***UDoggie's Week 1 Discussion/Plays***

[Half-Man Half-Amazin]

hey udogg, havent really seen the whole board but discussing ur under play on colts/saints.. i see it seems like going up since i seen it at 51.5 now its at 53, jeez so if this was mid-season the total would be at 60???? cmon i doubt these teams will come out firing at each other in game one, also taking the under as well

Also like the Dallas/NYG under, trend play, they tend to go under in games they play.

GL this season

[Daws1089]

GB at home against an Eagles team that I just don't feel is very good at all. Donovan McNabb(in my eyes) is not back to 100% and half of that team still feels Jeff Garcia was the better option anyway. The Eagles WRs do nothing for me. Reggie Brown? Kevin Curtis? I'll pass on that combo. Westbrook is the only viable option on O anymore, outside of L.J. Smith. Their defense doesn't look much better to me, either. They cut their best LB in Jeremiah Trotter, so all that is left is an aging Takeo Spikes, Chris Gocong, and the Gaither kid. Coupled with an aging defense, Green Bay's offense will be vastly improved this year IMO. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are a decent combo on the outside, and I think Brandon Jackson instantly improves their running game. The Packers' running game would have been respectable last year had they not lost Ahman Green. And on the other side of the ball, I think Justin Harrell instantly will help eat up some blockers and let A.J. Hawk run free evern moreso than last year.


Sorry if that was choppy and weak, but I just got finished moving and I'm on a friend's computer trying to look over this stuff(his computer sucks). Basically what I'm trying to say is the Eagles are vastly overrated and the Packers will be improved. But by Sunday I'll be able to give a better overview. And I'll also be hoping to suck a half point more on the Pack and hit them for 2 units.

Brandon Jackson has been less than average in preseason. GB is even displeased about his play. Morency won't be able to tolerate any large load of work come sunday so that leaves GB with zero run game. If you let Jim Johnson scheme against an offense that is one demensional he will prevail. Greg Jennings has had a horrible preseason. I know he was good last season, but it didn't seem to me that him and Favre were on the same page nor do i think Favre really has faith in throwing to him. Favre loves driver and in preaseason he hooked up with Jones quite a bit. What I'm saying is the eagles probably are a little overrated, but GB does not have enough weaponry to get it done. LJ Smith may not play as well as Guard Andrews. Mcnabb did not really score any points in preseason when he was in there which leads me to believe that the birds might take a couple weeks until they are firing on all cylinders. Trotter has 2 bad knees and only plays 1st and 2nd down then comes out so i'm not sure how you can call that the best linebacker? If GB was going to beat Philly they would be wise to include their RB's and TE's in their passing attack. Just some random thoughts here on a team i feel i know a pretty good deal about. So i would not play the side either way, but the under looks favorable.

[Stifler's Mom]

Since this is a discussion thread, I wanted to add the rule of thumb for betting on the NFL. Those who were around at the old place know what I'm talking about, lol

NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER bet on an underdog of less than +7.5 if you are not convinced they should win the game outright. You have about a 10% shot of your team losing the game but covering any line of less than +7.5. This has been tracked and confirmed 3 straight seasons at the old joint.

Now as far as this week's home dogs....I LOVE the Jets, and really like the Pack as well.

As a Bills fan, I, like U-doggie am hoping they win this one and get off on the right foot for a change, but I always have doubt, seeings as how the Bills always seem to start the season slow for the last 10 years and dig themselves a hole they can't overcome once they start playing well, or just plain suck for the whole year. Buffalo has been a solid home team the last few years though....

I'm not sure what makes the Browns a good play at +4.5 or +5. I see alot of people saying they like it, but I can't help but to lean towards Pittsburgh (even though I probably wouldn't play it cause I despise road chalk) unless I am able to find something that changes my mind. The Browns are a joke at the QB position. Charlie Frye still sucks....and I don't see what is all of a sudden going to make them any good this year. Just put in Brady Quinn and get it over with already :beer2:

[NittanyLions94]

Since this is a discussion thread, I wanted to add the rule of thumb for betting on the NFL. Those who were around at the old place know what I'm talking about, lol

NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER bet on an underdog of less than +7.5 if you are not convinced they should win the game outright. You have about a 10% shot of your team losing the game but covering any line of less than +7.5. This has been tracked and confirmed 3 straight seasons at the old joint.

If my guy took ML bets in the NFL I would certainly lay some on GB. But, unfortunately, this day and age of gambling leaves me with no option but the +3(hopefully 3.5).

[fitter]

Just my take since this is a discussion thread...and I agree and try, notice I said try, to play the adage that Stiff expounds upon. Don't play the dog @ less than 7 unless you think they can win outright. Now for this weeks home doggies. Buffalo, not sure they can beat Denver, and that is enough for me. Would like to think so, and my mind may change as game time rolls around, but as of now, NAH. GB...I just can't see GB winning this one at all. And I am seriously looking at a play on Philly. Just can't see GB pulling this one off, especially with a very limited ground game IMO. NYJ are interesting. Are they ready, and can they win the game? The under 7 rule applies here, but I just might take a chance on NYJ, will decide a little later. 6.5 at home, against a division rival..might be worth a play. NE's defense can be had, but IMO, the NYJ will have to have some sort of ground game to control the time of possession by the NE offense. If the NJY defense is on the field over 35 minutes or even longer, this could be a long game for the NYJ. If they can keep TOP pretty equal, the NYJ have a chance IMO. And the crowd will be rockin'.
Clev- as a Stiller diehard, this game has all the warning signs flashing. Everyone thinks the Brownies suck, and they are currently a +5 dog, but this division usually plays it's heart out against each other. The current public number is 90-95% on the Stillers, and that also has me concerned. Again, this game constitutes a "homer" attitude, and it is tough for me to play against the Stillers. BUT, my inclination right now is to lay the load and hope for the best. Not a very professional attitude, but I just can't play against them. It might be a small play, or it could be a walk away situation for me. Not sure yet. I am not sure the Brownies are up to beating the Stillers. But, it is the first game, and anything can happen in all these games. And laying more that 2.5 on the road, with a 90-95% public balance on the Stillers right now, it certainly has all the signs of trouble to me. GB is my definite home dog that I would go against right now. (Watch me eat those words!!) BOL to all, play smart, and let's all make some green. Really enjoy all the points of view from everyone, really helps me determine my plays during the week. Thanks:beerbang: :glass:

[Stifler's Mom]

Is McNabb ready for game speed? That's one of my main concerns with the Eaglets. I suppose he could come out smokin and they could hammer GB, but I feel like the odds are in GB's favor as a home dog. I think McNabb will have a real ****ter in either week 1 or week 2, so if he does well this week and the Eaglets win, I'll probably try and bounce back with Washington in week 2 at what is sure to be a decent sized road dog number for the Skins.

Nittany - Last year I played 2 units on the + points on every dog of +7 or less that I played, and 1/2 unit on the ML. This year I am going to do 2 units on the ATS number and 1 unit on the ML (because my bankroll has increased dramatically since the start of last season, not just for the sake of doing so)....so yea, I take the points too. It's hard to train yourself not to take them at all and just lay your whole bet on the ML.

What I was mainly trying to say though, is that every year, and this year so far included from reading over thoughts and stuff that are already posted, that people are picking or liking dogs of under +7.5, saying they'll probably lose, but should keep it close. That thinking just doesn't work in the NFL....at least not for the 3 years I've tracked it.

Just pick the game winner, and you have the ATS winner just about every time.

So for example if you take the +5 with the Browns on Sunday, thinking it'll be a close game, but the Steelers will probably end up winning, and if you're right about the Steelers winning, you've put yourself in a situation with about a 10% chance of cashing according to the last 3 years of results. In other words, if you don't think the Browns have a strong shot to win outright, but don't like the Steelers either pass on the game entirely. If you feel strongly that the Steelers win the game, lay the -5.

[Daws1089]

^^^^

yup, the spread mattered in only 17%of all the games last season. and the spread mattered in 16% of the games in 2005. So pick whoever you think will win the game, to cover the spread as well and you should prevail.

[Daws1089]

Anyone else see some good value in the Wash/Mia under 34? These two inept offenses should be like watching paint dry imo. Trent Green will take some time to get into sync with the new WR in game speed. Miami appears to be going with a 2 back rotation with brown and chatman, why? i have no idea but they will try to pound it im sure. Portis is a lame duck. Betts is a good runner and will be in there a good amount this season. Campbell, well I just dont think he's all that good. Combine this with the pretty good defense of miami and an improved secondary/LB core of Washington and im thinking something like 20-10. The moves Wash made at LB may not have been "improvements" however. London Fletcher? I think thats a bit of a reach.

[rjp]

Hard to find a reason to play under such a small number. If anything you want to look for reasons why the OVER is undervalued.

[Underdog88]

Q- thanks for your take on your team. I think the secondary is very suspect, but it should be a very exciting conference to watch throughout the year....

HM/HA- I'm not saying there is no way this goes over, as it could be 35-35 with 2 minutes left. I just think there is a better chance this one stays under. No real opinion on the total for Dallas/NYG, but the G-men are a definite play.


Stif- Thanks for posting the rule of thumb- definitely a great rule to have, even if you take the points. As for the Bills, hell I'm always going to hope, seems like by gametime of every game I have convinced myself they are going to win LoL. You gonna try to make it to a game this year? A little correction to my post about Buffalo, it looks like Webster will be starting at cb, not Youboty. Doesn't matter much, it's still scary... I totally agree with you on the Browns- sure they could keep it competitive, but can they pull out the win? I just don't see it. All in all, I still think the Steelers have more talent & should be more cohesive. I will likely lay the road chalk there, but i won't be backing the Brownies for sure. I have concerns about McNabb as well, but agree with Daws in that GB's potential to be one-dimensional on offense could really hurt them vs. Philly. Philly or no play for me there...

Daws- liking the under more & more in the Philly/GB game. As for the Mia/Wash under, I would have a tough time playing that low of a total in week 1. I really don't know what to expect from either team defensively, & Miami is getting up there in age on the defensive side of the ball. Last year Washington had just one home game fall under 34 pts (17-13 loss to the Panthers). I think Betts will take over the load even more this year too. I originally was leaning towards the Fins as dogs, but I think there are better opportunities out there...GL whatever you decide

Fitter- who in the hell are the stillers? LoL just joking, gl with your plays.....


Only game I'm definitely on is the Giants, considering laying chalk with the Jags....

[birdsfan5]

GL Underdog like the Under:beerbang:

[yukoncornelius]

Hahah I'm watching sportscenter right now and they are pushign Saints/Colts as "shootout in the making". I didn't know Bristol was codename for las vegas lol...

Still not sure how I'm going to play that Colts game.

[Eman885]

Does anyone else love Tampa Bay getting 6 points vs. Seattle? Seattle is getting old(Hasselback is 32) and they also just lost Marcus Tubbs for the season. Without Tubbs, Seattle's D was terrible against the run. I think Garcia is a lot better of a QB than Gradkowski was. Also, According to sportsinsights 85% of the public is on Seattle.

[Pow]

UD, with 72% of the public currently on the OVER, i am loving this UNDER more and more

[fitter]

UD...stillers make hooch...LOL:beerbang: BOL this week to all.