World Cup Semifinal Tuesday

[BoilerBacker]

Uruguay +500 in a semifinal ?? Urug win or draw +120....? LMAO

Something tells me books are tempting people to play Uruguay big time.

Netherlands -135 (Betus)........................................... ......5*

GL :beerbang:

[Stifler's Mom]

I would agree with your thinking on the line, but yet it seems like no one has the slightest interest in playing Uruguay or the draw, so what choice do the books have but to make the Dutch a big fave?

Everything i read ranges from "easy pick on Netherlands", "going large on Netherlands", etc, and the general consensus to me seems to be that "after beating Brazil" and "having not lost a match since 2008", how could Netherlands not roll over Uruguay, whom I think most think are fortunate to be here, much more so than the Dutch, and certainly using the old public favorite handicapping style "Uruguay isn't nearly as good as Brazil so this is a no brainer".

All things I've read.

Now I have no real grounds to disagree or make any sort of case that Uruguay has a legit shot, or whatever, as I am certainly not soccer enlightened in the least, but imho the Netherlands are a HUGE public play, at least from the admittedly small sample size I have seen, and I'm surprised to see them being called the "sharp" play as well. That may be the case, but then why the big line move against them?

If you believe the numbers the sportsbooks release, there are between 75% to 80% on Netherlands, about 15% on Uruguay, and 5% to to 10% looking for the draw.

With that being said, literally 13 of 14 bets I have counted just this morning between here and one other similar site are on Netherlands to advance in regulation time, so in this case the sportsbook's numbers seem to hold true, and if that's the case, the books have to be getting lopsided public money on Netherlands, yet the line has come from -200 down to now you got it at -135? Sitting on -166 at Sportsbook.com and -167 at Sports Interaction?

WTF?

Good luck :thumbs:

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

It seems to me that everyone who are on the Netherlands, are on them for the wrong reasons.

Stifler is 100% correct. The public thought process is exactly that. Minus the handball by Suarez, Uruguay has earned every bit of what they accomplished so far, and in my opinion, have the most underrated player in the world on their team.

If Uruguay can manage to draw in regular time, it will be a miracle. With the line-up shake, all chemistry is lost, and arms will be in the air for the full 90. I don't doubt their determination though.. their hustle should keep them in this game for a little while at least.


The public think The Netherlands are WAY better than Uruguay. "They beat Brazil!", "They haven't lost in 24 matches", ect. They aren't as good as advertised. No ******* way. Are they BETTER than Uruguay? NO. Will they be better than Uruguay TODAY? YES!

The Dutch will prove they can maul a team as only -130/-200 favorites. The winner of Germany/Spain are going to take them out to the tool shed when they play. The Dutch will go into that game about +280 dogs in regulation, and the public will have no fear laying on them... having the "no line is too good to be true" thought fresh in their memory. This will be heightened by the fact neither Spain, nor Germany will look stellar against each other.


Maybe i'm way off base, but this all sure feels right. I have seen this done time, and time again down the stretch of EPL, La Liga, and other major leagues. Although no odds stacked higher then what Uruguay will have to deal with today.

Books are pretty much split down the middle right now with the line fluctuation.

GL Boiler! :beerbang:

[Stifler's Mom]

Hero, your analysis has been spot on through this whole tournament on just about every match, and makes sense again here.

I couldn't help but wonder why, if it seems like most people are betting Netherlands for either the right or wrong reasons, that the line is moving as if the money is coming in on Uruguay.

I know sometimes the book's numbers seem inflated, but the message boards seem to back up the love for the Dutch here.

Not to say bigger money couldn't be coming in on Uruguay and it's the bigger players who are wrong.

In any case, I'm certainly in no position to disagree with anyone about the correct side in a soccer match, but rather just wanted to throw my point of view out there and see what some of you thought.

Thanks for the response and GL to all of you betting this one

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Hero, your analysis has been spot on through this whole tournament on just about every match, and makes sense again here.

I couldn't help but wonder why, if it seems like most people are betting Netherlands for either the right or wrong reasons, that the line is moving as if the money is coming in on Uruguay.

I know sometimes the book's numbers seem inflated, but the message boards seem to back up the love for the Dutch here.

Not to say bigger money couldn't be coming in on Uruguay and it's the bigger players who are wrong.

In any case, I'm certainly in no position to disagree with anyone about the correct side in a soccer match, but rather just wanted to throw my point of view out there and see what some of you thought.

Thanks for the response and GL to all of you betting this one

I know that you are no stranger to line movement. I have seen you post lots of intelligent insight on the subject before. So whether you are out of your element, or not with the game of soccer, your concern regarding the line movement is most definitely valid.

I think the public outlook on this game varies by country. The Dutch are a very unpopular pick in most parts of Europe. They boast a pretty "impressive" streak, that most European countries are getting sick of hearing about. BBC is really hyping up Uruguay, usually only pointing out the positives. Similar to ESPN with the USA's run.

I think that may be a reason for the line movement? As I really do believe they are getting there fair share of money on Uruguay. But as I said in my thread, i'm pretty **** when it comes to line movement. I constantly have been placing my bets at the wrong time, getting almost the worst lines available. :laughing:

That's just my 0.02. I try not to put too much stock in line movement, as i'll only psych myself out. If The Netherlands go on the romp Uruguay, it will probably seem like my theory on the line movement was spot on... when in reality, it probably had nothing to do with the Championship game. :laughing:

We'll see what happens though. GL everyone! :thumbs:

[BoilerBacker]

Thanks for the great comments guys.

My thinking was more towards the Uruguay line. +500 tells me they did not think there was a chance in hell Uruguay wins it. I typically wager much like Stif. I hate following the pub.

By the way....just checked and I made a mistake on where I got my line. It was at Sportbet/5Dimes.

[Stifler's Mom]

You guys were right on it seems by the result.

Nice :thumbs: :beerbang:

[BoilerBacker]

Stif....see that piece of crap ending I took in the St L - Col game.... ?

:puke:

[Stifler's Mom]

Just on a highlight this morning, and no, I didn't have a bet on it, lol.

Weird too cause St Louis had statistically a top 3 bullpen in all of MLB last I checked. That's the kind of **** you expect from Arizona, lol. The good old Orioles pen squandered a decent lead last night too.

Did you see where the idiot fan in Seattle cost them the tying run by interfering with a ball in play?