My thoughts on the TITLE GAMES

[BUNK MORELAND]

At first glance I got to think ATL is the play.

I think those big receivers (Julio and Roddy) will give the SF defense a lot of problems.

Tony Gonzo too ..

4.5 ????

Wow ... .... Colin K is scary for sure. however SF has struggled in domes this year and lost to some teams they should of beat.

I'm not the biggest NFL guy when it comes to wagering , however it's going to be tough for me to NOT play ATL at home.. A #1 seed at home getting 4.5 ... I think that number will fall .....

One thing that I noticed last week with SF - Why was Frank Gore taking himself out of the game so much.. He would run the ball , walk back to the huddle, and tap himself on the head ... Is he hurt. Was he under the weather.



It will also be tough for me to go against TB and the pats.

Running game is in high gear, Brady is in high gear, and I don't think the GRONK loss will hurt them much..

Baltimore had to play a game and a half basically and I think that took a lot out of them..

I'm gonna say NE vs ATL shorty !


Like I said , i'm not the biggest NFL guy, more of a college hoops guy so I expect some people to call me a rum dum or a horses ass , that's fine.

just my opinion

[ATLfun]

Atlanta certainly has the receivers, but what about the defense? The Falcon defense is ranked 21st against the run and 23rd against the pass. Since the Niners can both run (Gore/Kaep) and Pass (Kaep/Vernon Davis/Crabtree), how is Atlanta going to stop them?

While the Niners defense is 4th against the run and 4th against the pass. And Atlanta's O-line is suspect at best. Heck, the starting left tackle (Sam Baker) was considered a bust until this year which is his contract year (go figure.)

Atlanta certainly has a puncher's chance much like Hagler, but I will bet on Sugar Ray everytime. :thumbs:

[BUNK MORELAND]

Here has been my style as of late

IT'S JUST ONE GAME ..

With all those stats mentioned and who has the better secondary, who has the better linebackers , who has the better offensive coordinator, would SF beat ATL 4 out of 7 ???

YES SIR , they probably would ..

I'm a spot player, I have a feel and I throw from the hip.

That's why I'm a HOOPS player and not really an NFL guy ..

Hoops is 5 on 5 with coaching ...

Trust me ATL I respect your opinion and after reading your post, I don't like ATL so much now.

But it's just one game....I'll put my money on the home dog getting 4.5 ... Anything over the 3 is gravy in this one, don't be surprised if that number falls to 3 (SF -120) before gametime.

I'm not an NFL guy, I rarely post NFL .. I just have a gut feeling that ATL will put together a good game plan and either win this game or lose by a couple

[ATLfun]

Nothing but love here Bunk. I find debating over sports picks an amusing contradiction. Even your critics are wrong 40% of the time or more. :sm:

I hate betting playoff football. But I still think this is a very strong play. Turnovers and penalties are always key, and especially so in playoff football. Atlanta is 4th best in the turnover ratio (+13) and the Falcons this year were the least penalized team in the NFL.

That bodes well for Atlanta. I am an Atlanta fan, I just believe in what I see. But if they win, then I look at the lost wagers as equal to buying four tickets to the game this Sunday. :sm:

For the record, SF is ranked 6th in turnovers with +9, and while the Falcons are the least penalized team in the NFL, SF is the 27th most penalized team. But in the last three games SF about the 10th most penalized team.

[BUNK MORELAND]

This is exactly why i come to this forum

To hash out the ball games. Let's keep this post going right up until game time.

Now, I know you said you are staying as far away from NE / BALT as you can without moving to Istanbul.. But don't you feel that Baltimore is got to be a bit drained physically and emotionally after that 5 quarter marathon in Denver of all places to have to play a playoff over time game.

Besides Gronk being out NE is very healthy and that running game looks scary good right now with Vereen entering the mix as a threat to score from anywhere on the field in both the run and the pass game.

Mr. Atlfun,

If somebody gave you 100 in cash money and said place this on either Baltimore +7 or NE -11 .. Which one would you choose?

[BuzzBomb]

great thread.

[ATLfun]

Why, I am avoiding the Patriots game? Well, I will start with the Patriots. When is a legend not so legendary? Remember, Kurt Warner and the Rams were the "greatest show on turf," the future of football. They were almost 2 touchdown favorites to the Patriots in the 2001 Super Bowl and lost.

The Patriots were considered losers much like Atlanta or San Diego. In their only Super Bowl appearance they received the ultimate beat down by the Chicago Bears. Belichick was a loser in Cleveland. Drew Bledsoe was the All-Pro and Brady was a 7th round scrub who won the starting position because he was Belichick's boy.

Today, the Patriots are considered a legendary team. But have they outkicked their coverage? Yes, they won three Super Bowls. But that was almost a decade ago ( '01,'03 and '04. But they have also lost their last two Super Bowls to the NY Giants. ('11,'07).

I feel that any playoff point spread represents represents about 2 points of nostalgia for what they used to be. Here is what they are today:

4th in Passing Offense
7th in Rushing Offense
29th in Pass Defense
9th in Rush Defense

[ATLfun]

To hash out the ball games. Let's keep this post going right up until game time.


If somebody gave you 100 in cash money and said place this on either Baltimore +7 or NE -11 .. Which one would you choose?

If I had to pick between those two options, I would go with Baltimore but can you really bet against Brady?

Even though Brady is 8-6 since his last Super Bowl win, I am not ready to take that chance. Brady is not that crafty veteran getting by with guile. He can still play at the highest levels .

But I just believe that Flacco is ready for prime time and the Baltimore defense has one more great effort in them. Baltimore beat them in the playoffs in '09 and lost by only three points last year in New England in the Conference Championship.

And I like the play this year by Baltimore's Paul Kruger. He is basically a pass rush specialist, and he had 2 1/2 sacks against the Colts in the playoffs. I have a feeling that he will have a good game.

Having said all of that, there is no way that I am betting on that game. Heck, even the under and the over look plausible.

[yomonte]

I'm the biggest Falcon fan this side of hell. My brother and I have discussed
Atl all year. My point has been they have been winning ugly and his point has been they are an 8-8 team but less penalties and turnovers brought them to #1 seed. They lost to a worfless Carolina team for crying out loud. Atl has to play better than they have all year to win this one and if they don't, I'll be rooting for SF in the SB.

[Reggie Hamlin]

I saw the haggler ray fight marvelous Marvin won IMO

[ATLfun]

I saw the haggler ray fight marvelous Marvin won IMO

Yeah, I was thinking Hearns and typed Hagler. Hearns always had a puncher's chance. People should really catch some of the Hearns/Hagler replays. Hagler was a top notch champion, and I have nothing but respect for him.

[Nelson Lewis]

Here's the way i see it for the Dirty Birds to have a chance...

Establish a run game!

Matty ICE Ryan cannot win this game by himself. In order for the Birds to have any chance, they're going to need a 100 yards rushing. In order to win the game, they're going to need 150 yards rushing. Thinking they can do either one of these is very suspect, considering the O line and the production of the backfield so far this year. However, I'm leaning that they can, and we will find out real quick from the opening possession if so, or at least they better. I don't want to see any screens in the 1st Qtr. If they go back early to trying to rely on this and not attempt to establish a run game, then they're hopes of winning are shot from the start. From the D side, you have to hope to get pressure on Kap without over rushing him. If he single checks and takes off, Atlanta is going to have to be able to be in place to stop it. If they can't, it could be a long night for the Dirty Bird Defense, especially if the O can't establish a little run game and some decently long drives to control some TOP. Once again, this happening is a little supsect. But, it can to say the least.

Now, we could talk San Fran, but why? They are the away favorite and all stats etc point to them clearly. It's easy to wager on SF, or even SF ML if you choose, which leads me to this...The spread of +4-4.5 scares me a little too as it lies in the dead zone.

As for a Total, If you think that the Dirty Birds can keep this game close, or even pull of the victory, then I would have to go against what looks to be an Over game, and lean Under as I stated before, in order for this to happen a run game would need to be established, helping to kill clock, and hopefully lowering the score. And of course, if you look for SF to run away with it with a game filled with big plays, then you go Over.

I personally have not played this game yet. Everything screams SF and Over, so I lean Atlanta and Under, possibly even ATL ML as I think if they cover, then they win SU. Either way you choose, we should be in for a great game to watch. Good luck to all and enjoy.

[Daws1089]

Why is the number 1 seed, a team who rarely loses at home now all of a sudden getting 4 pts at home? I guess that is the thing that I am having the most trouble coming to terms with. I think that speaks volumes about San Fran. Normally I would be he first guy lining up to play a home dog, believe that, especially in the playoffs, but I just cant get behind Atl here. San Fran has so many weapons on both sides of the ball, Atl's defense does not do anything great, but does limit penalties which I think keeps them in games. Someone said they lost to Carolina, well I think they could struggle with the SF offense which will look a lot like Carolina's. Kaepernick will be fast on that turf too. I think you have to take the over or nothing in this game. Atl should be able to exploit SF linebackers a bit with Tony G and the two stud Wrs and I definitely think SF puts up maybe 28-31 pts.


As far as the NE/BAL game when was the last time the public soo heavy against the patriots? Normally the pats are the public's darling team to get them all their money back. Believe me, I've bet against the pats many times and almost always pay for it. I would lean to taking the points again here. Baltimore always game plans well for new england. I would expect Balt to play keep away from Tom Brady as that is really the best way to limit their offense. I would actually lean towards under 51 in that game. Think we see some field goals and Baltimore chewing up clock to keep this in the low 40s.

I'm not dead set on anything but that is where I'm at.

[The Mailman]

The more I think about this game the more I see Atlanta having to respect the Niners run game and SF having success which will open up the passing game.

The thing that worries me though is that Kaepernick is young and inexperienced. It doesn't matter how good you are, there is no substitution for experience. With this being a road game, I would think the young QB may be vulnerable.

He sure seems like he's got charisma though.

My last thought is that Atlanta may have peaked too early. Seeing them give up all those points to Seattle in the second half is something to be concerned about.

And lastly, Matt Ryan sure has been good at home. I like the Niners though.

[BUNK MORELAND]

I'm the biggest Falcon fan this side of hell. My brother and I have discussed
Atl all year. My point has been they have been winning ugly and his point has been they are an 8-8 team but less penalties and turnovers brought them to #1 seed. They lost to a worfless Carolina team for crying out loud. Atl has to play better than they have all year to win this one and if they don't, I'll be rooting for SF in the SB.

Winning ugly will certainly catch up to .. and a discipline team will get you a few more wins that you probably should have.

I'm flip flopped I think .. I used to be as hard headed as it gets, but now I think I may be getting old.

We got some ATL people in this thread, guys who watch the Falcons week in and week out telling us that they feel SF will win ...