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Regular Season: 48-34-2 // 58.54% // +42.40 units
Wildcard playoffs:
Green Bay Packers -7.5 vs Minnesota Vikings: At first this line was a bit puzzling - topping out around 9.5/10 but the sharp money has been back and forth on this line. It has come out within the last day or so that Joe Webb has been taking most of the first-team snaps. Frazier has used this tactic a couple of times during his head-coaching tenure to trick the opposing coaches to game plan vs Joe Webb, but Twitter has been going nuts this morning. Reports out of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities has Ponder has a serious case of bursitis in his throwing elbow. This is the same elbow that has given him some serious trouble in college. He was listed as Questionable throughout the week but now signs are pointing to being downgraded even from then. Normally some questionable Vikings fans would have clammored for Joe Webb to be given the rock, but this year he hasn't had any playing time (no regular season snaps). If he had SOME game time (much less a road playoff game), we would think this would cause the Packers to stop the inside blitz and thus prevent Webb from getting outside. This would also free up AP to run up the middle... it's a completely different game plan vs the QB.
Now, with the Vikings playing well in the second half of the season, and especially Christian Ponder playing well and mostly mistake-free... there is no doubt in my mind that if he does play, he'll need that elbow drained, and with the temperatures in Green Bay at night, he will not be at 100 percent. In order to pull off a big upset here on the road, in playoffs (last road playoff win was in 2004 at Green Bay), Ponder would have to make a few more plays than he did last week. I don't see that happening.
A case for Green Bay, if you needed one, is that they'll have Randall Cobb healthy - another weapon to hurt a depleted Vikings secondary. If Antoine Winfield plays, he won't be at 100 percent, and he'll have that hand wrapped. That will severely limit his bump-and-run coverage and his ability to tackle. Without that a part of his gameplan, he's an undersized cornerback.
I'm going all-out here for the Packers, with 22 units to win 20 and cover the 7.5. I have other bets online that I won't post here (only post my local bets), but they do consist of 16 units and 10 units on other sites.
Cincinnati Bengals/Houston Texans o43 for four units - predicting a 24-21 Houston victory. I actually like both teams establishing the run early and lighting it up in the second half via the pass.
Wildcard playoffs:
Green Bay Packers -7.5 vs Minnesota Vikings: At first this line was a bit puzzling - topping out around 9.5/10 but the sharp money has been back and forth on this line. It has come out within the last day or so that Joe Webb has been taking most of the first-team snaps. Frazier has used this tactic a couple of times during his head-coaching tenure to trick the opposing coaches to game plan vs Joe Webb, but Twitter has been going nuts this morning. Reports out of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities has Ponder has a serious case of bursitis in his throwing elbow. This is the same elbow that has given him some serious trouble in college. He was listed as Questionable throughout the week but now signs are pointing to being downgraded even from then. Normally some questionable Vikings fans would have clammored for Joe Webb to be given the rock, but this year he hasn't had any playing time (no regular season snaps). If he had SOME game time (much less a road playoff game), we would think this would cause the Packers to stop the inside blitz and thus prevent Webb from getting outside. This would also free up AP to run up the middle... it's a completely different game plan vs the QB.
Now, with the Vikings playing well in the second half of the season, and especially Christian Ponder playing well and mostly mistake-free... there is no doubt in my mind that if he does play, he'll need that elbow drained, and with the temperatures in Green Bay at night, he will not be at 100 percent. In order to pull off a big upset here on the road, in playoffs (last road playoff win was in 2004 at Green Bay), Ponder would have to make a few more plays than he did last week. I don't see that happening.
A case for Green Bay, if you needed one, is that they'll have Randall Cobb healthy - another weapon to hurt a depleted Vikings secondary. If Antoine Winfield plays, he won't be at 100 percent, and he'll have that hand wrapped. That will severely limit his bump-and-run coverage and his ability to tackle. Without that a part of his gameplan, he's an undersized cornerback.
I'm going all-out here for the Packers, with 22 units to win 20 and cover the 7.5. I have other bets online that I won't post here (only post my local bets), but they do consist of 16 units and 10 units on other sites.
Cincinnati Bengals/Houston Texans o43 for four units - predicting a 24-21 Houston victory. I actually like both teams establishing the run early and lighting it up in the second half via the pass.
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