playoffs

[Stifler's Mom]

0-4 turnover ratio. once the playoffs roll around, the bungles will be the bungles, lol

adding:

sf/gb o46 -105

3 units

[Underdog88]

Gl stif....like the over as well gb tt over

[Stifler's Mom]

playoffs ats 3-2 +7.35
playoffs dog ml's 2-0 +2.52
playoffs parlays 2-0 +7.72
playoffs futures 0-1 -1.00
playoffs overall 7-3 +16.59

-----

ne -7 -115

6 units

getting this in early because I believe it's going to go up.

remaining plays open from last weekend:

seattle to win super bowl +265 x3
chargers to win afc +2000 x1
sd vs sea in super bowl +3675 x1

[Billy The Kid]

Stiff, what are your thoughts on the SF line? I jumped on the 49ers ML -120 early Monday anticipating it going up quickly. When it sat at SF-1 I started questing the play, wondering if I got sucked in to a square bet. I am now having second thoughts and just bought it back by playing Carolina at a pk until I can get a better feel. I was originally leaning SF, who imo is the better team. But my thinking now is if books anticipated a SF win, why not set this line at SF-3? All I'm hearing and seeing around the web/from public is pro SF talk and discussions of a 3rd game v Seattle and I'm seeing the public on SF at a 78% clip. It doesn't seem like too many people are taking Carolina seriously with their lack of "big names" besides Cam. This is a red flag to me and something that I have been able to capitalize on this year by spotting. Curious to get your thoughts as I hold your opinions on line setting/movement in high regards. Am I talking myself out of a play? Or is my concern justified and should Carolina pk be the play?

[Stifler's Mom]

Billy....I'm pretty busy today, sorry, but I will try to give my opinion on that game tomorrow morning sometime...

in addition to the pats play above, I am adding for Sat:

aints +9.5 -101

6 units

colts tt u22.5 -115

3 units

aints ml +360
3 team ml parlay @+2224: aints/pats/chargers
aints to win the super bowl +2375

1 unit each

[Stifler's Mom]

aints sure know how to shoot themselves in the foot....

[Stifler's Mom]

Stiff, what are your thoughts on the SF line? I jumped on the 49ers ML -120 early Monday anticipating it going up quickly. When it sat at SF-1 I started questing the play, wondering if I got sucked in to a square bet. I am now having second thoughts and just bought it back by playing Carolina at a pk until I can get a better feel. I was originally leaning SF, who imo is the better team. But my thinking now is if books anticipated a SF win, why not set this line at SF-3? All I'm hearing and seeing around the web/from public is pro SF talk and discussions of a 3rd game v Seattle and I'm seeing the public on SF at a 78% clip. It doesn't seem like too many people are taking Carolina seriously with their lack of "big names" besides Cam. This is a red flag to me and something that I have been able to capitalize on this year by spotting. Curious to get your thoughts as I hold your opinions on line setting/movement in high regards. Am I talking myself out of a play? Or is my concern justified and should Carolina pk be the play?

sorry for not really being able to respond sooner. it's been a busy weekend. I'll do my best to give my opinion quickly now if you're still looking for it.

I think your thinking on the line is correct. sf, in he public's eyes, is the best team here. so why not -3? especially with revenge, playoff (and super bowl) experience being on the side of the niners, plus getting Crabtree and Davis back who didn't play on the first meeting between these two.

all the talk I've seen on the net is already putting sf at Seattle next week, and was before Seattle even won yesterday, a game in which I felt the aints lost a lot more than Seattle won.

personally I believe the books and sharper players disagree, seeing the true value on the game lying with getting points at home with what amounts to the better D and probably the more consistent QB. as good as kaepernick can be at times, he can be just as bad at others, which will likely show more against a quality defense like Carolina.

sf has shown signs of really lackluster performance this year, especially against other playoff teams, and I believe they are very vulnerable here in what should amount to facing one of, if not the best defense in the league, in a really riled up playoff environment due to fans who aren't used to being here and should be really hyped.

bottom line is that I don't even see sf being the better team (equal, at best, with Carolina having the better D but maybe being a little behind in the offensive weapons category), and I definitely see the situation favoring Carolina.

gb, imho, even with Rodgers, was an average team this year (actually I thought they sucked ass without him on both sides of the ball), and that win last week for sf does nothing for me.

add in cross country travel and 1pm est game, and that, if nothing else, certainly isn't an advantage for sf either.

I see any points you can get with Carolina as the best chance of cashing, although I don't like it as much as either side play from yesterday.

hope that helps, and thanks for the kind words by the way. it really is appreciated and I am glad to know when my sharing of the time I put in helps someone else out :thumbs:

[Billy The Kid]

Glad to see we had similar thinking and I agree with all of your other points. Starting to see SF -1/-1.5 now so will prob wait it out until the last minute to make my call...I do have a few double result props pending so a tie at the end of the 1H wouldn't hurt. May jump in at the half then. Thanks. GL Today!

[Stifler's Mom]

was trying to wait for +2 myself, but not looking good...

went ahead and played it:

sf/car o41.5 -101

5 units

car +1 -105

3 units

car ml +103

1 unit

[Stifler's Mom]

sd +7.5 -102

5 units

would probably play sd a little bigger here but honestly I am a little concerned about the National Fixed League needing Manning vs Brady bowl 33 next week so they have something to hype all week, as if anyone cares at this point, plus I got a crap line.

[Reggie Hamlin]

Good luck Stif my ass still hurts from the massive kicking after that Carolina game Christ what an abortion that turned out to be on the other side in this one but that probally bodes well for you any suggestions on the total I played the over

[Stifler's Mom]

reg season ats/totals 127-114 +26.60
reg season dog ml's 36-69 -6.85
reg season parlays 3-17 +0.50
reg season overall 166-200 +20.25

playoffs ats/totals 7-4 +19.15
playoffs dog ml's 2-1 +1.52
playoffs parlays 2-1 +6.72
playoffs futures 0-4 -4.00
playoffs overall 11-10 +23.39

-----

afc championship:

den -4.5 -107

6 units

open future bet:

sea to win super bowl +265

3 units

[Stifler's Mom]

nfc championship:

sf +4 -107
sf/sea o40.5 -102

5 units each

sf ml +175

1 unit

[Stifler's Mom]

reg season ats/totals 127-114 +26.60
reg season dog ml's 36-69 -6.85
reg season parlays 3-17 +0.50
reg season overall 166-200 +20.25

playoffs ats 8-6 +14.70
playoffs dog ml's 2-2 +0.52
playoffs parlays 2-1 +6.72
playoffs futures 0-4 -4.00
playoffs overall 12-13 +17.94

-----

pending futures bet: sea to win sb +265

3 units

sea/den o47.5 -101

5 units

den tt o24.5 -110
7 pt teaser den +6/o40.5 -120
either team with 3 consecutive scores = yes -165
both teams with a fg of o33 yds = no -135

3 units each

[Stifler's Mom]

reg season ats 127-114 +26.60
reg season dog ml's 36-69 -6.85
reg season parlays 3-17 +0.50
reg season overall 166-200 +20.25

playoffs ats 9-8 +12.80
playoffs dog ml's 2-2 +0.52
playoffs parlays 2-1 +6.72
playoffs props 2-0 +6.00
playoffs futures 1-4 +3.95
playoffs overall 16-15 +29.99

nfl season overall 182-215 +50.24

-----

struggled quite a bit this season to stay ahead, but in the end I'm quite satisfied with the final results.

congrats to any true, long time Seattle fans (bandwagon jumpers not included lol) on your first Super Bowl win. enjoy.

hope to see everyone back next season :thumbs: