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JoePa's US OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP Picks
US OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP
With it's narrow fairways, uniquely thick rough, and bikini waxed greens (Gary McCord could probably say it about this course and not get into trouble), the setup at Bethpage Black is suited to long hitters who can also get up and down, a.k.a. proximity to the hole on approach shots in regulation. That 100-125 yard stat may come into play more this week than not!
JIM FURYK 18/1 TO WIN OUTRIGHT - Can't bet Jimbo for a Top10 finish because the odds are horrible at 6/4, so I have to make him a favorite to win the darn thing. He does have 3 Top10s in his last three tour starts with a 2nd at The Memorial, T9th at the Crowne Plaza and a T5th at The Players.....before that he finished T11th at Quail Hollow! Toss in a T10th at The Masters, a 3rd at the WGC-CA, T9th at the WGC-Accenture and he's tied for the lead in Top10s on the season with 6, and he's got 7 Top15s. Furyk is 13th in driving accuracy at 69.69%, 12th in putting average at 1.728, 7th in scoring average at 69.75, and 3rd in total putts per round at 27.79. He can find he fairway and his short game is always solid which when added to his recent form makes him a must look at.
ROBERT ALLENBY 15/2 TO FINISH TOP 10 - Allenby was money for me last week and I cannot see any reason not the ride with him again this week. His recent form and stats are impressive. He finished T4th last week at the Jude with rounds of 67-64-68-69, he's 7th in ball striking, 20th in GIR, 5th in total driving which includes accuracy and distance, 17th in scoring average at 69.97, 15th in sand save percentage, 8th overall in GIR from 100+ yards which breaks out to: 85.29% from 100-125 yards, 70.33% from 150-175 yards, and 86.59% from less than 125 yards, and he ranks 8th in ball striking! He T12th his last time at Bethpage Black in 2002. The PGA Tour web site had some funky stat about him missed the cut at the US Open each odd-numbered year in the last 8 years while finishing in the Top20 at the US Open in the even-numbered years during that same stretch. This IS an odd-numbered year, but with his ability to scramble like last week, get some great distance and hit fairways on his drives, I'll keep my fingers crossed that he's not superstitious.
DAVID TOMS 5/1 TO FINISH TOP 10 - I also backed Toms last week, but since his Top10 odds were so bad at the Jude I had to wager on him to win and he finished T2nd! So this week I find the odds low again but more in my favor and I'll back him again. He only has 2 Top10s in 12 starts at the Jude, but man does he have some momentum this season as his recent form attests to: Thru 14 events he has 6 Top10s with two 2nd place finishes! That T2nd last week, a T9th at The Players, T5th at the Zurich, T2nd at the Sony, T4th at the FBR, and a T6th at the Mayakoba. And, he quietly finished T18th with a -6 at tough Quail Hollow. Toms ranks 1st in driving accuracy at 74.74%, 10th in total driving, 2nd in scoring average at 69.44, 16th in putting average, 10th in ball striking, 10th in GIR from 200+ yards which is important since he's not the longest hitter in the field, 15th in GIR from 150-175 yards, and hits greens with regularity at 83% from 100-125 yards. Oh yea, and don't forget he's 8th in proximity to the hole on approaches. I never hear anybody talking about him.....
My two Speculative Plays for this week:
GRAEME MCDOWELL 9/1 TO FINISH TOP 10 - Pure speculation on this play for sure but he did show up on the final leaderboard at the Jude last week with a T7th and a four day score of -11 and rounds of 66-71-69-63. He also finished T17th at The Masters. His scoring average is 70.94 which is 2nd best of his career since turning pro in 2002, he has driving accuracy percentage of 69.96%, his driving distance is 289.58 yards, GIR is 69% overall, and his putts per round average is 1.77.
HEATH SLOCUM 20/1 TO FINISH TOP 10 - He's got 2 Top10s on the year including a 3rd at the Mayakoba and a T10th last week at the Jude. He ranks 14th in driving accuracy and 14th in overall driving and is 2nd on tour in proximity to the hole. Plus he's 1/2 in Top10s in the US Open finishing T9th last year at Torrey Pines.
With it's narrow fairways, uniquely thick rough, and bikini waxed greens (Gary McCord could probably say it about this course and not get into trouble), the setup at Bethpage Black is suited to long hitters who can also get up and down, a.k.a. proximity to the hole on approach shots in regulation. That 100-125 yard stat may come into play more this week than not!
JIM FURYK 18/1 TO WIN OUTRIGHT - Can't bet Jimbo for a Top10 finish because the odds are horrible at 6/4, so I have to make him a favorite to win the darn thing. He does have 3 Top10s in his last three tour starts with a 2nd at The Memorial, T9th at the Crowne Plaza and a T5th at The Players.....before that he finished T11th at Quail Hollow! Toss in a T10th at The Masters, a 3rd at the WGC-CA, T9th at the WGC-Accenture and he's tied for the lead in Top10s on the season with 6, and he's got 7 Top15s. Furyk is 13th in driving accuracy at 69.69%, 12th in putting average at 1.728, 7th in scoring average at 69.75, and 3rd in total putts per round at 27.79. He can find he fairway and his short game is always solid which when added to his recent form makes him a must look at.
ROBERT ALLENBY 15/2 TO FINISH TOP 10 - Allenby was money for me last week and I cannot see any reason not the ride with him again this week. His recent form and stats are impressive. He finished T4th last week at the Jude with rounds of 67-64-68-69, he's 7th in ball striking, 20th in GIR, 5th in total driving which includes accuracy and distance, 17th in scoring average at 69.97, 15th in sand save percentage, 8th overall in GIR from 100+ yards which breaks out to: 85.29% from 100-125 yards, 70.33% from 150-175 yards, and 86.59% from less than 125 yards, and he ranks 8th in ball striking! He T12th his last time at Bethpage Black in 2002. The PGA Tour web site had some funky stat about him missed the cut at the US Open each odd-numbered year in the last 8 years while finishing in the Top20 at the US Open in the even-numbered years during that same stretch. This IS an odd-numbered year, but with his ability to scramble like last week, get some great distance and hit fairways on his drives, I'll keep my fingers crossed that he's not superstitious.
DAVID TOMS 5/1 TO FINISH TOP 10 - I also backed Toms last week, but since his Top10 odds were so bad at the Jude I had to wager on him to win and he finished T2nd! So this week I find the odds low again but more in my favor and I'll back him again. He only has 2 Top10s in 12 starts at the Jude, but man does he have some momentum this season as his recent form attests to: Thru 14 events he has 6 Top10s with two 2nd place finishes! That T2nd last week, a T9th at The Players, T5th at the Zurich, T2nd at the Sony, T4th at the FBR, and a T6th at the Mayakoba. And, he quietly finished T18th with a -6 at tough Quail Hollow. Toms ranks 1st in driving accuracy at 74.74%, 10th in total driving, 2nd in scoring average at 69.44, 16th in putting average, 10th in ball striking, 10th in GIR from 200+ yards which is important since he's not the longest hitter in the field, 15th in GIR from 150-175 yards, and hits greens with regularity at 83% from 100-125 yards. Oh yea, and don't forget he's 8th in proximity to the hole on approaches. I never hear anybody talking about him.....
My two Speculative Plays for this week:
GRAEME MCDOWELL 9/1 TO FINISH TOP 10 - Pure speculation on this play for sure but he did show up on the final leaderboard at the Jude last week with a T7th and a four day score of -11 and rounds of 66-71-69-63. He also finished T17th at The Masters. His scoring average is 70.94 which is 2nd best of his career since turning pro in 2002, he has driving accuracy percentage of 69.96%, his driving distance is 289.58 yards, GIR is 69% overall, and his putts per round average is 1.77.
HEATH SLOCUM 20/1 TO FINISH TOP 10 - He's got 2 Top10s on the year including a 3rd at the Mayakoba and a T10th last week at the Jude. He ranks 14th in driving accuracy and 14th in overall driving and is 2nd on tour in proximity to the hole. Plus he's 1/2 in Top10s in the US Open finishing T9th last year at Torrey Pines.