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Last week: 4-2, +7.2
YTD: 20-22-2, -14.6
Last week I was on Jacksonville by principle (West Coast coming to East Coast for early game), and that lost. I was on Tampa vs Atlanta and that lost by one point but was covering most of the game. I had a good week, with a scary Houston/KC game at the end. Lots of variance in the fourth quarters.
Still haven't hit my stride in the NFL. As I have said each week, I need to limit my plays, stop betting on bad teams! I generally like to fade the public, and really go with my instinct.
Looking at early games:
SF -14.5 vs JAX in London - just a lean here as that travel across the pond can mess with teams. I'll likely stay away, but mark to see if my instinct was right. Huge public bet here, but Jacksonville has two options at QB and both are bottom of league in tQBR. They will struggle to score points and SF shouldn't have a hard time with that defense.
DET -3 vs DAL - Dallas very dinged up with DeMarcus Ware on the sidelines, they'll have to blitz to get pressure on Stafford, that leaves Bush, Bell out of the backfield. Megatron should have a nice day vs Claiborne (or Carr for that matter), and I like the TEs to get a lot of action in that vacated middle of Dallas's defense. However, if Dallas is to get pressure (I don't think they will), this bet could be in trouble.
KC -9.5 vs CLE - Cleveland starting Jason Campbell here, and that does not bode well for them. He was passed over when Weeden was struggling the first time in the season. Not good for his confidence. Now they're forced to go into KC and play the league's stiffest defense. I would generally be all over KC here, but for some reason I think they struggle to cover the almost-DD number here. Rivalry games generally played close, and since I don't have a great grip on the game, I'll pass. Lean KC though.
BUF +11 at NOR - Definitely anti-public play here as they're pounding it at 76%. Buffalo banged up but can score points believe it or not. I just wonder how soon they'll have to abandon the running game. I think DD here is nice, but I wouldn't play BUF below 10. Spiller out, so the Bills will rely on Jackson to pound the ball between the tackles -right where NOR is the weakest. Saints one of the worst against the run. Gilmore and Byrd getting their stride on defense... Feeling on this one that BUF ML might be worth it.
MIA +7 at NEP - Another anti-public play here as Pats being bet to tune of 74%. Definitely don't believe in the Patriots this year, and I like Miami to keep it within a TD here.
WAS +13 at DEN. o58.5 - lots of angles here, RG3 coming into stride. Manning exploit Meriweather's position. Like the over much better here, siding with the public. Both defenses aren't great at all. Denver struggles to get to the QB.
ARI -2.5 vs ATL - Wow ATL, all of those injuries. Going with what clearly Vegas believes is a bad spot for the Falcons. Read the lines and says asking for Zona money here, but I still believe this the right side. Fading Hilton and Colin Cowherd here as they're both on Atlanta to cover the number.
GB -9.5 at MIN - only a lean here as I think the Vikings get beat up to the tune of 31-10 or so. However, home team has covered 13 of 14 ATS lately, and Ponder is definitely a wild-card this game. The guy seems resigned to just playing but not giving it his all (playing for another team next year). The Vikings fan base is demoralized from a team and management perspective. Most want to see the Vikes with a top-five draft pick. Hard to root for the team at this point with TB and JAX and MIN vying for the bottom of the league. Like GB here but not betting for/vs my team anymore.
Thoughts guys?
YTD: 20-22-2, -14.6
Last week I was on Jacksonville by principle (West Coast coming to East Coast for early game), and that lost. I was on Tampa vs Atlanta and that lost by one point but was covering most of the game. I had a good week, with a scary Houston/KC game at the end. Lots of variance in the fourth quarters.
Still haven't hit my stride in the NFL. As I have said each week, I need to limit my plays, stop betting on bad teams! I generally like to fade the public, and really go with my instinct.
Looking at early games:
SF -14.5 vs JAX in London - just a lean here as that travel across the pond can mess with teams. I'll likely stay away, but mark to see if my instinct was right. Huge public bet here, but Jacksonville has two options at QB and both are bottom of league in tQBR. They will struggle to score points and SF shouldn't have a hard time with that defense.
DET -3 vs DAL - Dallas very dinged up with DeMarcus Ware on the sidelines, they'll have to blitz to get pressure on Stafford, that leaves Bush, Bell out of the backfield. Megatron should have a nice day vs Claiborne (or Carr for that matter), and I like the TEs to get a lot of action in that vacated middle of Dallas's defense. However, if Dallas is to get pressure (I don't think they will), this bet could be in trouble.
KC -9.5 vs CLE - Cleveland starting Jason Campbell here, and that does not bode well for them. He was passed over when Weeden was struggling the first time in the season. Not good for his confidence. Now they're forced to go into KC and play the league's stiffest defense. I would generally be all over KC here, but for some reason I think they struggle to cover the almost-DD number here. Rivalry games generally played close, and since I don't have a great grip on the game, I'll pass. Lean KC though.
BUF +11 at NOR - Definitely anti-public play here as they're pounding it at 76%. Buffalo banged up but can score points believe it or not. I just wonder how soon they'll have to abandon the running game. I think DD here is nice, but I wouldn't play BUF below 10. Spiller out, so the Bills will rely on Jackson to pound the ball between the tackles -right where NOR is the weakest. Saints one of the worst against the run. Gilmore and Byrd getting their stride on defense... Feeling on this one that BUF ML might be worth it.
MIA +7 at NEP - Another anti-public play here as Pats being bet to tune of 74%. Definitely don't believe in the Patriots this year, and I like Miami to keep it within a TD here.
WAS +13 at DEN. o58.5 - lots of angles here, RG3 coming into stride. Manning exploit Meriweather's position. Like the over much better here, siding with the public. Both defenses aren't great at all. Denver struggles to get to the QB.
ARI -2.5 vs ATL - Wow ATL, all of those injuries. Going with what clearly Vegas believes is a bad spot for the Falcons. Read the lines and says asking for Zona money here, but I still believe this the right side. Fading Hilton and Colin Cowherd here as they're both on Atlanta to cover the number.
GB -9.5 at MIN - only a lean here as I think the Vikings get beat up to the tune of 31-10 or so. However, home team has covered 13 of 14 ATS lately, and Ponder is definitely a wild-card this game. The guy seems resigned to just playing but not giving it his all (playing for another team next year). The Vikings fan base is demoralized from a team and management perspective. Most want to see the Vikes with a top-five draft pick. Hard to root for the team at this point with TB and JAX and MIN vying for the bottom of the league. Like GB here but not betting for/vs my team anymore.
Thoughts guys?
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