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Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Bo Van Pelt to win 40/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Was a place winner last week and is retained with many of the leading players returning to Tour golf after a month away. Sure enough, he doesn't convert his chances to win, but he still ranks 20th in Scoring Average on this Tour and, in terms of when it matters most, he ranks 5th in 3rd round scoring average and 3rd in final round scoring average on Tour. So even he can be counted upon to put in a strong performance and get close to a place finish even if out of contention for the win, as shown by his top-20 finishes in his last four starts. But that is not enough when they are competing on a new course for this Tour (a few unofficial events in the 1990s excepted). In terms of his form in the desert, his 5th place finish last week was in Nevada and he had a top-10 finish in Tucson last year, but it is also in terms of Tom Fazio-designed courses that looks a good bet to contend again this week. At last year's Wachovia Championship at Quail Hollow, he held the 36-hole lead and ultimately finished 6th. He may be a better player to back in a place-only market, but these odds won't last.
Charley Hoffman to win 50/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power, Skybet, Stan James and Boyle Sports
He couldn't backed at 25/1 last week, there are just as many reasons for him to be similarly priced this week, so I'll take him at 50/1 (though I wouldn't at lower odds). He had been in great form with top-25 finishes in his previous four starts, threatening to finish very high on the leaderboard on occasion, and had been well-placed (16th) after one round last week, so it is easy to overlook his 2nd round 74 and subsequent missed cut. In terms of his form in Arizona, he finished 9th in Tucson last year and had finished 6th and 18th in a Nationwide Tour event in this State in the previous two years, and in terms of his abilities around Tom Fazio's famously complex courses, he finished 5th around Atunyote only three weeks ago. Assuming that his form hasn't deserted him with one bad round, he seems just as likely to contend this week as last.
Bill Haas to win 55/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Fazio courses set up well in terms of risk/reward and this one is no different with generous fairways and shallow rough and that should suit these players and Haas in particular who is one of the longest hitters on Tour. He may have spurned an excellent opportunity for a place finish last week, finishing 21st, but he had finished 3rd in his previous event, the Viking Classic, and the week before, he had finished 10th around the Fazio-designed Atunyote course. And that is not his only impressive finish around a Fazio course: he held the 1st round lead in last year's Wachovia Championship, finishing 4th, in his rookie season on the PGA Tour (his best finish of the year) and he finished 22nd the year before when playing on a sponsor's invitation. So long as Mickelson is not on top of his game around a course that suits, at least one of these three should be in contention over the weekend.
Bo Van Pelt to win 40/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Was a place winner last week and is retained with many of the leading players returning to Tour golf after a month away. Sure enough, he doesn't convert his chances to win, but he still ranks 20th in Scoring Average on this Tour and, in terms of when it matters most, he ranks 5th in 3rd round scoring average and 3rd in final round scoring average on Tour. So even he can be counted upon to put in a strong performance and get close to a place finish even if out of contention for the win, as shown by his top-20 finishes in his last four starts. But that is not enough when they are competing on a new course for this Tour (a few unofficial events in the 1990s excepted). In terms of his form in the desert, his 5th place finish last week was in Nevada and he had a top-10 finish in Tucson last year, but it is also in terms of Tom Fazio-designed courses that looks a good bet to contend again this week. At last year's Wachovia Championship at Quail Hollow, he held the 36-hole lead and ultimately finished 6th. He may be a better player to back in a place-only market, but these odds won't last.
Charley Hoffman to win 50/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power, Skybet, Stan James and Boyle Sports
He couldn't backed at 25/1 last week, there are just as many reasons for him to be similarly priced this week, so I'll take him at 50/1 (though I wouldn't at lower odds). He had been in great form with top-25 finishes in his previous four starts, threatening to finish very high on the leaderboard on occasion, and had been well-placed (16th) after one round last week, so it is easy to overlook his 2nd round 74 and subsequent missed cut. In terms of his form in Arizona, he finished 9th in Tucson last year and had finished 6th and 18th in a Nationwide Tour event in this State in the previous two years, and in terms of his abilities around Tom Fazio's famously complex courses, he finished 5th around Atunyote only three weeks ago. Assuming that his form hasn't deserted him with one bad round, he seems just as likely to contend this week as last.
Bill Haas to win 55/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Fazio courses set up well in terms of risk/reward and this one is no different with generous fairways and shallow rough and that should suit these players and Haas in particular who is one of the longest hitters on Tour. He may have spurned an excellent opportunity for a place finish last week, finishing 21st, but he had finished 3rd in his previous event, the Viking Classic, and the week before, he had finished 10th around the Fazio-designed Atunyote course. And that is not his only impressive finish around a Fazio course: he held the 1st round lead in last year's Wachovia Championship, finishing 4th, in his rookie season on the PGA Tour (his best finish of the year) and he finished 22nd the year before when playing on a sponsor's invitation. So long as Mickelson is not on top of his game around a course that suits, at least one of these three should be in contention over the weekend.
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