MM's NHL - Monday 8th of the 12th ===> 08

[Meestermike]

Haven't had much time until lately - end of season for me now for about 6 to 8 weeks.

Have a total play for Ottawa vs. Florida tonite ~ Under 5.5 -140; as the odds makers appear to realize a major signal in this one. Opened at -145 and has floated down and up again.

Some historical tidbits show even O\U in the last 6 m-ups 3-3, however Florida has some serious Under #'s this season in the following scenarios...

revenging a home loss versus opponent	1-2
revenging a loss versus opponent	2-8
after allowing 4 goals or more	0-6	
after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game	1-6
after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game 1-4
when playing against a team with a losing record	2-6

Will ride the YTD trend and suffer w/ the juice.

[Meestermike]

In my haste to post I wasn't done yet...

TB @ BOS Over 5½ +115
Should see a 4-2 or 5-2 Total in this one

Nashville (1st 60 min) -½ +132
Nashville -1 +159 (incl OT)
Blues have many injured crew in sick bay so the Preds can steal one here IMO

[bobby0rr]

Just a question, how do you say what a losing record is? Looks like you are saying 10-10-4 is a losing record. Are saying 10-14 to determine a losing record? Just wondering if that's how you would talk about it. thanks.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

GL MM...Like all the plays....two hot goalies in that Fla/Ott game as well....and NASH is my favourite play of the day.....GL!

[Meestermike]

Just a question, how do you say what a losing record is? Looks like you are saying 10-10-4 is a losing record. Are saying 10-14 to determine a losing record? Just wondering if that's how you would talk about it. thanks.

In my sports investment strategies, I treat a team w/ a record of 10-14 ATS as a losing team because I deal only w/ ats winners and losers; not the game results winners and losers.

Ottawa is currently 10-14 ATS in all games.

Also Ottawa...
when playing against a team with a losing record 3-9 (-10.3 units) TY;
and is coming off a bloated win against Sydney and the Pens, also Florida is beginning a 5 GM western road trip tonite. We shall see if the O\U #'s prevail tonite.

[Meestermike]

GL MM...Like all the plays....two hot goalies in that Fla/Ott game as well....and NASH is my favourite play of the day.....GL!

Thx JML. Feels strange a bit after not doing this for such a long time.

Hopefully we made the right choices.

[bobby0rr]

Does that mean Ott. is 10-14 on the Puck line? Seems like a funny way to look at it if the puck line usually has a more skewed moneyline than the regular moneyline. It's not intuitive, but I"m probably just missing the point on it. GL

[Meestermike]

The Puckline you ask about can mean any one of up to ten (10) scenarios depending on the book you use.

You can get -2.5; -2; -1.5; -1; -0.5, +0.5; +1; +1.5; +2; +2.5

You can also play first 60 minutes or include Overtime

Also regarding their SU standings, the Sens are 10-10-4 which stands for 10 wins, 10 losses and 4 Overtime losses. To me that makes them have a losing record.

I will post up Ott's season to date here for you to see. If you wish to calaulate the results of all 10 scenarios above, be my guest. However I cannot tell you $$$ as I do not have the lines' historical payouts as I did not get an opportunity when the season began.

Tonite's game is listed below.

October
10/04 L vs Pittsburgh, 3-4 (OT) (in Sweden)
10/05 W at Pittsburgh, 3-1 (in Sweden)
10/11 L vs Detroit, 2-3
10/17 W vs Phoenix, 6-3
10/18 L vs Boston, 2-4
10/22 L vs Florida, 1-3
10/24 L vs Anaheim, 3-4
10/25 L at Toronto, 2-3
10/27 W at Buffalo, 5-2
10/30 W at Florida, 2-1

November
11/01 L at Tampa Bay, 2-3 (SO)
11/04 W vs Washington, 2-1 (OT)
11/06 W vs Philadelphia, 4-1
11/07 L at Carolina, 1-2
11/11 L at Montreal, 0-4
11/13 L vs NY Islanders, 1-3
11/15 L at NY Islanders, 2-3
11/17 L at NY Rangers, 1-2 (SO)
11/20 L vs Montreal, 2-3 (SO)
11/22 W vs NY Rangers, 4-1
11/27 W vs Toronto, 2-1 (SO)
11/29 L at NY Islanders, 2-4

December
12/03 W vs Atlanta, 5-1
12/06 W vs Pittsburgh, 3-2

Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators

Mon 12/8	53 	Florida Panthers	     +1½ -190 	+158 	Over 5½ +125 	Over 2½ +110    	Under 2½ -140    
7:35PM (EST) 	54	Ottawa Senators	    -1½ +165 	-180 	Under 5½ -145 	Over 3 +105    	Under 3 -135    
Mon 12/8	53 	Florida Panthers	            +1 -115 	 	Over 5 -130 	    	    
7:35PM (EST) 	54	Ottawa Senators	     -1 -105 	 	Under 5 +110 	    	    
Mon 12/8	53 	Florida Panthers	             -1½ +360 	 	Over 6 +155 	    	    
7:35PM (EST) 	54	Ottawa Senators	     +1½ -450 	 	Under 6 -175 	    	    
Mon 12/8	53 	Florida Panthers	        -1 +284 	 	 	    	    
7:35PM (EST) 	54	Ottawa Senators	       +1 -344 	 	 	    	    
Mon 12/8	53 	Florida (1st 60 min)	        +½ -112 	+159 	 	    	    
7:35PM (EST) 	54	Ottawa (1st 60 min)	-½ -108 	-182 	 	    	    
Mon 12/8	53 	FLA/OTT Goes to Overtime	 	+305 	 	    	    
7:35PM (EST) 	54	FLA/OTT No Overtime	 	-365 	 	    	    
Mon 12/8	53 	Florida (1st 60 min)	        -½ +231 	 	 	    	    
7:35PM (EST) 	54	Ottawa (1st 60 min)	+½ -271

53 	Florida Panthers 	7:35 pm    Add to Ticket 	54 	Ottawa Senators
	+1½ 	-200 	Game Spread 		-1½ 	+170
	+155 	  	Game MoneyLine 		-175 	 
	Over 5½ 	+130 	Game Total 		Under 5½ 	-150
	Over 2½ 	+125 	Game Team Total 		Over 3 	+105
	Under 2½ 	-165 	Game Team Total 		Under 3 	-145
	+½ 	-155 	First Period Spread 		-½ 	+135
	+125 	  	First Period MoneyLine 		-145 	 
	Over 1½ 	+105 	First Period Total 		Under 1½ 	-125
	+130 	  	Second Period MoneyLine 		-150 	 
	+135 	  	Third Period MoneyLine 		-155

[bobby0rr]

10-14 ATS. Is that 10-14 "against the spread"? I see Ottawa is 10-14, but that does have to do with the game results. They won 10 and lost 14.

The puck line I was talking about is static 1.5, but I'm only using the basic books online, so I don't know where to get -.5 or whatever. I was just curious what you meant by 10-14 ATS, I have not seen that before.


I apologize if my question is not going to the crux of why you made the picks you did. I just saw that you had determined that Ottawa is a losing team, and I wondered how exactly to calculate that. For instance, you could be something like 12-9-4, and you would probably be above the mean point total for NHL teams. Would that still be a losing criteria on your calculations? I'm assuming you just printed out code, and one of the criteria was "when playing against a team with a losing record." so, 12-9-4 would equal 12-13? Would that be 12-13 ATS? Or maybe ATS does not stand for "against the spread." That's all I could come up with on a quick web search a little earlier on. thanks again.

[Meestermike]

10-14 ATS. Is that 10-14 "against the spread"? I see Ottawa is 10-14, but that does have to do with the game results. They won 10 and lost 14.

The puck line I was talking about is static 1.5, but I'm only using the basic books online, so I don't know where to get -.5 or whatever. I was just curious what you meant by 10-14 ATS, I have not seen that before.


I apologize if my question is not going to the crux of why you made the picks you did. I just saw that you had determined that Ottawa is a losing team, and I wondered how exactly to calculate that. For instance, you could be something like 12-9-4, and you would probably be above the mean point total for NHL teams. Would that still be a losing criteria on your calculations? I'm assuming you just printed out code, and one of the criteria was "when playing against a team with a losing record." so, 12-9-4 would equal 12-13? Would that be 12-13 ATS? Or maybe ATS does not stand for "against the spread." That's all I could come up with on a quick web search a little earlier on. thanks again.

When I say "ATS" it does mean against the spread. The term spread can mean the moneyline or the puckline. Moneyline is a straight up to win or lose and Puckline involves basically spotting a half goal, one goal, one & a half goals etc.

I made my play as a result of the recent Florida history in the situations as above.

Ottawa is a losing team in both ATS category at 10-14 and in their game results Straight up at 10 wins,10 losses and 4 Overtime losses. The 4 overtime losses are just that as they did not win at the end of the game which included overtime and shootouts.

The puck line I was talking about is static 1.5, but I'm only using the basic books online, so I don't know where to get -.5 or whatever. I was just curious what you meant by 10-14 ATS, I have not seen that before.

By static you mean +1.5 where you play. This means if you played on Ottawa every game at +1.5, then your results would be... 6 wins and 1 loss when Ottawa had been listed as a dog. Only 7 times so far this year have the Senators been listed and closed as an underdog.

10/11 vs DETROIT +1½ -240 Lost 2-3 = $+100.00
10/27 at BUFFALO +1½ -205 Won 5-2 = $+100.00
11/01 at TAMPA BAY +1½ -270 Lost 2-3 = $+100.00
11/11 at MONTREAL +1½ -205 Lost 0-4 = $-205.00
11/17 at NY RANGERS +1½ -220 Lost 1-2 = $+100.00
11/20 vs MONTREAL +1½ -260 Lost 2-3 = $+100.00
12/06 vs PITTSBURGH +1½ -265 Won 3-2 = $+100.00

Risked = $1,665.00 Won $600.00 Lost $205.00. Not a great ROI (return on investment)

If you are willing to risk that much so be it. Not my approach to wagering.

[bobby0rr]

thanks, Meestermike. Now I get the 10-14, because if you bet them on the moneyline you lost the 14 times, unless you played the variation of no OT, which I think most people don't wager on most of the time. So That makes sense 10-14 ATS to me. My confusion was that ATS football would be against the point spread, or I think it would, which is not always going to correlate with the regular standings. Now I see one more thing in your last post about SU standings, is that the same thing? Could you please tell me what that stands for? Also, no, I am not willing to risk that amount..

[Meestermike]

thanks, Meestermike. Now I get the 10-14, because if you bet them on the moneyline you lost the 14 times, unless you played the variation of no OT, which I think most people don't wager on most of the time. So That makes sense 10-14 ATS to me. My confusion was that ATS football would be against the point spread, or I think it would, which is not always going to correlate with the regular standings. Now I see one more thing in your last post about SU standings, is that the same thing? Could you please tell me what that stands for? Also, no, I am not willing to risk that amount..

SU or straight up standings are simply games won or lost. Your newspaper sports pages or an internet sports site standings give you all of the teams' SU records of wins and losses in the sports you are wondering about.

If you are dealing only with moneylines, straight up standings only will give you some of your core handicapping info about two teams past performance in the current season. For spread plays you need to delve deeper for better anticipated success.

Last night was not a nice way to return to posting... 1-3 - 2.25 units. Feel like the Big 3 losing money.
Good thing is there's always today to recoup and plod ahead.