Week 1: Horfball

[Horfin]

New England @ NY Jets
-
I absolutely hate when I agree with something so obvious: Last year if NE had a decent WR….it would have been NE vs. Chicago in the Super Bowl. Enter: Randy Moss, Stallworth, Gaffney and Walker, not to mention at TE: Watson and Brady. With Core Dillon gone the whole running game falls on the better of the two in Morency. On paper, this offense looks unstoppable. The OL suffered no changes. I honestly think this could be the best offense in the NFL…and I hate it because it is so obvious. The Jets defense needed help last year as the offense only scored 316 points. To help, the jets gained to DE. The Jets defense is injured: Dyson (CB) ankle, Smith(FS) ankle The jets will not be able to focus on the run with the injured secondary and the speed at WR.

On the Jets side, Pennington is truly a very good QB, he just never really had the weapons (other than C. Martin) to help him. The jets go with L. Washington and T. Jones at RB. Jones is listed as questionable. Last year the Jets offense was slightly below average and very few changes were made to improve its offense. The WRs have two dcent players in Crotchery and McCarriens and one great one in Coles. L. Washington is probably not the best option at a starting RB. The jets go against a defense that finished in the top 10 in most defensive categories last year. The Pats will be without Rodney Harrison and R. Seymour (the former because of drugs and the later for 6 weeks). The Seymour loss is not as big as people think as Jarvis Green is an adequate back up. The LBS of NE are very good from end to end in the 3-4 defense: Vrable, Bruschi, Adlaeous Thomas and R. Colvin. The 2ndary is not the best and it is not the worste. With the Quality at DL and LB, the 2ndary can truly hold its own.

Line: (NE -6.5/40)
Predicted Score
New England: 21
NY Jets: 17

Bets Placed: I hate road favs of more than 4, I really think NE takes this one. But I have to lay off, the correct play is either (1) no play or (2) a play on the jets. I have no faith in the Jets offense or ability to stop the WR of NE, so it’s a no play for me. I think the total is right on point. Just sitting back and watching this one.

[Horfin]

Atlanta @ Minnesota

How would you like this line up for your Fantasy team: QB: T. Jackson; RB: C. Taylor; WR: Bobby Wade, S. Rice T. Williamson and A Allison. Guess what? Someone has it and it is not a fantasy team it is the Minnesota Vikings. Jackson is unprovenand in a limited role last year and 4Int to his 2Td and completed 58% of his passes. C. Taylor is at best a backup RB and his backup is a Rookie. The WRs are unknown and lack experience. I don’t know how this team will score any points. This is kinda like the ravens when they won the super bowl….without Jamal Lewis. This offense was in the bottom 20s in most passing categories and it only got worse. I wouldn’t look for any high scoring games in Minnesota. Last year the philosophy was that the defense would keep them in games so the offense could score at the end. But there is no umpf in this offense. The Atlanta Defense is geared toward stopping the run and it quite frankly sucks against the pass. Not much changed on the Atl D, except Kearney leaving which is big. Minnesota can’t pass and won’t be able to run against this defense. The right side of the Minn OL is below average.

On the Atlanta O: Vick is gone and enter Harrington who sucked in Detroit and sucked in Miami. So what will make Atlanta any different: a rushing game. Atlanta added Mughelli from Baltimore which should help Atlanta’s rushing game. A Crumnpler is the true target for Harrington and the addition of Joe Horn should give him some options. Not to mention if Roddy White and Michael Jenkins can actually catch a ball thron their way, then this offense may move. NE last year exposed the Minn defense. No one can run against them, but NE showed you to say screw it, we’ll just pass every donw. Petrino just may take this approach. As good as Minn D is against the Run, they are as bad if not worse against the pass. Its only going to get worse with N. Harris (LB) and Fred Smoot gone. Minnesota has injuries at virtually every position on defense (some may not be listed)

Minnesota looks like it could be the worst team in the league. If Harrington can execute the Petrino offense, this one could get ugly:

(line Min -3/35.5)
Atlanta: 24
Minnesota: 9

Bet Placed: Atlanta +3

[Horfin]

Run out of time and didn't want to sleep through the games so here is the rest:

Tampa Bay @ Seattle
Line: (sea -6 and 41
Predicted Score
TB: 7
Sea: 20

Bets Placed: Seat -6 Under 41

Chicago @ Seattle
(Line: SD -6/ 42)
Chicago: 20
San Diego: 23

Bets Placed: Chicago +6

Detroit @ Oakland
(Line: Oak -2.5 / 39.5)
Predicted Score
Detroit: 23
Oakland 14
Bets Placed: Detroit +2.5

Decided to add: Houston -3 (-120) (0.75 units)

Middle the Man Parlay (1 Parlay per week):
Atlanta +3
Seattle -6
Detroit +2.5
Dallas Moneyline -250
½ unit to win 4.4 units

Here are the plays
Philadelphia @ Greenbay: Philadelphia -3
KC @ Houston: Houston -3 (-120) and Under 37.5
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland Under 36.5
Denver @ Buffalo: Denver -3 and Under 37
Miami @ Washington: Miami +3
Carolina @ St. Louis: St. Louis -1
Atlanta @ Minnesota: Atlanta +3
NE @ NYJ: None
Ten @ Jax: None
--------------4pm-----------
Tampa @ Seattle: Seattle -6 and Under 41
Chicago @ S. Diego: Chicago +6
Detroit @ Oakland: Detroit +2.5
-----------------------
Parlay:
Atl +3/Seattle -6/Detriot+2.5/Dallas ML (-250)


As always.........too many games. Note: I'm not on Dallas yet, this is a system I used last year and I am trying to perfect it, but the top 3 plays with the Fav on Sunday Night, if you win the first three of the parlay middle the man with the Dog with the points. See ya eventually on Sunday.

Horfin

[GamblinMan03]

gl Horfin

[BoKnows]

Gl H!

[fitter]

GREAT Writeups as usual Horf. Thanks for taking the time to do these. Didn't change my mind this week on any, but did help solidify 2 or 3 games I'm looking at. BOL this week. :beerbang:

[Horfin]

Well, I couldn't do it....I couldn't leave two games on the board.

I needed to play the HOMER play:

3 team 7 point teaser:
Titans +15
Jets +13
Under 48.5 in GB/PHI
1/2 unit to win 3/4 unit

Horfin

[Horfin]

Be back in a bit to update record.

Night Game:
NYGiants +6.5

Parlay:
NYG+6.5 and over 44.5
(0.5 unit to win 1.3)

Protection Teaser(7.5)
(0.7 units to win 0.5)
NYG +14 and over 37

Horfin

[Horfin]

Today:
Sides: 3-5-1 -2.3 units
Totals: 3-1 +1.7 units
Parlays: 0-1 -1.0 units

With all the NYG stuff pending.

Horfin

[Horfin]

Cincinnati -2.5 (-115)
San Fransisco -3 (-125)
Over 45.5 in SF/Arz

Horfin

[Horfin]

Sides: 3-6-1 -3.3 units
Totals: 3-1 +1.7 units
Parlays: 1-3 -1.0 units


I really like the SF play tonight. The line is off, everyone is looking at the sweep last year by Arz. Arz really isn't proven on the road, new coach, SF has beefed up the D. I may have to add units to SF. I seem to be in the minority on this one and with a 3-6-1 on sides, you have to wonder.


Horfin

[Horfin]

Parlay:
Cin ML, SF ML, Balt/Cin Under 40
1/2 unit to win 4

Condom 10 pt Teaser:
Cin +7.5, SF +6.5, Over 36.5 in SF/Arz
.6 units to win 1/2


Worked well last night. Always were a condom with the parlays.


Horfin

[Horfin]

Not the best week in the world, but the condom teasers have protected any real losses:

Sides: 4-6-2 -2.4u
Totals: 3-2 +0.7u
Parl/Teas 2-4 -1.0

Horfin