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JoePa's FedEx St. Jude Classic
FedEx St. Jude Classic -
TPC Southwind in Memphis can be a steamy affair with very challenging greens and average scores in the 70+ since 2003. The course ranked 3rd in GIR last year with just 56.83% of the greens hit in regulation, which marks the 4th time in the last five years that TPC Southwind ranked in the Top 5 of hardest greens to hit so good GIR and bogey avoidance stats are a premium.
DAVID TOMS 12/1 to win outright - Toms hasn't played since his emotional win at Colonial after losing in a playoff at The Players. So he should be well rested and returns to TPC Southwind where he has 2 wins and 7 Top 10s in his last 9 starts. On tour Toms ranks 2nd in GIR at at lofty 71.93%---the tour average is 63.71%---and is also 2nd in bogey avoidance. On the year Toms has a T3rd at the Arnie Palmer, T5th at the Mayakoba Classic, has a 73.56% driving accuracy percentage well above the tour average of 60%.
ZACH JOHNSON 16/1 to win outright - Johnson has posted 2 Top 12s in his last three starts which includes a 4th at Colonial. He should be well rested and has Top 12s in each of his two previous St. Jude appearances. He is 4th in strokes gained putting and 15th in bogey avoidance, has made 10 cuts in 12 starts this season, he's well ahead of the tour average in scrambling 64% to 56%, hits 65% GIR, and 70% in driving accuracy.
JOHN SENDEN 35/1 to win outright - Senden finished with a T7th last week at The Memorial with a final round 68. He has 9 Top 25 finishes this season and 2 Top 10s, the other being a T8th at Colonial. He currently ranks 10th in GIR, 42nd in bogey avoidance, and has 2 Top 10s in his last four starts at the St. Jude. Putting has been his friend this year, and is probably the best he's enjoyed over his career. He makes 96% of 5-footers, 60% of the 5-10 foot variety, and is 36th in total putting on tour.
Also worth considering this week are:
Sergio Garcia (25/1 to win outright) who has made 7 cuts in 7 tournaments this season, ranks 27th in GIR, 19th in bogey avoidance, and 1st in actual scoring average before the cut.
Jonathan Byrd (25/1 to win outright) finished in a T7th at The Memorial despite a final round 73. It was his 4th Top 10 on the year. He ranks 15th in GIR and 11th in bogey avoidance. His approach averages are stellar which is a testament to his GIR as he ranks 5th in approaches from 50-125 yards, 6th in approaches from 75-100 yards, 7th from 100-175 yards, and 12th from 175-200. He won the Hyundai, and was 2nd at Wells Fargo.
Brendan Steele (100/1 to win outright) has made 9 cuts in his 17 starts this year and won the Valero Texas Open which is his lone Top 10 on the season. He does have 3 Top 25s, is 30th in the FedEx standings, 34th in total driving, has a 65% GIR, ranks 12th in par 3 birdies or better and 21st in par 5 birdies or better. Despite finishing T51st at The Memorial he played the par 5s in 11 under for the weekend. He'll probably be my Speculative Play of the Week unless I find another worthy rookie candidate.
TPC Southwind in Memphis can be a steamy affair with very challenging greens and average scores in the 70+ since 2003. The course ranked 3rd in GIR last year with just 56.83% of the greens hit in regulation, which marks the 4th time in the last five years that TPC Southwind ranked in the Top 5 of hardest greens to hit so good GIR and bogey avoidance stats are a premium.
DAVID TOMS 12/1 to win outright - Toms hasn't played since his emotional win at Colonial after losing in a playoff at The Players. So he should be well rested and returns to TPC Southwind where he has 2 wins and 7 Top 10s in his last 9 starts. On tour Toms ranks 2nd in GIR at at lofty 71.93%---the tour average is 63.71%---and is also 2nd in bogey avoidance. On the year Toms has a T3rd at the Arnie Palmer, T5th at the Mayakoba Classic, has a 73.56% driving accuracy percentage well above the tour average of 60%.
ZACH JOHNSON 16/1 to win outright - Johnson has posted 2 Top 12s in his last three starts which includes a 4th at Colonial. He should be well rested and has Top 12s in each of his two previous St. Jude appearances. He is 4th in strokes gained putting and 15th in bogey avoidance, has made 10 cuts in 12 starts this season, he's well ahead of the tour average in scrambling 64% to 56%, hits 65% GIR, and 70% in driving accuracy.
JOHN SENDEN 35/1 to win outright - Senden finished with a T7th last week at The Memorial with a final round 68. He has 9 Top 25 finishes this season and 2 Top 10s, the other being a T8th at Colonial. He currently ranks 10th in GIR, 42nd in bogey avoidance, and has 2 Top 10s in his last four starts at the St. Jude. Putting has been his friend this year, and is probably the best he's enjoyed over his career. He makes 96% of 5-footers, 60% of the 5-10 foot variety, and is 36th in total putting on tour.
Also worth considering this week are:
Sergio Garcia (25/1 to win outright) who has made 7 cuts in 7 tournaments this season, ranks 27th in GIR, 19th in bogey avoidance, and 1st in actual scoring average before the cut.
Jonathan Byrd (25/1 to win outright) finished in a T7th at The Memorial despite a final round 73. It was his 4th Top 10 on the year. He ranks 15th in GIR and 11th in bogey avoidance. His approach averages are stellar which is a testament to his GIR as he ranks 5th in approaches from 50-125 yards, 6th in approaches from 75-100 yards, 7th from 100-175 yards, and 12th from 175-200. He won the Hyundai, and was 2nd at Wells Fargo.
Brendan Steele (100/1 to win outright) has made 9 cuts in his 17 starts this year and won the Valero Texas Open which is his lone Top 10 on the season. He does have 3 Top 25s, is 30th in the FedEx standings, 34th in total driving, has a 65% GIR, ranks 12th in par 3 birdies or better and 21st in par 5 birdies or better. Despite finishing T51st at The Memorial he played the par 5s in 11 under for the weekend. He'll probably be my Speculative Play of the Week unless I find another worthy rookie candidate.