark +1 is worth a shot. If Denmark were playing in Group A or maybe even Group D they could be tipped to advance. That said, this is NOT a conventional pick and I could be eating my words given how dangerous Netherlands is.....we'll see.

Denmark +1 Risk 3 Units to win 2.14.

[PrimeTime]

Halftime - Netherlands 0-1 Denmark.

Very exciting first half. I understand why van Marwijk wants van Bommel and de Jong - the back line looks very shaky. Robben and Afellay look very dangerous on the flanks. The Oranje very well could have had 2 of 3 goals if Robben and Van Persie would have taken their chances.

Denmark look solid. Very impressed with Bendtner. Will be curious to see what changes the Oranje make.

:beerbang:

[PrimeTime]

Van der Vaart and Huntelaar on. Afellay and de Jong off. Good change in my opinion. Afellay has had an injury-plagued season and Rafa will provide fresh legs and creativity. The Big Game Hunter is a tireless worker, he will run all over the pitch to try and find chances...just the type you want on right now to snatch a goal.

[PrimeTime]

On Germany here. Some late money coming in on Portugal but I dont see them winning. I will take the Germany pick here with a bit higher risk.

Germany pick (-185) risk 5 units.