JML Friday NHL >>>

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

NHL YTD: 93-91, +3.91


Capitals PL +183 vs Sens

Bruins PL +176 vs Thrash

Sabres PL +183 vs Leafs

Red Wings PL +183 vs Stars

Flames PL +146 vs Panthers

1 Unit Each



GL :thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Capitals -0.5 (reg) +104 vs Sens

Bruins -0.5 (reg) +100 vs Thrash

1 Unit Each


GL

[FlyersFan]

JML- GL!.....just my 2 cents but you stay way too much on the beaten path in the NHL. I still say team totals are some of the best plays you can make, along with some of those prop bets. tough to cash all those PL bets.

and hows about those Flyers yesterday. FYI, they can't keep the puck out of their own net at home. they are the 5th stingiest team on the road and they are in the bottom 5 at home in GAA. Another 5 last night.

GL!...:thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I knew you'd like that card today! lol.

Yeah...I do the odd team total, but I like picking sides. This isn't a business for me, it is for fun. And picking sides are fun for me. Too each their own. But I do agree...todays plays are little whack. lol. It started out that I was going to just pick Was & Bos PLs...only needing 1 to cash...and then I ended up adding 3 more games, and I just stuck with the PLs. lol. With PLs you only need to cash half your plays for a good night. We'll see.

Yeah...what a comback by the Flyers...that team can sure score. Being on either side of that game would have been insane.

Caps get Green back tonight, and with that Ovechkin/Semin/Backstrom line back together...look out!

[FlyersFan]

I knew you'd like that card today! lol.

Yeah...I do the odd team total, but I like picking sides. This isn't a business for me, it is for fun. And picking sides are fun for me. Too each their own. But I do agree...todays plays are little whack. lol. It started out that I was going to just pick Was & Bos PLs...only needing 1 to cash...and then I ended up adding 3 more games, and I just stuck with the PLs. lol. With PLs you only need to cash half your plays for a good night. We'll see.

Yeah...what a comback by the Flyers...that team can sure score. Being on either side of that game would have been insane.

Caps get Green back tonight, and with that Ovechkin/Semin/Backstrom line back together...look out!

lol...yeah i know to each his own. you just know a ton about hockey and my point has always been that if you dig a little deeper on the card each night you would probably find some more winners. and it's always more "fun" the more you win...lol.

yeah, i know you only need 50% of those. that has to rank as one of the wackest cards in the history of NHL betting...lol. which always means it's probably going to about 6-1.....:beerbang:

i have a play on WAS too. OTT is just missing something.....like 3 lines that can contribute...lol.....i have to admit i was a little more optomistic than you were about them to start the season. But that team has no energy, they take dumb penalties and get no scoring from lines 2-4 on a nightly basis. The classic part is that Auld has actually been one of the better goalies thisyear. No way you can fault him for losing a bunch of 2-1 and 2-0 hockey games. That team needs to get blown up. They need to trade one of the big 3 for multiple "B" level type talent. They need guys like for example a Matt Cullen, Justin Williams, Marek Svatos......guys who contribute more than not and are probably 45-60 point a year guys. OTT has like 3 guys who will put up 80+ points and then nobody after that who will probably hit 40 points.....can't have a team constructed that way. etc........

[FlyersFan]

in fact i just looked....heatly, spezza and alfy all have 22+ points....kuba a defenseman has 19......the next forward on the scoring sheet has EIGHT points.....EIGHT. Through 25 games....that means their 4th leading F scorer is on pace to score about 25 points this year.....brutal...just brutal...


Offense POS GP G A Pts
Dany Heatley LW 26 14 14 28
Daniel Alfredsson RW 25 7 18 25
Jason Spezza C 26 12 10 22
Filip Kuba D 26 1 18 19
Jarkko Ruutu LW 24 2 6 8
Mike Fisher C 22 3 5 8 -
Alexandre Picard D 24 2 6 8
Shean Donovan RW 24 4 3 7
Nick Foligno LW 26 4 3 7
Jesse Winchester RW 26 2 4 6
Chris Kelly C 26 2 3 5
Antoine Vermette LW 26 2 3 5
Christoph Schubert LW 17 1 3 4
Anton Volchenkov D 26 2 1 3
Chris Neil RW 20 2 1 3

i mean how bad is that......:blackeye:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Point taken...and you're probably right. :beer2:

Yeah...Auld's actually been a lifesaver for them...who would have thought that! lol. Their lack of depth was always hidden by the fact they had good defence, and overall depth on the backend. Now after losing Chara, Redden, Meszaros, etc...they've been exposed this year. I couldn't be happier about it.

The big three are good, sure....but every good team has a checking line to play against them every shift. Ruutu is their 4th leading scoring forward behind the big three, with 8 points. My god. Vermette and Fisher are over-rated IMO...3 liners on a good team...2nd liners on OTT. Other than that, their cupboard compares to the Leafs, Thrashers or Islanders.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Spezza shown the door at some point near the deadline (assuming they're out of it) to get some depth and/or youth like you say...


Kaberle is all but gone from the leafs in the new year...should get some good value for him, as team heading into the playoffs would love a puck-moving, smart defenceman who can play the PP! Philly is still interested...wouldn't be surprised to see him go there. Kaberle for Giroux and a 1st round pick. :thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

in fact i just looked....heatly, spezza and alfy all have 22+ points....kuba a defenseman has 19......the next forward on the scoring sheet has EIGHT points.....EIGHT. Through 25 games....that means their 4th leading F scorer is on pace to score about 25 points this year.....brutal...just brutal...


Offense POS GP G A Pts +/- PIM PPG PPA SHG SHA GW GT SOG Pct
Dany Heatley LW 26 14 14 28
Daniel Alfredsson RW 25 7 18 25
Jason Spezza C 26 12 10 22
Filip Kuba D 26 1 18 19
Jarkko Ruutu LW 24 2 6 8
Mike Fisher C 22 3 5 8 -
Alexandre Picard D 24 2 6 8
Shean Donovan RW 24 4 3 7
Nick Foligno LW 26 4 3 7
Jesse Winchester RW 26 2 4 6
Chris Kelly C 26 2 3 5
Antoine Vermette LW 26 2 3 5
Christoph Schubert LW 17 1 3 4
Anton Volchenkov D 26 2 1 3
Chris Neil RW 20 2 1 3

i mean how bad is that......:blackeye:

Yup...lol...checked the same thing. Jarko f'ing Ruutu...lmao...brutal. And Kuba might be 4th, but he has 1 goal, and a bunch of garbage "secondary" assists. Bank on that...

[Stifler's Mom]

PL's are a pain in the ass to me. Of course I often find value in taking the +1.5, and routinely end up getting screwed by an empty netter....last time being 2 nights ago with St Louis +1.5 @ Anaheim, where i was forced to watch Anaheim net one minus the goalie with 4 whopping seconds left in the game, lol

IMO, the best thing to do, instead of taking the +1.5 PL (and this doesn't apply to your plays obviously, as they are all -1.5 PL's), is to take either +0.5 in regulation only, OR ml in regulation only, as they both cost less than a +1.5 PL, and probably have all but as good of a chance of winning anyway. +1.5 PL's and ML's that include dumbass shootouts have proven to have little to no value to me what so ever.

Which brings me to my question...

What book(s) do you guys know of that have regulation only bets for hockey. I used to do very well with them @ Pinnacle, but ever since they closed shop to Americans and Neteller did the same, i've been unsuccessful in finding them @ a book I can actually make a deposit at without selling my soul and/or giving my life history to.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I agree totally with your assesment....reg +0.5 or ML is better than +1.5. I hate +1.5. I've never played a +1.5, and probably never will. 1 goal games turn into such fast-paced, risk-taking play in the last 2 minutes, that I think there is such a good chance of either an empty-netter, or a tying goal, that the +1.5 doesn't appeal to me. Those 2 outcomes really make all three plays (+1.5/+0.5/ML) the same in the end, win or lose. I know the stats probably don't back this up...but I've never felt comfortable with the +1.5's for that reason. And, yeah, they are usually juiced to all hell, so essentially you are in a situation where your money is backing a ****ty team, and still laying 50-220 cents in juice! Not the situation I like to be in at all.

As for the -1.5s...lol....I guess I get a hard-on from time to time when I see a GREAT team playing a **** team, in a good spot no less, and you can get something like +170? Kinda like alternate spreads in the NFL, except there seems to be alot of 2+ goal wins in hockey. When I do go a pucklinin', I usually like to just pick 2 PLs I really like, and hope one cashes for profit. If both do...gravy. Regulation plays are probably better though, I agree, and my card tonight is pretty much asinine. lol. But when taking big faves...regulation -0.5 is probably the best play as opposed to PLs, because it cuts your juice from something l ike -200 down to around -130, and if you needed OT, then it likely wasn't the right play anyway...as a -200 team shouldn't need more than regulation.

Not sure, Stif...I mainly use Pinnacle and bet365, and they both have regulation bets. I assumed every book did that. Some do a 3-way bet, which is similar, where you bet home/away/tie...eliminating the OT, and making it a regulation bet (obviously only a reg ML not reg spread). Doesn't Sports Interaction have reg bets? I know you use SIA, and with them being based in Canada and all, I figured they'd have a good NHL card...

[FlyersFan]

Kaberle is all but gone from the leafs in the new year...should get some good value for him, as team heading into the playoffs would love a puck-moving, smart defenceman who can play the PP! Philly is still interested...wouldn't be surprised to see him go there. Kaberle for Giroux and a 1st round pick. :thumbs:

i seriously doubt that the way things are. They have too many defenseman right now with Jones coming back along with what's his name. Sbisa is up for the year now (probably would have been sent back down had they not been desperate) and with Coburn, Timmonen, Carle, Sbisa, Jones etc....they are fine defensively. They have a top 5 PP, a top 5 PK and are 5th in GAA on the road (home is another issue). I really don't see the need for Kaberle at this point, especially when so many of those guys are young guys. Even Al Alberts is playing better once he has gotten adjusted to playing in PHI system. Not that he's a HOF or anything better than a 5-6 Dman, but still....just don't see the need for Kaberle. They are actually in the rumor mill for getting rid of somebody.

[Stifler's Mom]

Nope, no regulation bets at SIA or sportsbook.com that I'm aware of, which are the 2 books i'm using right now. Both are so easy to deposit/withdraw at, and had everything I needed linewise....until now. SIA's hockey lines are crappy though....other than that you can get a good value play sometimes. For example, I had Phoenix at +110 last night at SIA, and they were -105 to -110 at other places.

I can't use bet365 either, lol. I used to like that book. I remember being able to sell +2.5 dogs to -1 faves there in NFL/NCAAF and getting like -1 (+150) when the ML was only like +125 because they credited you the 10 cents juice for selling to +0.5, pk and -0.5, which are all obviously never coming into play, although I do remember them sorta changing that somehow right before i was no longer able to play there by changing the juice difference between the point sells more similar to Pinnacle.

They were one of the first that i knew of to do alot of in game betting too...

I agree on the -1.5's though. I never did any kind of tracking, but it seems as though with empty netter covers figured in at those big + payouts, and the lack of paying the big juice when the team loses outright would be more than enough to outweigh the times you lose cause the team wins by 1.

[FlyersFan]

sportsbook.com is horrible for hockey

i have no idea where to go for regulation lines and i would like to find that too. i do the greek for hockey mostly. they have tons of bets but nothing in regulation.

doesn't 5 dimes have that? i haven't played with them in a long time because it's such a pain in the ass to deposit and withdraw. don't feel like providing 89 pieces of identification and 3 referrals from non family members everytime i want to get some money out

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea, 5 dimes does have reg only, but I don't use them for exactly the same reason

[FlyersFan]

Yea, 5 dimes does have reg only, but I don't use them for exactly the same reason

the one problem with the NHL betting is that it really isn't a big deal at most of these books. MLB, NCAA's, NFL and NBA are where it's at for most of them so they probably don't consider offering more than a standard line/total on a game. it's rare for a book to even have period totals or plays at all. the greek is about as comprehensive as you can get for the NHL.

my other concern is always depositing money with a book that isn't a mainstream book. it doesn't do you any good to turn 300.00 into 3000.00 if you can't get paid in the end.

i have been playing mostly team totals and period plays anyway and doing much much better with them. i do lose probably 75% of my SO's which sucks because it's basically a coin flip either way......i would much rather take someone in regulation i agree