***UDoggie's Week 1 Discussion/Plays***

[SammyJ]

tailed u guys on the under...good pick and great way to start the hectic season:beerbang:

[FearTheRaven]

UDogg, like the Falcons myself.

Also think Clev and Jets have a good chance of winning SU.

[Underdog88]

BKilla- My thoughts exactly. One thing's for sure, I couldn't back Minny with Tavaris at the helm & a bad D.

Sammy- Always good to start with a W, hopefully it continues...

FTR- Falcons line is still +142 @5Dimes, not quite sure where the line will move, if at all. Still thinking about the Jets, but I'm just not completely sold on the idea of fading the Pats in a situation they have historically succeeded in. What are your thoughts on the Ravens? I'm looking forward to that game :beer2:



Went ahead & added Philly. There is the question of how McNabb will perform, but he has always played well vs. the Pack & has Westbrook helps. Despite him lacking a top wr (though I think Brown will be solid), he still manages to get it done. All McNabb has to do is execute & avoid mistakes. I think the Eagles will be able to pressure Favre, & if they get ahead he'll be forced to abandon the run. That's when the turnovers start coming. I really like Daws' points about Philly being able to prepare for GB's 1 dimensional offense, assuming the run game isn't effective. The Eagles have a tough division to win, & need to start off strong. Although I think the Packers D could be underrated, it only makes me think Philly & under. Haven't really found a good enough reason not to play this, aside from the road-chalk aspect of it. Could GB win? Sure, but I think it's more likely Philly does- these are the games you win if you want to be considered a top team... still like the under, but the possibilities of late turnovers could equate with a late run of points (a la Colts/Saints). Still thinking about it as a smaller play.

[Underdog88]

added the Giants+6 & the Falcons +150 to the top. 5Dimes reduced, don't feel like waiting to see what the line does anymore, & it's a nice round number. I just don't see how Dallas can be favored by 6 pts to the Giants. No Glenn, which IMO is huge. No Ellis either... I'm banking on the Giants to show me there is life after Tiki. Putting some faith in that OL to win the battle in the trenches. Starting to look into totals, & this is what I'm leaning towards


KC/Hous u37.5- With Huard on the road & Herm as the coach, I would expect a conservative approach to this game. Heavy dose of LJ, short screens & the occasional play action to Gonzalez. I think Houston will have an improved offense, but by no means will they be explosive. Outside of Johnson, the wr core is pretty thin. Shaub needs to get some help from the run game, so Green should be getting quite a few touches. I expect pretty vanilla play calling for both teams, plus I think Houston's defense could be pretty tough this season. I would think it'll be a 17-13 type game. Lean to Houston, but the thought of laying chalk without seeing Shaub perform first, paired with having to go against a one man wrecking ball in LJ, makes me uneasy. Under or nothing for me in this game.

Den/Buff u37- I already posted my thoughts on the Bills as a whole. I think Losman will have trouble passing against the Broncos D, & relying on a rookie rb in Lynch to carry the load vs a good D is sketchy. Cutler in a hostile environment could cause some offensive misfires for Denver though. As always I suspect they'll be looking to pound the run & wear out the Bills. This leads to clock killing, so I think 37 pts is too much. The Bills total pts under 17 looks pretty good, but it's quite a conflict of interest for me.

Mia/Wash o34- Too low of a line, IMO. Miami's aging D on the road, Washington home games have a tendency to go over. Not sure about Miami's offense though....

NE/NYJ u40.5- Everyone is expecting an all out pass attack from NE, but I can see them grinding it out on the ground. I'm sure the Jets will look to establish the run, as Chad thrives off the play-action pass. Throw in 2 pretty solid defenses & you have a 37 pt total. The more I look at this, the more I prefer it to playing the side. Public loves the over, &, well you know how that goes.

[Underdog88]

One more total lean before I pass out...

Rams/Panthers u43- another situation where the public will likely be hitting the over, after all you have the Rams offense, not to mention Steve Smith. Well, take a look at the Panthers defense... Rucker & Peppers on the ends, Morgan in the middle- Jackson will have to earn his yards. Carolina smashmouth football on offense IMO, & this is not the same Martz-led offensive scheme.

[yomonte]

U, just like Vick was a coach killer, the Falcons are bettor killers

[Stifler's Mom]

Stif why dont you get tix to the eagles/ Bills in Philly i know you are a PA man as well. Im going to that game with my dad. November 30th.

I was actually asked to go to that game by a friend of mine who has season tickets. I suppose it could happen. I'll have to talk to him and see what the deal is i guess...

Udog - IMO you're missing out on the best play of the week if you lay off the Jets. That's a parlay/teaser buster waiting to happen if you ask me. I think the Jets win that one outright.

[Eman885]

The Browns punter Zastudil is not playing today. How much big of a difference will this make?

[Underdog88]

Emann- I'm not sure that that will make much of a difference.... Paul Ernster played all season for Denver last year....


Stif- Seems like a solid spot to play on the Jets. I dunno what it is, but I just can't bring myself to do it. Too many questions for me.... how banged up is Thomas Jones, will Pennington's noodle arm fall off, will Brady showcase his weapons. I guess I'm just not ready to fade the Pats quite yet, but I wouldn't play them either. I really hope you cash it :thumbs:


Yo- I don't like hearing that from you LoL. The Falcons (along with the Giants) are my favorite dog this week.

[Q-Unit]

bout time :beerbang:

git er done LOL

[Underdog88]

Thanks Q!

Added plays

Mia/Wash o17 1sth- gut feel play. I think there is a perception that both defenses are tough, but I just don't agree with that. Hoping for some sparks early, I think 3 tds isn't too far of a stretch for the first half.

Steelers-3 1sth- This game looks like the sucker bet. Probably should have left it alone, but I just don't see Cleveland stopping Parker, & I have Big Ben going today for fantasy (yikes!)....

Both totals are anti-public plays- the NE/nyj game jumped enough for me to play it. Last 5 meetings haven't gone over 41 pts. Leaning Raiders, Seattle for the 4 oclocks......

[Underdog88]

Rams-105 2ndh

1 unit

[Underdog88]

Baffled by the Jags performance today....


Seahawks-6-105

Raiders-3+100

3 units each



6pt pleaser

Seahawks-12
Chargers-13.5

1 to win 6 units

[Underdog88]

TB/Sea o19.5-115

Det/Oak u20-135 2ndh

3 units each

[Whaleydog]

GL UDOG....I like the under 2nd half Raiders