Week 1 discussion

[702Bronco]

For my first post here, I'd like to start some week 1 talk. A couple things I see heading into Sunday...

Seattle @ Carolina (+3.5) 1pm EST

In their 2012 meeting, Carolina's offense sputtered and dropped that game 16-12. With the success that Seattle had last season and the hype surrounding them going into 2013 I think they're being overvalued. Lets not forget Seattle has been jekyll and hyde on the road versus at home. Seattle went 3-5 on the road SU last year including a 50 point spanking of Buffalo in week 15. I think Carolina will get the run going early and often (ranked 23rd ranked run D in yards per attempt, Carolina ranked 9th in rushing in the same catagory).

Minnesota @ Detroit (-5) 1pm EST
When these teams met in Detroit last year Minnesota got the W 20-13. Minnesota was aided by 2 kick returns for touchdowns in that game. Getting this line at its open (-3) would have been optimal, but I still see value at 5. Detroit will have enough firepower to keep the pressure on a young secondary while Minnesota's aging front 7 will struggle to get pressure. The Harvin-less Vikings won't be keeping up with the Lions through the air either.

[akatdrake]

Even though on paper, the MIN@DET game is almost a wash - there is something about this matchup that just confuses me. Minnesota looked awful this preseason, with their only bright spots as fringe-roster bubble backups (Banyard and Line). Only one of those guys made the roster. On defense, yes they are aging, but you have two of the Vikes linemen in contract years: Jared Allen and Everson Griffen. I would expect the Vikings to get rid of Brian Robison in the offseason or trade him this season, extend Griffen and slap the Franchise tag on Allen if they don't agree longterm. Their linebackers looked bad, and their secondary really wasn't addressed from their atrocious year last year (even cut Antoine Winfield!)

Like I said, on paper it looks like a 28-10 type of game, but these two play differently on Sundays. When Minny has been the underdog, they've been able to create special teams TDs as in your example above, or turn the Lions over, etc.

With the line crossing over 3 and 4, in a typically close matchup between division rivals, I think the value is on Minnesota for sure.

Good luck!