Week 1: Horfball

[Horfin]

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts

New Orleans Saints
The Offense of the Saints is very potent. Don’t let the loss of Vick Apologist Joe horn fool you, the WR corps of the Saints is just as good, if not better, than they were with him. Colston was ROY runner up and D. Henderson are a great WR couple. Add to this Mix the addition of TE (from San Fransisco) Eric Johnson you have a very good passing game and we haven’t even talked about Brees. The Brees run offense was NUMBER 1 in the NFL last year. The 1-2 punch of McAllister and Bush make this offense as stellar as the Colts. These teams offensively are very similar….a reliance on the pass and average numbers with the run. All of these players are pretty young and they will continue to gel and you will see more and more and more points on the board.

There are two real knocks on the Saints D from last year: (1) an inability to stop the run and (2) an inability to force turnovers. To try to help these two areas (and to help defend the pass), DB B Scott, DB O Stoutmire, LB D Clark are gone. The saints borought in J. David (CB) K. Kaesviharn (DB), L. Legree (DT) to try to help. The LBs of this team look great with one possible weakness at ROLB. The DL should stiffen and clean up with the support of the LBs. In the 2ndary the DB McKenzie is a weak spot on the left side.

Indianapolis Colts

There is little need to discuss the colts offense as it is a juggernaut, however there were some changes that must be considered: D. Rhodes left for the Raiders and Addai will become the full-time back. This could be significant as last year there were only 4 rushers for the Colts: Addai, Rhodes, Manning and Carthon, with the following RA: 226,187,23,3. Either Addai rushes almost 2x as often or Keith (the CFL convert) will have to pick up the difference. The other important note on the Offensive side of the ball is the retirement of T. Glenn (T). This leaves them with NO EXPERIENCE on the left tackle side of the ball with ROOKIE Ugoh and 2 game experienced Federkeil. The Final important Offensive change is Stokley departing and being replaced with Ohio State Rookie Anothy Gonzales as the third WR (or possible Moorehead). I can’t even find a Fullback on the Colts Roster. At home the Colts scored 21 or more points in every game except 2 (14 vs. Tennessee and 17 vs. Buffalo). Colts were 5-2 ATS at home (I’m leaving out the final game vs. Miami) but were 8-0 SU at home. The two ATS losses were the two games of 14 and 17…both wins by 1 point.

The Colts defense has long been the oddity as Dungy is suppose to be a Defensive Coach, but his offense is explosive. In the off-season the Defense doesn’t seem to have improved. Both starting Corners are gone: N Harper and J. David, not to mention that Mike Doss is gone. This leaves Bob sanders and A. Bethea as the Safeties. Both are well-documented good at run support. The CBs of Hayden and Jackson may be a true problem when facing really good WRs. Another HUGE loss for the Colts is Cato June and Montae Reagor (LB and DT). The MLB position could be a major debacle as the Colts go with Bracket who struggles against the run. Teams who run up the middle may be successful in pulling the secondary in and then burning the colts with deep passes. Keiaho takes over for June and only has 2 years of NFL experience. Rob Morris returns at LOLB and is solid. The D-Line returns with a Rookie at DT, and behind the usual starters of Freeny, Brock and Mathis, there is a WHOLE BUNCH of inexperience. The Colts Defense held opponents at home under 21 points in ½ the games last year (Tennessee, Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Jacsonville).Teams that can rush will have success against this team.

The Saints on offense should find lots of room to run and be very very successful at the run. The no. 1 saints offense should fair well against this defense at passing. It really looks like the colts defense has taken a step (or two or three) back. If this weren’t the first game of the season, I’d say the Saints easily put up 31 points against the Colts (however, there will be rust on both teams, so the 31 points is just a guess.) The Colts offense should do very well when McKenzie is on Harrison. Addai might get worn down as the game progresses and hurt the Colts offense late in the game. If the Saints put up a lot of points, the Colts won’t be able to exploit the potential weakness of run defense. Look for the Colts to hit 24 to 27 points.

Projected Final Score:
Saints 28
Colts 24

Bets Placed:
New Orleans +6

[rjp]

Saints

[yukoncornelius]

As a monster Colts fan... this game scares me big time. Saints are very dangerous... even though its at Indy, 6pts to the Saints seems to be a nice value.

Hard game to call in my opinion...

[fitter]

with ya on this one Horf....let's get this season off on the right foot.:beerbang:

[Horfin]

Thanks for the input Yukon! and Fitter....here is to a 1-0 start: :beerbang:

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

Philadelphia Eagles
On Offense McNabb was having a career year (although short) until he was injured (18TDs and 6 INTs). Garcia led the team to the Division Title but was then kicked to the side. McNabb returns and the question is will he be a Carson Palmer or a D. Culpepper the year after his injury. Westbrook accounts for so much of this offense: 240 carries and 77 receptions that you have to wonder if the other players just end up standing around and watching. Donte Stallworth hit the road after a short stint in Philly being replaced by Kevin Curtis….Seems like a drop off in talent. The OL is strong and deep only allowing 28 sacks last year. LJ Smith is a strong target at TE.

On Defense the whole DL is shaken up from last year: Kearse returns after missing 14 games. Bunkley was a bust as a rookie, but is now a starter. The team was forced to blitz a lot last year to make up for a lack of a pass rush. Eagles ranked 26th against the run. A big change in Phily was the release of J. Trotter at the close of pre-season, but they signed T. Spikes. There seems to be a lack of depth and experience in the LB corps. In the secondary Sheppard and Brown are the Corner with long timer Dawkins at S. Considine is suspect against the run.

Green Bay Packers

On offense the Packers lost much more than they gained. Formerly Packers staples Wm Henderson and Ahman Green are gone. Further TE David martin has gone elsewhere. The Offense is banged up from pre-season: Driver has a sprained foot. RBs Jackson and Morency are both injured (although rookie Jackson will play). Morency has a strained knee (I think) Rookie RB D. Wynn was injured as well. Replacement FB Powdrell was placed on IR. If Driver plays GB always has a decent passing game. Jennings is a solid #2 WR. Other than that the Offense is green bay could be damn near pathetic.

On Defense the secondary is definitely a bright spot, although the stats don’t back it up. On Paper the 2ndary looks very good with Woodson, Harris, Bigby and Nick Collins. The LBs are a group of hard hitters with Poppinga the lone potential weakness (other than a lack of depth at all three LB positions). The DL is strong and can get pressure and stop the run. The defense is much better than I expected to see.
Green Bay was shutout twice at home last year and failed to break twenty points in 5 of their 8 home games. Everyone will make a big deal out of the packers winning the last 4 games of the season, but the wins were against SF, Det, Min and Chicago (benching starters). With the losses on offense and the turnovers of Favre, the pack will have a hard time breaking the 17 point mark against Philly. Seems like the defensive weakness of Philly is the running game and there ain’t much running going on in GB. Philly historically (I believe) starts strong in September. I think the lack of experience on offense for GB and Favre trying to do too much will give Phily short fields. Westbrook may be unstoppable and ultimately wear down the front of the defense. Philly nails at least 23 points.

Predicted Score: (Phi -3)
Philadelphia 24
Green Bay 14

Bets Placed: Philadelphia -3
I like the under in this one, but an extra TD would blow it, so not sure if I am going to play it.

Once I have all the write ups of the games I am playing I will post a summary of all the plays I play.

[Q-Unit]

GL this year Horf!

like the Saints play, good writeup

[Underdog88]

Excellent writeups Horfy, leaning on Philly & the under as well. I'm not sure if LJ Smith will play for the Eagles, & Spikes will probably be hurt during the first defensive series LoL. GL as always :thumbs:

[V3r1f13d]

Im carrying over the "If its under 7 just pick who you think it going to win, 89% ATS Under 7) mentality into this year. It did well for me last year soIm rolling with it.

With that being said.

Orleans ML +210

[Horfin]

thanks guys for the compliments. It is really appreciated.

Here is another one:
Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Tennessee
The Titans finished on a 6-1 record and while everyone focuses on that consider that the Titans top WR is gone and they are left with Brandon Jones, Justin Gage and D Givens. Not much to write home about. TE Troupe misses play calls and shows up in the wrong place in his routes. Scaiffe is good but can’t hold up for an entire season. Moulds is big and physical but is aging and can’t keep a continuing role anywhere. Add to that the loss of T Henry leaving their 3rd best rusher (l. White) as the main RB (V. Young was 2nd). White only had 61 carries last season. Not much experience at that level. The OL is a constant and should allow fewer than last years 29 sacks with young playing all season. The problem with the OL is depth. If there is an injury, Young better have his running shoes on.

On Defense the loss of Pacman Jones is HUGE.as he not only solidified the 2ndary but provided a great boost on special teams. The titans brought in Corey Simon from the Colts to try to improve the 30th ranked rush defense. There will be no 6 game suspension for Haynesworth which should realy help this defense. As bad as the titans are against the rush, the Dl’s pass rush was just as bad. The starting three LBs may be the true bright spot, however there is no depth so any LB injury can seriously harm the team. The Lbs are particularly good at pass coverage. The 2ndary struggled last year, and with the loss of Pacman and the signing of Nick Harper from Indy (In a new style of defense) could spell a LOT of trouble for this defense.


Jacksonville

In what I think was the dumbass bonehead move of the year, Leftwich is not a starter anymore. Garrard is like Holcomb…great of the bench but give him the start and you win .400 or less. Dumb Dumb Dumb move. Taylor with Jones-Drew is a great 1-2 punch which defenses will find it hard not only to stop but to guess who when and where. This should generate a good passing game. However, the WR seems like they are only a step or two above the Titans WR group. All the WR are big and tall, but their hands are questionable at times. The team will focus in the beginning on the run.

On Defense there isn’t much to say. The defense is stellar. Actually last year’s 2nd best team. Which is really impressive considering that by the end of the year 3 starters (3/11) were on Injured Reserve. This defense will only get better. Better against the run and better against the pass. The DL could be the no 1 defensive line in the league against the pass and the rush. As good as the DL is, the LB may even be better (against pass and rush). If anything on the defense is a weakspot it could be the 2ndary, and could is the operative word. Don’t look for them to be dominated, they just aren’t quite as good as the DL and LBs, but they are definitely a group in the top 10 2ndarys in the NFL.

Moulds is a very important addition on Offense, but the loss of Henry will hurt a LOT. The OL is good but will probably be outmanned by the Jax Defense. The Jags should be able to run the ball down the throats of the Titans. Unless Harper is comfortable, Garrard may look like Montana against these CBs in this situation. I’m a biased Titans fan, but this season does not look good. The titans will be lucky to hit 17 points against this defense. Jacksonville should but up a minimum of 21 points.

Predicted Final Score: (-6.5 and 38)
Jacksonville 23
Tennessee 13
Being that I am biased and don’t want to believe any of the above, I will not be making a bet on this game. However if I had to I’d be on Jax -6.5 and Under 38. but I am not so I won’t.


Should have two or three more tommorrow night.

[birdsfan5]

GL Horfin

[Horfin]

The Over/Under in Saints/Colts seems to be growing. Therefore I will pro'lly play the Under. Just gonna wait to see how high it claims...At 53 at my book

[Daws1089]

a couple things to add to the saints/colts analysis. Saints added former eagle Dhani Jones at Sam LB. he is a good run supporter, but not much use against the pass.

Also, McFarland is injured on the Colts d-line which takes away a veteran and probly someone who has little experience fills in.

[Horfin]

Well.................................you can't win'em all. Never got the damn Under play in (I feel like QN)....damn direct tv messed everything up!
So instead of the 1-1, only got the 0-1

Horfin

[Horfin]

Kansas City @ Houston

Get ready to chuckle….
I’m a big D. Carr fan, but he wasn’t a good fit in Houston. Shaub is untested (2 starts) but at least from the pre-season play, he seems to make quick good decisions. This is a welcomed change in Houston. The OL should build confidence under the 2nd year with Kubiak and the better QB for this job. However, there is NO depth at OL. If there is an injury then Houston will go back to the sack happy ways. The addition of Green at RB is an upgrade over last years R Dayne and Dayne should be a nice change up from Green. The WR corps, other than A. Johnson are a joke. So don’t look for a shoot-out type team. Look for a slow grind it out offense that is close at the end of the game (kinda like Capers offense). Houston is a better team than last year on offense and on defense.

According to one source (I didn’t double check it) the Texans Defense finished in the top 10 in the 2nd half of the 06 season. The DL should improve with a healthy M Williams and more players (Okoye and Zgonia) focused on pass rush. More pressure on the QB is what is needed in Houston. Ryans is an excellent LB (ROY last year) and should only improve. The other LB are more focused on Run stop which limits (necessarily) their ability to stop pass (poor pass coverage). The Texans made no changes in the secondary in the off-season. Assuming the DL can get more pressure on the opposing QB, the 2ndary should fair well with: McCleon, Faggins, Brown and Simmons

Kansas City Chiefs
Where to start? The OL. The two gaurds and center are strong. The problem for this team is the tackles. In preseason there were injuries to LT and his backup in preason was burnt time and time again. At RT Turley and Terry should glimpse of success and glimpse of terrible play. At RB the holdout of LJ will be damning early on. Look for LJ to have problems in blocking situations and miss some communications. A holdout at RB is never a good thing. He will start much slower than people think. Huard was excellent last year going 5-3 and his TD/INT ratio was 11;1. Impressive. This year will probably be worse as the running game support won’t be as good and teams have film to study of him now. Edwards system is to gain 10 yards per three downs, look for a low scoring offense.

The DL of KC is average at best. The DE don’t have the best pass rush and can be overpowered at times. What they do have is speed. Johnson, Edwards and Harris are fast LBs built for a defense to defense the pass. Look for a potential of problems stuffing the run. In the secondary Surtain and Law are aging. With a lack of pass rush these two can get burned often. The safeties both have their own problems: tackling and coverage. Not a good combination. The secondary will not provide the best run-support. With LBs built for coverage and a secondary lacking in run support could spell troubles against offenses with a smash mouth type attidue. For the most part it appears as though the defense is built for speed and not power.

KC has way too many problems: QB, OL, and secondary. Houston has improved on offense and should improve on defense. The OL of KC will have problems and may make M. Williams look like a No. 1 draft pick. I think the holdout hurts LJ in this game and both teams lack any threat at WR (other than Gonzels at TE). This is one of those games were the first one to 20 wins (if either one gets there).

Predicted Final Score (Hou-3 and 37.5):
Kansas City: 13
Houston: 17

The under looks like a nice strong play, No Play on the side as I’d like to see how the OL of KC fairs and see what LJ does. Additionally I can easily see this one coming down to a FG at the end of the game for either team. Not strong enough to play the side.

Bets Placed: Under 37.5


Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Pittsburgh Steelers
Roth finally had a more or less uneventful off-season, so you’d think. No apendectimy, no motorcycle accident…nothing…except losing the head coach of the Steelers from the previous 15 years. Kinda eventful. The Steelers finished strong in their last 8 will Cowher going 6-2. Roth is better when the pressure is not on him. He is better after successful plays and is bad (as he lets the previous play stick in his head) after a bad play. If his running game is on, then expect him to be on as well. If not, well… On Offense very little has changed since last year. However with the new coach Roth will be given much more room to make decisions, more audibles, more 4 WR sets. Ward is one of the Best WR in the league, but all four of the WR are short (the tallest being 6’1). The offense will be more aggressive and there will be more 1 back sets.

If there was any weak spot to the Pitt defense it was the secondary. It should be improved this year as Rossum comes over from Atl to strengthen the team. The DL may just be one of the most underrated DLs in the league. Hampton and Keisel hold their own in passing and rushing situations. There is not much depth, but what is there is pretty good. Look for a good pass rush as well as a very good run stop. The wild-card of this team is the LB group. Porter is gone and is replaced with Harrison (previously a career back up LB). The other two positions will be filled with rookies on passing downs. Over the Middle could be problematic for this LB group.


Cleveland Browns
Frye should be the starting QB. He had some impressive spots, but ended with 17 int and only 10 TDs. All of that could be attributed to a poor OL and not much of a running game. The OL of Cleveland should be much improved beginning on opening day and it will be more than apparent. Due to various roster moves the OL will improve even more after game 4 and game 6 (players coming off PUP and suspensions). Obviously the addition of J Lewis will help the QB, as a good running game opens up a passing game. With more time, more of a running game and more protection, Frye just may hold off Quinn for the entire season. Edwards, Winslow and Jurevious are decent WRs. This offense is much improved over last year.


On Defense, the DL has some issues. O. Roye missed all of preseason and is recovering from knee surgeroy. In the 3-4, not a single starter is a really good pass rusher. Look for opposing QBs to have time to pass against this defense. Roye is stout against the run, but he will be rusty. Last year the Browns gave up 140 rushing yards per game. For the first few weeks you have to believe that the Browns LB corps will be well below average: A. Davis (MLB) missed the last three preseason games with an ankle injury. McGinest will miss the first 3 games from back surgeroy. Both Jackson (ILB) and Williams (BMLB) played spotty in pre-season. In the secondary their seems to be a lack of experience with a Rookie starting at LCB and Pool a new starter at FS. Last year the defense collected 18 interceptions. If there is a pass rush, they may do very well in the secondary.
The Cleveland Defense looks rather scary and I don’t think this is the right team to judge the browns against. Roth, Parker, Ward will do well against this group. Wait to after week 4 to judge this defense. Clevelands offense will be much better than last year with the improvements to the OL and Running game. Pittsburgh was eratic in points last season making a Over/Under a hard pick. That being said I doubt Cleveland puts up more than 10 points in this spot and Pittsburgh should hover around the 17-20 mark.
(Line: Pitt -4.5 and 36.5)

Pittsburgh 17
Cleveland 10

Bets placed: Under 36.5 I’m not a big fan of Road Favs of more than 3 points and have learned to pick and chose those teams carefully. I see an easy back door cover by Cleveland. Just going with the under in this one.

[Horfin]

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
Unfortunately this game has blow out written all over it…at least you’d think. Let’s start with the Denver defense. It should boast the best 2ndary in the league. The DL was a weak spot so the addition of Simeon Rice at DE should improve that position as well. The only real weakspot of the defense COULD be the LB position, Webster hasn’t had a break out year in all seven years. Williams at MLB has had difficulties in trying to learn the defense. The srong spot at LB is Ian Gold. On paper the 2ndary and DL look outstanding, the defense should look impressive against average or below average offenses. Enter the Buffalo Offense. Losman had his moments, but there is no mentor left in Buffalo. Losman has one true target in Lee Evans. Peerless Price and J. Reed are also there but they are merely names and nothing more. The RB position is taken over by Lynch, which I think will ultimately be turned over almost completely to A. Thomas, but in the beginning with the Rookie..there could be problems. The offense was bad last year and no changes really seemed impactful. Buffalo Should be content with 13 points with this offense against this defense.

Denver is turning the old adtage: “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it” on its ear. They have traded away their starting (and leading) rushing four straight years. You’d have to figure one year it will bite them in the ass. Cutler has ½ a real season under his belt and should improve some.The addition of Brandon Stokley and the emergence of Brandon Marshall could create a good passing game (rod smith if he plays and of course J. Walker). The Buffalo Defense has disaster written all over it. Spikes (LB), Fletcher (LB) Clements are gone. DE Denny is injured and won’t play, LB Ellison will not play, Hargrove is suspended and Al Wallace is on IR. There will be a lack of depth on the DL and a definite lack of experience throughout the defense. However, Denver’s offense does not seem to be explosive (the last two years Denver has been beaten out in the opener). I see no way that Buffalo wins this game. But Denver shouldn’t blow the game open until late in the game.

Predicted Score:
Denver 20
Buffalo 10

Bets Placed: Denver -3 (-120) and Under 37


Miami @ Washington

The Dolphins improved at Head Coach and at QB bringing Green from KC and kicking Culpepper and Harrington out the door. Additionally the OL should be much improved with three recent additions, shouldn’t be realized until a few weeks have passed. Ginn, Jr. joins the WR of Booker and Chambers, which with a decent QB should do quite well (Which green is). The Redskins present a FAST and impressive DL which should force KC to go with a lot of draws and a short passing game. Miami will problaly go with a run-first mentality against last years 27th ranked rush D. Ronnie Brown should receive a ton of carries and a lot of success. It is doubtfull that Green will throw much downfield against what looks to be a good secondary.
On Defense Miami is strong. Plus they added Joey Porter. This year the Dolphins should be blitz happy and they have the personell to do it. Look for it to be fast paced and hectic against a Washington OL that is questionable particularly with Kendall (just signed) and Samuels with a sore knee. Miami, if smart, will stack 8 in the box to stop the Wash running game and put the game in Campbell’s unsteady hands. Miami should be able to bring down the running game of Washington (or slow it just enough) to force Washington (Campbell, Moss, Cooley, etc) to beat them in the air. Washington won’t have enoufh against this defense. The wrong team is favored.

(Line: Washington -3/34.5)
Miami: 21
Washington: 14

Bets Placed: Miami +3 (-105)