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Good morning guys. What a start to the NFL season on Thursday night! At first I saw the Broncos, then late value with the Ravens, then couldn't make up my mind.
Current leans:
Buffalo Bills +10 vs New England Patriots - Home dogs week one typically do well, and laying DD on the road is rarely a good idea. Manuel looked well in the preseason, when healthy. The big story here I think is the lack of established Patriot weapons here. Kenbrell Thompkins and Zach Sudfield and Aaron Dobson have been highly touted this preseason, but how will they do vs the starters? We will see. Not much analysis, but blindly betting DD homedogs has been profitable enough to take this here.
New Orleans Saints/Atlanta Falcons o54 - Definitely a square pick here for sure, but both of these offenses have looked really well in the preseason. I am definitely high on Brees again this year with his coach back. The Falcons offense is primed and ready to go. They'll have an established and respectable running game this year with Steven Jackson, and that will undoubtedly open up the passing game.
Jacksonville Jaguars/Kansas City Chiefs o41 - Two pretty ugly offenses from a year ago, not much improved other than RBs from both teams staying healthy. I really like the draft acquisitions from both teams upgrading the offensive line. Cecil Shorts and Dwayne Bowe both have pretty good days.
Cleveland Browns -1 vs Miami Dolphins - Honestly, I am not sold on the Dolphins. Mike Wallace is a nice deep threat if Tannehill can get it going, but what about a run game? Do you like Daniel Thomas or Lamar Miller yet enough to bet them away from Miami? Cleveland here has a better offensive line, they'll be healthy again on the DL and I expect them to get after Tannehill.
Arizona Cardinals +4.5 at St. Louis Rams - This is a weird line, I think. Arizona has a competent QB at the helm, a semi-respectable running game in Mendenhall as long as he remains healthy. Receivers that can catch the ball if it gets there. The Rams have been shoring up their lines but do not yet have more than a couple of playmakers at their skill positions. I am one of a few who don't like Daryl Richardson or Iasiah Pead as I think they're too small, but effective in the open-field. I don't see either as ever being a three-down back. I think Arizona lights it up today.
Green Bay Packers +4.5 at San Francisco 49ers - Green Bay has had all season to worry about this read-option, and because of the ruling that defensive players can hit a read-option QB like a runner, that will allow GBs linebackers to lay a licking on Kaepernick. Now, the Niners have an awesome defense, and the Packers a great offense... where are the weaknesses? Last year would have been Green Bay's OL and running game. I am high on Eddie Lacy this year, but as we all know, Rodgers doesn't like to run the ball much. Green Bay's OL is still a mess this year with more injuries. San Fran loses a couple of weapons, but gains a few in Boldin and healthy Frank Gore.
Other thoughts:
TEN @ PIT: Boy PIT looked bad this preseason as well, but do you trust Jake Locker. Tennessee has some weapons and some ball-hawks on the defensive side. And seven is a big number. Slight lean: Tennessee +7
TB @ NYJ: All of the bad press on the Jets and they're still only 3.5 pt dogs. Chris Ivory or Bilal Powell at RB. Aging and just plain BAD defense here. This year is make or break for Josh Freeman, but Martin and that receiving corps should shred the Jets defense. Odd line, but lean TB or bet it if I can get under 3 online.
SEA @ CAR: Another weird game where you'd just want to take Seattle. Coming off an impressive year, Seattle only looks to improve, right? Maybe. Teams will figure out Russell Wilson, and with Percy Harvin out and Sidney Rice ailing, can they rely on their defense and RB to win it? With Carolina, will Cam Newton be a one-man show on offense. Has their talented LB corps the ability to stay healthy? Will CAR muster a running game this year? Lean CAR at home.
MIN @ DET: Minny looked awful in preseason, but this game will be decided in the trenches. Minnesota has some better offensive weapons than last year, and Kalil looked great in the preseason. Their defense is definitely questionable. Can they hold Megatron down? (no) Can their DL get to Stafford (yes). Lean MIN
OAK @ IND: I think Luck regresses a bit this year, and I'm certainly not willing to lay DD week one. IND brings in a healthy Ahmad Bradshaw, does a little work on their defensive line. Oakland gives the reigns to Terrelle Pryor, and though talented, will probably be a little deer-in-the-headlights this week. Oakland looking again to be one of the worst five teams in the league. Slight lean to IND
NYG @ DAL: All over Dallas here, but won't be betting the primetime game(s) likely this year. Giants really hurting with injuries at WR and RB, and aging DL and secondary. Love Dallas's offense this year if Murray and Austin can stay healthy (though capable backups). Dez Bryant has a good year, and Tony Romo quietly is top-three fantasy QB in NFC. Lean DAL
PHI @ WAS: I am excited about this game. Particularly with how Vick does in Chip Kelly's offense, and I think McCoy has a massive year as well. Same with RG3 and Garcon on WAS offense. NO LEAN
HOU @ SD: Is Houston the forgotten team in the AFC? Huge concerns with Foster staying healthy, Andre Johnson old and oft-injured, but boy they have a hawking defense. SD is pretty bad on both sides of the ball. I think Mathews actually stays healthy because he'll be spelled pretty often by Danny Woodhead, and Rivers has a good year, but boy that WR corps is thin. NO LEAN
Current leans:
Buffalo Bills +10 vs New England Patriots - Home dogs week one typically do well, and laying DD on the road is rarely a good idea. Manuel looked well in the preseason, when healthy. The big story here I think is the lack of established Patriot weapons here. Kenbrell Thompkins and Zach Sudfield and Aaron Dobson have been highly touted this preseason, but how will they do vs the starters? We will see. Not much analysis, but blindly betting DD homedogs has been profitable enough to take this here.
New Orleans Saints/Atlanta Falcons o54 - Definitely a square pick here for sure, but both of these offenses have looked really well in the preseason. I am definitely high on Brees again this year with his coach back. The Falcons offense is primed and ready to go. They'll have an established and respectable running game this year with Steven Jackson, and that will undoubtedly open up the passing game.
Jacksonville Jaguars/Kansas City Chiefs o41 - Two pretty ugly offenses from a year ago, not much improved other than RBs from both teams staying healthy. I really like the draft acquisitions from both teams upgrading the offensive line. Cecil Shorts and Dwayne Bowe both have pretty good days.
Cleveland Browns -1 vs Miami Dolphins - Honestly, I am not sold on the Dolphins. Mike Wallace is a nice deep threat if Tannehill can get it going, but what about a run game? Do you like Daniel Thomas or Lamar Miller yet enough to bet them away from Miami? Cleveland here has a better offensive line, they'll be healthy again on the DL and I expect them to get after Tannehill.
Arizona Cardinals +4.5 at St. Louis Rams - This is a weird line, I think. Arizona has a competent QB at the helm, a semi-respectable running game in Mendenhall as long as he remains healthy. Receivers that can catch the ball if it gets there. The Rams have been shoring up their lines but do not yet have more than a couple of playmakers at their skill positions. I am one of a few who don't like Daryl Richardson or Iasiah Pead as I think they're too small, but effective in the open-field. I don't see either as ever being a three-down back. I think Arizona lights it up today.
Green Bay Packers +4.5 at San Francisco 49ers - Green Bay has had all season to worry about this read-option, and because of the ruling that defensive players can hit a read-option QB like a runner, that will allow GBs linebackers to lay a licking on Kaepernick. Now, the Niners have an awesome defense, and the Packers a great offense... where are the weaknesses? Last year would have been Green Bay's OL and running game. I am high on Eddie Lacy this year, but as we all know, Rodgers doesn't like to run the ball much. Green Bay's OL is still a mess this year with more injuries. San Fran loses a couple of weapons, but gains a few in Boldin and healthy Frank Gore.
Other thoughts:
TEN @ PIT: Boy PIT looked bad this preseason as well, but do you trust Jake Locker. Tennessee has some weapons and some ball-hawks on the defensive side. And seven is a big number. Slight lean: Tennessee +7
TB @ NYJ: All of the bad press on the Jets and they're still only 3.5 pt dogs. Chris Ivory or Bilal Powell at RB. Aging and just plain BAD defense here. This year is make or break for Josh Freeman, but Martin and that receiving corps should shred the Jets defense. Odd line, but lean TB or bet it if I can get under 3 online.
SEA @ CAR: Another weird game where you'd just want to take Seattle. Coming off an impressive year, Seattle only looks to improve, right? Maybe. Teams will figure out Russell Wilson, and with Percy Harvin out and Sidney Rice ailing, can they rely on their defense and RB to win it? With Carolina, will Cam Newton be a one-man show on offense. Has their talented LB corps the ability to stay healthy? Will CAR muster a running game this year? Lean CAR at home.
MIN @ DET: Minny looked awful in preseason, but this game will be decided in the trenches. Minnesota has some better offensive weapons than last year, and Kalil looked great in the preseason. Their defense is definitely questionable. Can they hold Megatron down? (no) Can their DL get to Stafford (yes). Lean MIN
OAK @ IND: I think Luck regresses a bit this year, and I'm certainly not willing to lay DD week one. IND brings in a healthy Ahmad Bradshaw, does a little work on their defensive line. Oakland gives the reigns to Terrelle Pryor, and though talented, will probably be a little deer-in-the-headlights this week. Oakland looking again to be one of the worst five teams in the league. Slight lean to IND
NYG @ DAL: All over Dallas here, but won't be betting the primetime game(s) likely this year. Giants really hurting with injuries at WR and RB, and aging DL and secondary. Love Dallas's offense this year if Murray and Austin can stay healthy (though capable backups). Dez Bryant has a good year, and Tony Romo quietly is top-three fantasy QB in NFC. Lean DAL
PHI @ WAS: I am excited about this game. Particularly with how Vick does in Chip Kelly's offense, and I think McCoy has a massive year as well. Same with RG3 and Garcon on WAS offense. NO LEAN
HOU @ SD: Is Houston the forgotten team in the AFC? Huge concerns with Foster staying healthy, Andre Johnson old and oft-injured, but boy they have a hawking defense. SD is pretty bad on both sides of the ball. I think Mathews actually stays healthy because he'll be spelled pretty often by Danny Woodhead, and Rivers has a good year, but boy that WR corps is thin. NO LEAN
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