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12-23 (-25.10 units)
Nice season I'm having so far, lol.
Go ahead, laugh at my reasoning, but I thought i'd do some lame hockey write ups today.....
NJD/ATL u5 +115
NJ can't score, but they can defend. This is of course, common knowledge. 4 regulation goals in 3 games so far this year is obviously beyond terrible though, and just because they're playing the thrashers tonight, i don't see why that solves their offensive woes, seeings as how they couldn't score on the NYI either, who just got done giving up 7 to BUF.
Plus, I don't think the ATL defense is as bad as people are making it out to be. I think the 4 they gave up vs WSH was inflated because the Crapitals were playing catch up the whole game. Then they gave 2 to FLA (in reg) and 4 to MIN, but 3 of those were in the 3rd period. So take away a team playing catch up and one poor period vs MIN, and the ATL defense has been not so bad.
So putting what I see as a half decent ATL defense up against an NJ offense who is clueless, and has to be by far the worst one they have faced to this point, I can easily see a defensive struggle in this game, with it being very hard to see either one of these teams getting to 4 goals tonight in regulation, really....which other than 3-3 or an empty netter at 3-2 are the only ways I can lose this.
For + money, I'll give it a whirl....
ATL +130
See above. Just can't not bet against a team who can't score (dating back to last season) as a road chalk. Road faves that are inept either offensively or defensively are a recipe for disaster, imho, and NJD certainly qualifies as the former so far....
VAN/DET u5.5 -140
Not sure where the VAN goals are going to come from in this game. Now that they're done playing CAL, i think they will be back to their old ways of being unable to score, especially against one of the best defensive teams in the league. Even though it can certainly happen, you just can't count on one side to do it all, so I'm going with the under, despite the large juice. And it's not like the VAN defense is hopeless. If VAN puts up a few and this soars over, of if DET wins 5-1ish, then oh well, but I think the under is the correct side here.
FLA -110
MIN owns these guys dating back to like 2001 or something, lol. Why essentially a pick em at just -110 then? Fishy, imho....seems the books are loving every penny of MIN money they're currently pulling in on this one. I'll side with the oddsmaker here....
WSH +115
PIT is playing poor so far this year i'd say, despite their 2-1-1 record. The public seems to be looking for their breakout game to be tonight, however, as they are backing them in around the 75-80% range as a smallish home fave. The sharper money seems to disagree though, as the line has actually moved back slightly in the favor of the Crapitals at the sharper books, which makes sense to me since the Pens are not scoring much....and it's hard to win when you don't score.
WSH/PIT u 5.5 +100
Why only 5.5 here? The public certainly expects a shootout between Ovechkin and Crosby, so why not at least 6? Certainly the books could get even action at the very least with o6 on this game. Therefore I see this as a suspiciously low total, with a pretty strong move in the favor of the under too...most notably at Pinnacle who actually had the u5.5 favored at -107 for a while this morning. This has me thinking the books are siding with the under here, and that they have either gotten or fear getting sharp money on anything more favorable to the under. So I will grab some u5.5 while it's still even money at SIA, as Pittsburgh has scored just 7 regulation goals in 4 tries this year, with their best regulation output being 3 in their opener vs OTT, followed by 1 vs OTT, 1 vs NJD, and 2 against PHI. Maybe they lite up the lamp a combined 10x tonight for all I know....but I don't see how that isn't the exception rather than the norm by what has happened so far this year.
DAL/STL u5 +130
Talk about begging for over money, setting this total at just 5 when STL has totaled 7, 7 and 9 combined goals in their first 3 games, and DAL is coming off a 10 goal combined effort last night. Last night's DAL game was deceiving though, imo, because there were 10 goals, on just 47 combined SOG. Not too often the puck is going to go in the net every 4.7 attempts in a game.
More importantly, DAL allowed just 19 SOG the whole game, but the poor play of Turco allowed NSH to stay in the game. I look for DAL to continue to play solid defenively tonight against an STL team that probably isn't as good offensively as their totals to this point indicate....and for a tight low scoring affair throughout.
2 units each
Nice season I'm having so far, lol.
Go ahead, laugh at my reasoning, but I thought i'd do some lame hockey write ups today.....
NJD/ATL u5 +115
NJ can't score, but they can defend. This is of course, common knowledge. 4 regulation goals in 3 games so far this year is obviously beyond terrible though, and just because they're playing the thrashers tonight, i don't see why that solves their offensive woes, seeings as how they couldn't score on the NYI either, who just got done giving up 7 to BUF.
Plus, I don't think the ATL defense is as bad as people are making it out to be. I think the 4 they gave up vs WSH was inflated because the Crapitals were playing catch up the whole game. Then they gave 2 to FLA (in reg) and 4 to MIN, but 3 of those were in the 3rd period. So take away a team playing catch up and one poor period vs MIN, and the ATL defense has been not so bad.
So putting what I see as a half decent ATL defense up against an NJ offense who is clueless, and has to be by far the worst one they have faced to this point, I can easily see a defensive struggle in this game, with it being very hard to see either one of these teams getting to 4 goals tonight in regulation, really....which other than 3-3 or an empty netter at 3-2 are the only ways I can lose this.
For + money, I'll give it a whirl....
ATL +130
See above. Just can't not bet against a team who can't score (dating back to last season) as a road chalk. Road faves that are inept either offensively or defensively are a recipe for disaster, imho, and NJD certainly qualifies as the former so far....
VAN/DET u5.5 -140
Not sure where the VAN goals are going to come from in this game. Now that they're done playing CAL, i think they will be back to their old ways of being unable to score, especially against one of the best defensive teams in the league. Even though it can certainly happen, you just can't count on one side to do it all, so I'm going with the under, despite the large juice. And it's not like the VAN defense is hopeless. If VAN puts up a few and this soars over, of if DET wins 5-1ish, then oh well, but I think the under is the correct side here.
FLA -110
MIN owns these guys dating back to like 2001 or something, lol. Why essentially a pick em at just -110 then? Fishy, imho....seems the books are loving every penny of MIN money they're currently pulling in on this one. I'll side with the oddsmaker here....
WSH +115
PIT is playing poor so far this year i'd say, despite their 2-1-1 record. The public seems to be looking for their breakout game to be tonight, however, as they are backing them in around the 75-80% range as a smallish home fave. The sharper money seems to disagree though, as the line has actually moved back slightly in the favor of the Crapitals at the sharper books, which makes sense to me since the Pens are not scoring much....and it's hard to win when you don't score.
WSH/PIT u 5.5 +100
Why only 5.5 here? The public certainly expects a shootout between Ovechkin and Crosby, so why not at least 6? Certainly the books could get even action at the very least with o6 on this game. Therefore I see this as a suspiciously low total, with a pretty strong move in the favor of the under too...most notably at Pinnacle who actually had the u5.5 favored at -107 for a while this morning. This has me thinking the books are siding with the under here, and that they have either gotten or fear getting sharp money on anything more favorable to the under. So I will grab some u5.5 while it's still even money at SIA, as Pittsburgh has scored just 7 regulation goals in 4 tries this year, with their best regulation output being 3 in their opener vs OTT, followed by 1 vs OTT, 1 vs NJD, and 2 against PHI. Maybe they lite up the lamp a combined 10x tonight for all I know....but I don't see how that isn't the exception rather than the norm by what has happened so far this year.
DAL/STL u5 +130
Talk about begging for over money, setting this total at just 5 when STL has totaled 7, 7 and 9 combined goals in their first 3 games, and DAL is coming off a 10 goal combined effort last night. Last night's DAL game was deceiving though, imo, because there were 10 goals, on just 47 combined SOG. Not too often the puck is going to go in the net every 4.7 attempts in a game.
More importantly, DAL allowed just 19 SOG the whole game, but the poor play of Turco allowed NSH to stay in the game. I look for DAL to continue to play solid defenively tonight against an STL team that probably isn't as good offensively as their totals to this point indicate....and for a tight low scoring affair throughout.
2 units each
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