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not a great night last night with my big play brought down by Simons brain cramp but hoping to make some money back tonight
I am trying to limit my plays but its tough when you get a sched like todays thats screaming out at me....
Dallas -140 to win 1 unit over Columbus
The jackets are coming on and the stars are slumping, thus I can't bring myself to really go hard at this play. That being said there are enough factors involved that I feel make it a play. First, Turco draws back in, from mid feb up until just his last outing he was playing as good as he has at any point this season. I dont see that last outing vs SJ as a bad outing or a change in his form just bad timing as the sharks had lost a few straight and were struggling to put the puck in the net, a breakout was coming and it just happened to be in his game. He has however played the jackets very tough in his career going 9-1 with a tidy 2.08, the one he lost was this season tho but in a shootout where he still played well . 2nd, Standings, the stars currently are in 6th but tied in points with calgary and minny, only a game in hand is keeping them out of the cellar where the avs are coming up quickly. 3rd, payback... this isn't the most important factor by any means but the stars lost to this jacket team just a week ago and in shootout where the stars have been money thru the past couple seasons and in Dallas, with the current losing streak and this being a chance to make up for a home loss there is a little added incentive. The main reason for not making this a bigger play is the stars current form and that they are off a game yesterday. I don't think the game yesterday will factor in too much as they did have 3 nights off prior to last nights game. As for current form they are too good a team to keep losing. The stars draw LA their next game so if tonight they don't bump the slump I cant see it going past LA.
Detroit -.5 in regulation - 170 to win 2 units
Regulation time and the juice is still heavy but for good reason. Detroit is nails at home at the worst of times but they'll be getting Hasek back in the pipes tonight after a injured layoff. The wings have some injury problems with Holmstrem, Cleary and Zetterberg out but with the talent they still have they could match up with a healthy kings team but this kings team is anything but healthy. They are missing Kopitar 3rd in scoring on their team, Visnovsky 4th in scoring as well as their pp qb and Blake arguably their team leader back up pp qb and 7th leading point getter on their squad. This LA kings defensive unit already lost Norstrom and Sopel off its back end at the deadline, which was 2 of its top 4, while adding Heward. That back end without Blake and Vis won't be any real threat on pp's and will have trouble outletting out of their back end. I expect a lot of dumpouts and trying to keep everything on the outside to slow the game down to a halt. Luckily as I saw firsthand over the years Crawford doesn't like his teams playing that style he like the game uptempo so his teams aren't good at holding leads or trapping to win games so while they may try to resort to this tonight I can't see them having any success with it. Kings won this match up the last time these 2 met which was back in january, a great game for the kings but if you look at the scoresheet: 1st goal, Visnovsky (injured), Goal 2, Blake from Conroy (injured and traded) , Goal 3, set up by Visnovsky and Kopitar , and goal 4 Avery (traded). That this one is their 3rd in 4 nights for the kings just makes it that much better.
Wild +.05 in regulation @ -102 to win 1 unit
Banking that the wild win this game outright or can get a point in which case im a winner either way. I don't like that this is 3 in 4 for the wild but I love that they get to face Conklin in this one. At least thats what is being reported if I find out differently i'll buy out this play, it was strictly a fade Conklin play. He's a civ, i've seen in stops from Edmonton to Columbus and he is brutal. The wild are 4-1-1 against him and know his game well from his northwest days. The sabres are the best teams he's got to play behind and while it'll make a difference in the end the sabres give up a lot of shots and rely on Miller to bail them out as they'll trade chances. If they play as loosely with Conklin the wild will bury it. The sabres are quick but in the wild they get a team who can match their speed so its not a bad match up for the wild. Fernandez might get the start, he always plays better when he has competition and Backstrom is making an argument for why he should be the number 1 tender, I would expect a good game out of manny. Western teams usually hold their own pretty well against the easterns best so while as a nuck fan im not pulling for a win I can see a ot scenario here.
Anaheim -265 to win 1 unit over Edmonton
Part of angs operation fade the oil plan. With the ducks losing Pronger and the ****ty line in regulation and hating the puckline im just taking the old huge chalk route of taking the ducks ml. Oil went from very bad to very brutal in one game when the lost Staios and Hejda and both their starting tenders have the flu supposedly. This ones in duck country, where the ducks are very tough. The ducks would really have to want to give this game away to lose it I just hope they put Jiggy in so I dont have to worry about Bryzgalov.
lotsa plays and lotsa chalk, im hopin for a good day
GL everyone
I am trying to limit my plays but its tough when you get a sched like todays thats screaming out at me....
Dallas -140 to win 1 unit over Columbus
The jackets are coming on and the stars are slumping, thus I can't bring myself to really go hard at this play. That being said there are enough factors involved that I feel make it a play. First, Turco draws back in, from mid feb up until just his last outing he was playing as good as he has at any point this season. I dont see that last outing vs SJ as a bad outing or a change in his form just bad timing as the sharks had lost a few straight and were struggling to put the puck in the net, a breakout was coming and it just happened to be in his game. He has however played the jackets very tough in his career going 9-1 with a tidy 2.08, the one he lost was this season tho but in a shootout where he still played well . 2nd, Standings, the stars currently are in 6th but tied in points with calgary and minny, only a game in hand is keeping them out of the cellar where the avs are coming up quickly. 3rd, payback... this isn't the most important factor by any means but the stars lost to this jacket team just a week ago and in shootout where the stars have been money thru the past couple seasons and in Dallas, with the current losing streak and this being a chance to make up for a home loss there is a little added incentive. The main reason for not making this a bigger play is the stars current form and that they are off a game yesterday. I don't think the game yesterday will factor in too much as they did have 3 nights off prior to last nights game. As for current form they are too good a team to keep losing. The stars draw LA their next game so if tonight they don't bump the slump I cant see it going past LA.
Detroit -.5 in regulation - 170 to win 2 units
Regulation time and the juice is still heavy but for good reason. Detroit is nails at home at the worst of times but they'll be getting Hasek back in the pipes tonight after a injured layoff. The wings have some injury problems with Holmstrem, Cleary and Zetterberg out but with the talent they still have they could match up with a healthy kings team but this kings team is anything but healthy. They are missing Kopitar 3rd in scoring on their team, Visnovsky 4th in scoring as well as their pp qb and Blake arguably their team leader back up pp qb and 7th leading point getter on their squad. This LA kings defensive unit already lost Norstrom and Sopel off its back end at the deadline, which was 2 of its top 4, while adding Heward. That back end without Blake and Vis won't be any real threat on pp's and will have trouble outletting out of their back end. I expect a lot of dumpouts and trying to keep everything on the outside to slow the game down to a halt. Luckily as I saw firsthand over the years Crawford doesn't like his teams playing that style he like the game uptempo so his teams aren't good at holding leads or trapping to win games so while they may try to resort to this tonight I can't see them having any success with it. Kings won this match up the last time these 2 met which was back in january, a great game for the kings but if you look at the scoresheet: 1st goal, Visnovsky (injured), Goal 2, Blake from Conroy (injured and traded) , Goal 3, set up by Visnovsky and Kopitar , and goal 4 Avery (traded). That this one is their 3rd in 4 nights for the kings just makes it that much better.
Wild +.05 in regulation @ -102 to win 1 unit
Banking that the wild win this game outright or can get a point in which case im a winner either way. I don't like that this is 3 in 4 for the wild but I love that they get to face Conklin in this one. At least thats what is being reported if I find out differently i'll buy out this play, it was strictly a fade Conklin play. He's a civ, i've seen in stops from Edmonton to Columbus and he is brutal. The wild are 4-1-1 against him and know his game well from his northwest days. The sabres are the best teams he's got to play behind and while it'll make a difference in the end the sabres give up a lot of shots and rely on Miller to bail them out as they'll trade chances. If they play as loosely with Conklin the wild will bury it. The sabres are quick but in the wild they get a team who can match their speed so its not a bad match up for the wild. Fernandez might get the start, he always plays better when he has competition and Backstrom is making an argument for why he should be the number 1 tender, I would expect a good game out of manny. Western teams usually hold their own pretty well against the easterns best so while as a nuck fan im not pulling for a win I can see a ot scenario here.
Anaheim -265 to win 1 unit over Edmonton
Part of angs operation fade the oil plan. With the ducks losing Pronger and the ****ty line in regulation and hating the puckline im just taking the old huge chalk route of taking the ducks ml. Oil went from very bad to very brutal in one game when the lost Staios and Hejda and both their starting tenders have the flu supposedly. This ones in duck country, where the ducks are very tough. The ducks would really have to want to give this game away to lose it I just hope they put Jiggy in so I dont have to worry about Bryzgalov.
lotsa plays and lotsa chalk, im hopin for a good day
GL everyone
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