NHL Playoffs System

[Stifler's Mom]

I am sure I read this somewhere in the past, but I'm not sure where. Anyway, I wanted to share it here. I know it won't really help for this year's playoffs anymore, but it might next year.

This system goes on the principle that no lower seed ever comes back from 0-3 to take the final 4 games of the series. The only way you can lose $$ with this system is if the higher seed would go up 3-0, and then loses 4 straight to lose the series. I'm not sure if it's ever even happened....and I'm too lazy to look it up, lol, but here's how it works.

You take the lower seed on the ML in game 1, wagering X to win 1 unit. Then if they lose, you play them again in game 2 for X + 1 (X is what you lost in game 1, and 1 is the 1 unit you want to win). If they lose game 3, you play them again for X +1 (where X will = what you lost in games 1 and 2, and 1 is the 1 unit you want to win).

If they win any of the first 3 games, you have 1 unit profit, and you stop.

If the lower seed loses the first 3 games, you switch to the higher seed....assuming they won't lose 4 straight.

You continue to wager to win what you've already lost + 1 unit until you get a win.

With the Rangers winning today, I've already made 12 units doing this for the NHL playoffs so far, and I've found that the risk isn't that tremendous because usually you get the lower seed at like +190 and stuff, so your what you need to wager to make 1 unit isn't that much the first 2 games.

It's not for everyone, but if you have the bankroll to do it, you can pick up an easy 15 units.....unless of course you happen to be unlucky enough for the lower seed to drop to 0-3 and then come back and win the series.

Just thought I'd share it for anyone who might be interested. And again like I said, this isn't for everyone....but it was an easy way for me to pick up 12 units so far by doing absolutely nothing except some math and making the wagers.

[FlyersFan]

im confused how you bet on the NYR today since they are only down 2-0 in the series. and i guess i am really confused because the only team down 3-0 in a series was ATL and the NYR won game 4......guess i just don't get it...lol....

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL, you bet on the lower seed to win, until either:

1. They win a game, at which time you stop and keep your 1 unit profit for that series.

2. They go down 0-3, at which time you then switch to the higher seed

In the Atlanta/NYR series, I bet on NYR (6 seed) in game 1, and they beat Atlanta (3 seed) in game 1, so I got my 1 unit profit right there, and that series was over for me.

In the NYR/Buffalo series, I bet on NYR (6 seed) in game 1. I had to risk 0.59 units to 1 unit on game 1, and it lost.

So, for game 2, I played NYR again....this time wagering 0.94 units to win 1.59 units (.59 to cover my losses from game 1, and 1 to make a 1 unit profit).

They lost game 2, so today for game 3 I had to bet 3.05 units on NYR to win 2.53 units (I had lost 0.94 units and 0.59 units on NYR already in games 1 and 2, totaling 1.53 units in losses, and then 1 more unit that I wanted to win = 2.53 units). I had to risk more this time cause they were favored @-120 instead of being a big dog. They won today, so I made the 2.53 units, getting back what I lost on games 1 and 2, plus profiting 1 unit.

IF NYR would have lost today, they would have been down 0-3, so I would have had to switch to Buffalo in game 4, assuming NYR wouldn't take 4 straight from Buffalo to win the series. I would have had to put whatever it took (depending on the line for game 4) on Buffalo to win 5.58 units. Assuming the line for Buffalo in game 4 was +100 to keep it simple, I would have been risking 5.58 units to win 5.58 units on them in game 4.

If Buffalo would lose game 4, you would continue playing Buffalo, risking whatever it is you need to recoup all your losses + the 1 unit you want to win until they close out the series.

Once you win one bet per series and make your 1 unit profit, you stop for that series. Numerically it's the exact same way the MLB road system works, as far as you keep doubling up until you win, except that you never switch teams in the MLB system, and if you get to 6 straight losses in any series, you eat the loss and move on....whereas in the NHL system you would chase all the way until game 7 if necessary, and just hope the lower seed does not take 4 straight from the higher seed after dropping down 0-3 in the series.

Hope that makes sense, lol

[FlyersFan]

i get it now....i guess i kind of play a variation of that in different series but with a lot more risk involved....but i play it multiple times in a series...like i played ANA until they won a game, then they won so i am starting a second wave of ANA plays figuring they don't lose 4-1........but i see what you're saying.......it is a good system and not that much risk involved......

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea, the only real difference is that you don't need to know anything about hockey to play the one i'm playing....as far as you don't have to try and decide which teams aren't going down 4-0 or 4-1....although I often come across some of my plays in the same way. If i see a team drop to 0-2 in a series (or even 1-1), then they come home for 2 games, I might play em in game 3, and if they lose, again in game 4, figuring i get a split at the worst, especially if they were a strong home team like Anaheim.

On my regular plays, I don't double up though, but instead just go for the break even (+ or - a little juice) if i go 1-1....and that way it doesn't hurt as much if they do lose both.

The problem with the system i'm playing is that if a team would drop to 0-3, then come back to win 4-3, you'd end up dropping about maybe 30-50 units, depending on the juice....but it's so unlikely that the lesser seed comes back from 0-3, that I think it's worth the shot. So far the most I've gone to was a game 5, when Anaheim jumped out 3-0 in Minny, then I switched to Anaheim in game 4 and Minny won, so then I ended up having 14.78 units risked on the Ducks in game 5 to win 8.44. I was never worried about Anaheim actually losing the series though, so I didn't really sweat that game 5, even though I had a pretty big chunk of change on it.

Now if it had gone to a game 7, that would have been a different story. Then I would have been worried, lol

[Angelus]

Wow, that's a great system. Never thought of that before.

The only way you can lose money is if the higher seed goes up 3-0 and then the lower seed wins 4 straight to win the series. The odds of that happening would be astronomical.

I like it. :beerbang:

I will have to keep it in mind for next year.