Mercedes-Benz Championship

[Stanley]

Change in focus for me this year :thumbs:

Here is the blurb I put on my page ...

"A different type of betting market for me this year, though really only a return to the predominant type of plays that I was posting when this site was first set up. Picks will be posted in the morning ahead of each round on this Tour and, as far as possible, I will also post up a notice if there are no plays that day. The new plays will posted lower down each page, so don't forget to scroll down if you don't see the new plays!

The majority of my plays will come from Pinnacle, Five Dimes and Carib. That is not because I'm not looking at the UK/European bookies' odds, but that I find it hard to better the value found at these three sportsbooks when they offer a push for the tie and almost everyone else offers three-way odds.

I will provide some very brief reasons for each play, but nothing more. It is easy to provide full reasonings for outright plays in the knowledge that the odds will change only slightly because of the huge volume in that market. It is very different with 18-hole matchups, so do expect some sharp line movements once people have followed my plays. I also need to keep some of the betting angles private for these matchups else the adjustments will be made by the odds compilers beforehand and it will be harder to find any value.

For the first month or so, all tips will probably be low stakes (e.g. 1pt) until the season settles down and the stakes will be "to win 1pt" if the selection is odds-on (i.e. minus odds on the moneyline) and "1pt stake" if the selection is odds-against (i.e. plus odds on the moneyline). For consistency and because I hope to introduce 18-hole matchup odds listings later in the year, all odds will be quoted in moneyline terms."

and the plays ...

Round 1 plays (1pt)

K.J. Choi to beat Angel Cabrera -125 @ Carib LOST by 9
Lots of good experience playing in Hawaii versus none and a 9-3-1 h2h 1st round record in favour of Choi as well

K.J. Choi to beat Zach Johnson -115 @ Five Dimes LOST by 3
Opposing Johnson as a poor wind player and being short off the tee will struggle as he did here in 2005

Rory Sabbatini to beat Scott Verplank -107 @ Pinnacle WON by 1
Sabbatini spent Christmas in Hawaii and is fully prepared for this event. The last time Verplank played in this event he finished 4th-last; Sabbatini was 2nd

[Stanley]

Round 2 plays (1pt)

K.J. Choi to beat Boo Weekley -120 @ The Greek and ToteSport (ties lose) LOST by 1
Boo hadn't played a round of golf or been on the practice range since the World Cup until this week and it showed yesterday. He will hardly improve today, while Choi must surely do so

Stephen Ames to beat Scott Verplank -105 @ Five Dimes WON by 3
The penalty shot aside, Verplank was poor from tee-to-green yesterday (20th in greens in regulation) so doesn't favouritism against Ames today

Rory Sabbatini to beat Steve Flesch -136 @ Pinnacle LOST by 4
Sabbatini was good from tee-to-green yesterday (5th in greens in regulation) and should beat Flesch who, in his last three limited field events in which he ended round 1 in the top-10, shot 74-78-73 in the 2nd round. Limited field events are unique in the volatility of round-to-round scoring

Mark Wilson to beat Fred Funk -135 @ Five Dimes LOST by 1
Simply opposing Funk whose motivation/abilities to respond to poor 1st round scores has declined significantly in recent years

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (1pt)

Stephen Ames to beat Mike Weir +103 @ Pinnacle LOST by 2
Backing Ames to win the battle of the Canadians. He's been in Hawaii since 20th December with his family (playing golf, not just on holiday), doesn't have to defend a tournament lead and has remained in the top-3 in six out of seven times that he has headed into the 3rd round in 2nd or 3rd place

Stephen Ames to beat Scott Verplank -105 @ Five Dimes WON by 2
A better performance from Verplank yesterday, but not enough to warrant favouritism against Ames who has been much more impressive

Brandt Snedeker to beat Jonathan Byrd -117 @ Pinnacle LOST by 1
Snedeker's driver face has cracked and his putter face has need to be re-squared this week and still he's 4th. With no equipment failures today he should beat Byrd who has never beaten 70 in eight attempts when 2nd/3rd after two rounds

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Jonathan Byrd -110 @ Five Dimes LOST by 2
Calc: "At the Merrill Lynch Shootout with Woody Austin that we won, and Tiger's deal, I just hit it great. ... I got over here. I still kept hitting it good." Calc's problem on Thursday was that it was wet; it was dry yesterday and he hit every green in regulation. Today it should be dry again

Daniel Chopra to beat Charles Howell -105 @ Five Dimes WON by 1
Basically opposing Howell who is struggling with his irons and is poorly motivated when out of contention: in his last 12 events when 9-11 shots behind the leader after 2 rounds, he has improved his leaderboard position only 3 times and never shot lower than 71

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (1pt unless stated)

Jim Furyk to beat Stephen Ames -149 @ Pinnacle [1.5pts] LOST by 2
Furyk's record when within 5 shots of the lead entering the final round is phenomenal: in 14/19 occasions in the last two years, he has shot at least one shot better than the average score of all players within 5 shots of the lead that day; in only 2/19 occasions did he shoot worse than the average of all those in contention. Quite a different story for Ames

Jim Furyk to beat Vijay Singh -120 @ Five Dimes [1.5pts] WON by 2
Vijay is very hit and miss in these 'within 5 shots of the lead' situations, so I'll take my chances with the more player in contention

Brandt Snedeker +0.5 to beat Vijay Singh +109 @ Five Dimes WON by 0.5
Snedeker also has a very good record in these situations, but I'll take the safety option of earning the win even if Snedeker and Singh tie

Nick Watney to beat Mike Weir +118 @ Pinnacle LOST by 1
Weir has held the lead heading into the final round only once in the last three years - 2006 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am - and he shot 78 that day. That was a poor performance and just once in three years is not a lot of practice in these situations. He'll face pressure from a lot of players in contention and the impressive Watney should be able to take advantage

Justin Leonard to beat Mike Weir +100 @ Five Dimes WON by 1
Similar story here, backing the Leonard at worse odds than Watney, but he does have more experience in these situations

Jonathan Byrd to beat Daniel Chopra +120 @ Unibet [0.5pts] LOST by 8
A small play on Byrd against the inconsistent Chopra and which is available at very attractive odds ... Pinnacle make Byrd a strong -113 favourite in this pairing

Overall: 7-11; -5.83pts