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Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Mark Calcavecchia to win 60/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Already a winner in Florida this year (PODS Championship), twice a winner previously in Florida, a runner-up in the Tour Championship last month and a top-10 finisher in each of the last three years here. They sound pretty solid reasons why he should be no more than 50/1, so presumably he is over-priced because he withdrew after three holes of the 2nd round last week, citing vertigo. Well, you have to give a medical reason for withdrawing from an event, particularly when you're the leading player that week in terms of the Money List. Basically, it was a weather-disrupted event that didn't even have one round finish on time, so when he opened with a 78, he can be forgiven finding an excuse to get out of the event. That's my suspicions, anyway, and if correct, there should be good value in these odds.
Ryan Moore to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetFred and Coral
Didn't play last week, but two weeks ago he started the 3rd round with a three-shot lead, so while there may be an issue with his inability to hold onto that lead (he finished the day three shots back and ultimately finished 6th), he is clearly in good form, ranking 1st in greens in regulation that week, and admitted in his post-round interviews that the transformation in his game has occurred the previous Sunday. Now he comes to an event in which he finished 13th in his rookie year (2005), which earned him the distinction of being the first player since Tiger Woods in 1996 to go from college to the PGA TOUR in the same season without going to Q School. Already familiar with the Magnolia course his AJGA events, he look set to continue his good form and post another high finish this week.
Ryan Palmer to win 100/1 e.w. @ Stan James, BetFred, Boyle Sports and Coral
If course form matters at all, Palmer should be a prime candidate this week. In his three starts in this event, he has finished 1st, 3rd and 36th. Considering that he only has seven top-5 finishes in his three years on this Tour, it is notable that two of them have come in this event. Okay, so he has hardly been challenging for any events recently and currently ranks just outside the automatic Tour Card places on the Money List, but he did finish 3rd in the Canadian Open and it is a very similar situation to 2004 when he won this event in his rookie year. On that occasion, a runners-up finish in the Southern Farm Bureau Classic got him off the bubble and he three weeks later, in his sixth consecutive event, in this event. Similarly, in 2005 when he finished 3rd, he had gained just one top-10 previously all season. So he is clearly a player who rarely features on leaderboards, but when he does, he tends to finish very highly, as shown by the fact that even though he has seven top-5 finishes, his best finish after that has been 10th (twice). And, finally, even though his stats are very poor, as expected, he still ranks in the top-10 in the 'fairway proximity' category. In other words, on open courses where finding the fairway is easy, he is one of the best at getting the ball close to the hole and that is pivotal this week when the wedges will be most common clubs used for approach shots.
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Mark Calcavecchia to win 60/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Already a winner in Florida this year (PODS Championship), twice a winner previously in Florida, a runner-up in the Tour Championship last month and a top-10 finisher in each of the last three years here. They sound pretty solid reasons why he should be no more than 50/1, so presumably he is over-priced because he withdrew after three holes of the 2nd round last week, citing vertigo. Well, you have to give a medical reason for withdrawing from an event, particularly when you're the leading player that week in terms of the Money List. Basically, it was a weather-disrupted event that didn't even have one round finish on time, so when he opened with a 78, he can be forgiven finding an excuse to get out of the event. That's my suspicions, anyway, and if correct, there should be good value in these odds.
Ryan Moore to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetFred and Coral
Didn't play last week, but two weeks ago he started the 3rd round with a three-shot lead, so while there may be an issue with his inability to hold onto that lead (he finished the day three shots back and ultimately finished 6th), he is clearly in good form, ranking 1st in greens in regulation that week, and admitted in his post-round interviews that the transformation in his game has occurred the previous Sunday. Now he comes to an event in which he finished 13th in his rookie year (2005), which earned him the distinction of being the first player since Tiger Woods in 1996 to go from college to the PGA TOUR in the same season without going to Q School. Already familiar with the Magnolia course his AJGA events, he look set to continue his good form and post another high finish this week.
Ryan Palmer to win 100/1 e.w. @ Stan James, BetFred, Boyle Sports and Coral
If course form matters at all, Palmer should be a prime candidate this week. In his three starts in this event, he has finished 1st, 3rd and 36th. Considering that he only has seven top-5 finishes in his three years on this Tour, it is notable that two of them have come in this event. Okay, so he has hardly been challenging for any events recently and currently ranks just outside the automatic Tour Card places on the Money List, but he did finish 3rd in the Canadian Open and it is a very similar situation to 2004 when he won this event in his rookie year. On that occasion, a runners-up finish in the Southern Farm Bureau Classic got him off the bubble and he three weeks later, in his sixth consecutive event, in this event. Similarly, in 2005 when he finished 3rd, he had gained just one top-10 previously all season. So he is clearly a player who rarely features on leaderboards, but when he does, he tends to finish very highly, as shown by the fact that even though he has seven top-5 finishes, his best finish after that has been 10th (twice). And, finally, even though his stats are very poor, as expected, he still ranks in the top-10 in the 'fairway proximity' category. In other words, on open courses where finding the fairway is easy, he is one of the best at getting the ball close to the hole and that is pivotal this week when the wedges will be most common clubs used for approach shots.
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