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Fairly big sched today but not a whole lot I love, liked a couple and have a lean that I wont touch....
locked in
Toronto - 125 to win 1 unit over Tampa
This one boils down to the leafs need this game more, they match up well with the bolts, they're at home and the bolts have been on the road a hella long time. Toronto is one point out of a playoff spot and a big come from behind win over the sens has the leafs in a positive mood these days. Wellwood returned last game and while he didn't get any points looked as good as any leaf out there with the exception of Sundin. Perrault should also draw back in this game. The leafs have won all 3 of the match ups between these 2 this season, 14 of the last 19 overall and 8 of 9 in toronto. Bolts have had virtually the same team over the last few seasons while the leafs have had bad teams during the same span but the record speaks for itself, there seems to be a match up issue that favors the leafs so im not going against it. Leafs at home, they aren't great at home but any edge in a must win game is a + and they'll take it. Bolts have been on the road for their last 5 and this one makes 6, their sched wasn't overly condensed but for an eastern team going on a tough western stretch back with the time change back to the east where the home team looking for a big win is rested and waiting isn't a great spot for the away team. Public seems to be backing the bolts here but the lines not budging, if the books want me on the bolts i'll gladly take the leafs since all my info also wants me there.
Florida + 150 x 1 unit over Carolina
too much value on the panthers here imo. Technically the canes have only been on the road for the last 3 games but the 4 games prior alternated away/home/away/home then 3 on the road. Without getting multiple home games the one offs at home may as well be road games as they don't settle in before they are back out again. Being back and getting to settle in for a few now after what I deemed a long roadie, this is the let down spot. First game back is tradtionally a down game. Canes haven't impressed me as of late on their home ice with key losses to teams they should've beaten while in a playoff hunt. Florida for its part is playing the best it has all season and feels like it could sneak into the playoffs. Losing ward is a massive loss for the canes. He hasn't had a great year but he was the tender they rode the cup so there is confidence in him. Grahame is a retread from the bolts, he couldn't hack it there and the canes play a similar style in that they give up a lotta chances and rely on their tender to make saves while their offense puts up goals. Belfours playing well so goals may not be easy to come by and the way the panthers are clicking Grahame better be on top of his game, he hasn't had much success this year going 7-11, and his lifetime vs the panthers is a losing record. Panthers are in better form, have the better tender, while the canes are in a let down spot. I have the canes as a slight favorite but at this price the panthers scream value.
Sens -131 to win 1.5 units over NYR
Lundqvist has played a lotta games in a row now and was complaining that he's getting a bit tired, Jagrs a bit knicked up, Hossas out and Tyutins out. Sens coughed up another one on Saturday and still looking to right the ship. The rangers are playing well but this makes 3 in 4 nights and with a team that is already banged up and tired it asking a lot for them to come up with another big performance against a sens team thats owned them going 11-3-1 in their last 15. Volchenkov returns for the sens and gets them back their big shot blocking stud who was missed against the leafs where he left with a broken nose. The rangers haven't been a great home team while the sens have proved to be a solid road team. In the end the sens can be physical and can roll 4 lines and 2 solid d pairings that can contain Jagr, this isn't a good spot for the rangers nor a good match up in this bad spot.
As for leans...
Minny over Vancouver, both have been on the road for a bit but the big factor for me is Mitchell is a question for my nuckers. I wont bet against my boys ever but if Mitchell is out that leaves a monster hole in our d. He and Bieksa are our shutdown pair and even with them Gaborik and Demitra have proved a tough match up. I don't know who would move up into that shutdown role, maybe they pair up salo and ohlund but that leaves bieksa/sopel combo and krajicek/fitzpatrick neither that I could completely trust to shutdown a 2nd line, and the wild have a solid 2nd line. Mitchells the glue on our d if he's confirmed as out there is value on the wild. We also shut the wild down pretty good last match up, im sure they're looking for some payback. Its tough to go against my nucks tho with how they're playing. If you like value take a look if you want a surer thing back off.
locked in
Toronto - 125 to win 1 unit over Tampa
This one boils down to the leafs need this game more, they match up well with the bolts, they're at home and the bolts have been on the road a hella long time. Toronto is one point out of a playoff spot and a big come from behind win over the sens has the leafs in a positive mood these days. Wellwood returned last game and while he didn't get any points looked as good as any leaf out there with the exception of Sundin. Perrault should also draw back in this game. The leafs have won all 3 of the match ups between these 2 this season, 14 of the last 19 overall and 8 of 9 in toronto. Bolts have had virtually the same team over the last few seasons while the leafs have had bad teams during the same span but the record speaks for itself, there seems to be a match up issue that favors the leafs so im not going against it. Leafs at home, they aren't great at home but any edge in a must win game is a + and they'll take it. Bolts have been on the road for their last 5 and this one makes 6, their sched wasn't overly condensed but for an eastern team going on a tough western stretch back with the time change back to the east where the home team looking for a big win is rested and waiting isn't a great spot for the away team. Public seems to be backing the bolts here but the lines not budging, if the books want me on the bolts i'll gladly take the leafs since all my info also wants me there.
Florida + 150 x 1 unit over Carolina
too much value on the panthers here imo. Technically the canes have only been on the road for the last 3 games but the 4 games prior alternated away/home/away/home then 3 on the road. Without getting multiple home games the one offs at home may as well be road games as they don't settle in before they are back out again. Being back and getting to settle in for a few now after what I deemed a long roadie, this is the let down spot. First game back is tradtionally a down game. Canes haven't impressed me as of late on their home ice with key losses to teams they should've beaten while in a playoff hunt. Florida for its part is playing the best it has all season and feels like it could sneak into the playoffs. Losing ward is a massive loss for the canes. He hasn't had a great year but he was the tender they rode the cup so there is confidence in him. Grahame is a retread from the bolts, he couldn't hack it there and the canes play a similar style in that they give up a lotta chances and rely on their tender to make saves while their offense puts up goals. Belfours playing well so goals may not be easy to come by and the way the panthers are clicking Grahame better be on top of his game, he hasn't had much success this year going 7-11, and his lifetime vs the panthers is a losing record. Panthers are in better form, have the better tender, while the canes are in a let down spot. I have the canes as a slight favorite but at this price the panthers scream value.
Sens -131 to win 1.5 units over NYR
Lundqvist has played a lotta games in a row now and was complaining that he's getting a bit tired, Jagrs a bit knicked up, Hossas out and Tyutins out. Sens coughed up another one on Saturday and still looking to right the ship. The rangers are playing well but this makes 3 in 4 nights and with a team that is already banged up and tired it asking a lot for them to come up with another big performance against a sens team thats owned them going 11-3-1 in their last 15. Volchenkov returns for the sens and gets them back their big shot blocking stud who was missed against the leafs where he left with a broken nose. The rangers haven't been a great home team while the sens have proved to be a solid road team. In the end the sens can be physical and can roll 4 lines and 2 solid d pairings that can contain Jagr, this isn't a good spot for the rangers nor a good match up in this bad spot.
As for leans...
Minny over Vancouver, both have been on the road for a bit but the big factor for me is Mitchell is a question for my nuckers. I wont bet against my boys ever but if Mitchell is out that leaves a monster hole in our d. He and Bieksa are our shutdown pair and even with them Gaborik and Demitra have proved a tough match up. I don't know who would move up into that shutdown role, maybe they pair up salo and ohlund but that leaves bieksa/sopel combo and krajicek/fitzpatrick neither that I could completely trust to shutdown a 2nd line, and the wild have a solid 2nd line. Mitchells the glue on our d if he's confirmed as out there is value on the wild. We also shut the wild down pretty good last match up, im sure they're looking for some payback. Its tough to go against my nucks tho with how they're playing. If you like value take a look if you want a surer thing back off.
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