JoePa's TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP Picks

[joepa66]

THE TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP - Really the Top 5 have a true shot at winning the FedEx Cup with the points reset, and I am only backing two golfers ranked in the top 5 and looking for the players outside the top 5 with the best chances of winning. Man, with the short card the odds are horrible trying to wager on anyone ranking in the Top10 so I'm looking at "Each Way" predictions on almost every wager.

JIM FURYK 14/1 TO WIN OUTRIGHT 1/4 EACH WAY 1-2-3-4 - (FedEx Rank 3rd) Jimbo has not won since mid-season in 2007, but he's a Top10 finishing machine with 9 this season and 6 Top10s at East Lake ranking him 4th in best average finish at the Tour Championship at 9.1. He finished T6th in 2008. Great course form since he has broken par in 8 of his last 12 rounds at East Lake!

STEVE STRICKER 4/1 TO FINISH TOP FIVE - (FedEx Rank 2nd) Caught a bit of a swoon after winning The Barclays his third win of the season. He was very emotional and said he was so tired emotionally and physically by the time the BMW rolled around. However, hes he's had one and one-half weeks off from competition and should be well rested for the Tour Championship. He ranks 2nd in scrambling and putt per GIR. Great recent form to go along with 2 Top10s in 5 starts at the Tour Championship.

PADRAIG HARRINGTON 14/1 TO WIN OUTRIGHT - (FedEx Rank 6th) Finished in the Top10 in all of his last five starts to get to Atlanta. Before the playoffs he was 52nd in scrambling and now he ranks 13th! All started going better for Paddy at Firestone, now if only he could shake off the final round hiccup he seems to suffer each week. His form has been great the second half of the season and he has 1 Top10 in 3 Tour Championship starts.

SCOTT VERPLANK 11/2 TO FINISH TOP 5 - (FedEx Rank 8th) Most important is that he's got great recent form with Top10 finishes in 2 of the 3 FedEx playoff events ( T9th at The Barclays and T2nd at the Deutsche Bank). A real plus is that he has 6 Tops10s in 7 Tour Championship events with an average finish of 6.9. He's 7th our Tour in driving accuracy, 23rd in GIR, 10th in putts per GIR, and 14th in scoring average. Great course and recent form!

HUNTER MAHAN 33/1 TO WIN OUTRIGHT 1/4 EACH WAY 1-2-3-4- - (FedEx Rank 23rd) Oh how the mighty seem to have fallen and been forgotten about! He's struggled throughout the playoffs with a T20th at The Barclays, T36th at the Deutsche Bank, and T38th at the BMW. Still, he's made it to Atlanta in each of the first two years of the playoffs, where he T5th at East Lake in 2007. A President's Cup nomination should be great for his confidence and he still riding some lofty rankings as he's 4th in birdie average, 6th in scoring average, 14th in GIR, 5th in par breakers, and 5th in par 4 birdies or better.

[joepa66]

You know the top five, but here are five others to watch
Sep. 22, 2009
By Melanie Hauser, PGATOUR.COM Correspondent

It's not over 'til it's over. Really. Honest. Swear on Yogi Berra, a red Nike shirt and real spikes. Or a hunting bow. Or that ampersand swing. Or . . .

You get the picture. The top five at this week's TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola control their own destiny. Win at East Lake and win the FedExCup. It doesn't matter what the other four do, let alone the remaining 25.

Pretty simple. Nice and neat. And, considering the way he's been playing, pretty well mostly in the hands of Tiger Woods. Then again, this is golf. Which -- with not one shot played yet -- means it's SO not close to over.

Points system III -- the tweak of the tweak to the inaugural FedExCup -- has guaranteed that anyone in the field has a chance to win. None of the old it's over before the final round. Of course, the combinations and permutations necessary for either John Senden or Jerry Kelly -- Nos. 30 and 29, respectively -- to win are, well, complex, but possible nonetheless.

We need not belabor the top five. You know them. You know what they've done and, for them, it's simply win or lose. And yes, they're the short-listers. Tiger, Steve Stricker, Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson and Heath Slocum, in order. Just in case you've forgotten.

But who -- if the entire top five, well, either sink or stumble on the soggy layout in Atlanta -- could surprise us? Who could jump up out of relatively nowhere and grab this one away? We thought you'd never ask.

We'll steer clear of Padraig Harrington -- No. 6 on your list -- because, well, if he wins and Tiger finishes third, it's Paddy's. That's definitely do-able. And with him at sixth, it's really the Big Six, not just Five.

There's a quick cut at No. 24, meaning we'll knock out Angel Cabrera, Stewart Cink, Luke Donald and Mike Weir because even if they do win THE TOUR Championship, it's doubtful that Tiger, who's won here, will finish below 18th.

Why? With the exception of missing the cut at the British Open, Tiger hasn't finished worse than tied for 11th in a stroke play event all year.

That said, Nos. 24-28 could all win the event, but need the most help from the entire top five to win the FedExCup. And it's hard to see that many dominoes falling into place.

So who's an interesting choice with less top-five baggage to overcome?

We're liking Scott VERR-plank. That's the real way to pronounce it. Trust me. He's tough as nails, rock solid off the tee and can run the tables when his putter's working. He's also finished in the top nine in five of his last nine events and he's shot from 61st in the FedExCup standings at the start of the Playoffs to eighth. Want more? He's finished in the top seven the last three times he's played here.

It has nothing to do with the fact that's he's from originally from Texas (my home state) or anything Big 12. Honest. He's only got to worry about the top two -- Tiger has to finish fourth or worse and Stricker has to finish third or worse. Not a reach.

Another choice? Geoff Ogilvy. One of the smartest players on TOUR and, well, he's due. He's got to go through all of the top five -- with TW finishing eighth or worse and Stricker, Furyk, Johnson and Slocum finishing fifth, fourth or third (times two) or worse, respectively.

No, he hasn't wowed us since winning the Mercedes-Benz Championship and World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship at the start of the year, but that tie for ninth at the Deutsche Bank Championship got our attention. He's had two top-19 finishes at East Lake, but when his game is spot-on we like what we see.

Marc Leishman got everyone's attention at the BMW Championship when he tied for second, but, truth told, this young Aussie has game. He turned things around in May --following three missed cuts -- with top-eight finishes at the Valero Texas Open and HP Byron Nelson Championship. He's pretty consistent since, but caught fire with a tie for 15th at the Deutsche Bank Championship and got Tiger's approval at Cog Hill.

He started the Playoffs in 78th and he's now 16th. He might have been a better choice had he not had a week off, but winning would just be a start. Like 75 percent of the field, he's got to have major help from the top five.

Don't overlook Ernie Els. The Big Easy is working his way back. He started the Playoffs in 47th and he's now 22nd. But he's a real long shot. He could easily win at East Lake, but he needs way too much help from the top. Again, slim chances.

And No. 5? Jason Dufner. We'd go with David Toms or Lucas Glover, but there's way too much to overcome. Or Kenny Perry or Sean O'Hair, but we're not feeling it.

But Dufner, who's playing in his first TOUR Championship, has had some nice finishes since April and he's moving up. That tie for second at the Deutsche Bank Championship put him where he is right now -- he's 10th and needs less help from the Big Five than some. Tiger has to finish fifth or worse and the others fourth, third or second, in order. Is it a reach to say he will make the TOUR Championship his first win? Yes. But isn't reaching up what it's all about? And stranger things have happened in this game.

Like we said, this one's up really up to the top five. But we've given you five more to think about, well, if . . . .

Melanie Hauser is a freelance columnist for PGATOUR.COM. Her views do not necessarily represent the views of the PGA TOUR.