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Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Stewart Cink to win 35/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Cink really should have won this event last year: he had chances inside 20-feet in each of the first three holes of the playoff last year, before Tiger won on the 4th hole. But given that he had also been the wire-to-wire champion in 2004, that performance last year was clearly no flash in the pan and he is expected to play just as well around Firestone this year. On each of those occasions, he came into the event in good form and that is also the case this year: he was impressive when finishing 6th in the British Open two weeks ago and had finished in the top-5 in three of his previous seven PGA Tour starts. I would have expected no more than 28/1 given this record.
David Toms to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
Ignore Toms' missed cut at Carnoustie, he had finished in the top-50 in the British Open just once since 2000. Instead, concentrate on his form on the PGA Tour - 3rd, 5th and 6th in his last three starts - and his form in this event - 6th, 9th and 8th in the last three years - and it is easy to see why he will be well-backed this week.
Kenny Perry to win 80/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Backing Perry this week in the hope that he can hit the front early on as he is one of the best front-runners on this Tour. Of the last six occasions that has held at least a share of the lead heading into the final round, he has won five times. The sole occasion that he was unsuccessful was in this event (2005) when he was tied with Tiger for the lead. But there is more than just a 'Tiger intimidation' factor here: because of bad weather, he had to return to the course early on the Sunday for a 10-foot birdie putt on the last green (which he missed) and then had to wait six hours before teeing off with Tiger in the last round. He was winning the duel and had a two-shot lead at the turn, but, presumably, fatigue as well as pressure caught up with him and he faltered down the stretch. He may be 47 next week, but he has turned his game back to the levels that it was in 2005 (top-15 finishes in each of his last five starts) so he may win yet again in Ohio.
Stewart Cink to win 35/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Cink really should have won this event last year: he had chances inside 20-feet in each of the first three holes of the playoff last year, before Tiger won on the 4th hole. But given that he had also been the wire-to-wire champion in 2004, that performance last year was clearly no flash in the pan and he is expected to play just as well around Firestone this year. On each of those occasions, he came into the event in good form and that is also the case this year: he was impressive when finishing 6th in the British Open two weeks ago and had finished in the top-5 in three of his previous seven PGA Tour starts. I would have expected no more than 28/1 given this record.
David Toms to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
Ignore Toms' missed cut at Carnoustie, he had finished in the top-50 in the British Open just once since 2000. Instead, concentrate on his form on the PGA Tour - 3rd, 5th and 6th in his last three starts - and his form in this event - 6th, 9th and 8th in the last three years - and it is easy to see why he will be well-backed this week.
Kenny Perry to win 80/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Backing Perry this week in the hope that he can hit the front early on as he is one of the best front-runners on this Tour. Of the last six occasions that has held at least a share of the lead heading into the final round, he has won five times. The sole occasion that he was unsuccessful was in this event (2005) when he was tied with Tiger for the lead. But there is more than just a 'Tiger intimidation' factor here: because of bad weather, he had to return to the course early on the Sunday for a 10-foot birdie putt on the last green (which he missed) and then had to wait six hours before teeing off with Tiger in the last round. He was winning the duel and had a two-shot lead at the turn, but, presumably, fatigue as well as pressure caught up with him and he faltered down the stretch. He may be 47 next week, but he has turned his game back to the levels that it was in 2005 (top-15 finishes in each of his last five starts) so he may win yet again in Ohio.
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