***5***

[Underdog88]

47-46 +47.36 units




Rams+2.5

Colts+7.5

Packers/Colts o24.5-105 1sth

Giants-8-110

Falcons-3-105

Seahawks+1.5+100

Steelers ml/Bears ML+121

Chargers+4-110

3 units each


6 pt pleaser

Redskins-1.5
Seahawks-3
Chargers-2

+1400

1 unit




6.5 pt pleaser

NYG-15
Broncos-1
Bills+4.5

+1800

half unit

[Underdog88]

Briefly touching on last week vs the Pats, I am an idiot for adding the under- first loss on a Bills related wager and it was a bad bet, plain and simple. Hopefully I kept a couple people off of Buffalo with my various rants across the forum, hit a pleaser with Pats in it as well. Situationally it was a horrid spot for Buffalo, but I think this game was on the coaching, Fitz's punk ass and the inability to adjust defensively. If anything Fitz has proven that he is not a consistently good qb. That's putting it mildly, I know. He can't throw a 25 yard out to the sidelines, he misses open targets, doesn't go through progressions fast enough, sets his wr up for failure. That pass he threw early in the fourth to Donald Jones is a good way to get a wr to not trust you. A pass that has zero chance of gaining yardage and sets him up to get destroyed. Spiller looked tentative and was doing a lot of running east to west, it was idiotic to have him in when they were inside the five when he fumbled. Fred's first down play off the screen on 3rd and 15 was spectacular.


Regarding the injury to Cordy, I think it really won't impact the team all that much. Hairston will jump right in there, after all, it's the position he was fighting for this preseason before getting forced to play the right side. He started LT 7 games last year, and played in 13 games. Urbik is also out, but Rinehart, who was @ rg for 12 games ly should be fine. Byrd also suffered a hip pointer, and I questioned how healthy he was with his ankle previous. Byrd made some big plays, forced two fumbles. I think he will be ok this week vs SF. This sounds strange as Brady threw for 340 and 3 tds, but Gilmore impressed me with some individual plays. I left the game thinking how hard I have been on him, now I think he will turn out to be a fine corner. Fred and Spiller both escaped the game without injury. so I am a happy camper.

The 49ers are a good team, but I do think this number is inflated based on what happened last week. Niners go into the Meadowlands in a beautiful situation vs a banged up Jets squad. Bills get pounded. Line should probably be 6.5-7. I know many would disagree with that but that's jmo. I think the Bills respond to Gailey calling out their lack of mental toughness. Offensively the Bills will be able to move the ball if they stick to the run game. Chandler could be big off play action if the run game is established. I think at this point the coaching staff needs to limit Fitz's ability to blow the game, and the way that happens is you run the ******* ball and get into short yardage situations. Nearly every big play the Bills offense has made this season has come from a short pass, run or screen. The Bills will need to control time of possession because, as evidenced in the Pats game, the line will wear down. I read that the Vikings fared well when in trips formations vs the Niners, so in passing situations I wouldn't be surprised to see some of that.

Defensively, they aren't facing the Patriots offense this week so there's that. I think SF is a well coached team with a bruising defense and good run game. Do I think Alex Smith will carve up the Bills secondary? No I do not. I have concerns defensively, namely the Dline vs the run & Vernon davis. It was laughable watching Scott trying to cover Gronk. He could have had 3tds if not for some great plays by Gilmore. I have said before the Bills LBs will always struggle with an athletic pass catching tight end, so don't be surprised if Davis goes for 130. The Bills just need to stop the run and force third & longs all day. Alex can hide behind a good run game but if it struggles, so will he. All in all I think this will be a closely played game and 10 points is too many to lay. I worry about the Bills ability to overcome adversity, but if they protect the ball, establish a run game and stick to it they will cover the line. I am holding out hope to grab a +10.5 @ one of my generous books, but they will be a play. To me the game total looks about right, and I am going to likely stay away. I don't trust Alex Smith, even with the additions in the passing game. I do think the Bills have a better than average chance at covering the team total 17.5 as well. It may end up in a parlay.

[Daws1089]

as always, take it to the man:beerbang: thanks for the bills notes too

[Underdog88]

thanks Daws:beerbang:


Rams+3+105 2ndh

Cards/Rams u18.5 2ndh

2 units each

[JoshKnows46]

Good Luck Underdog :beer2:

[Underdog88]

thanks JK :thumbs:

[Underdog88]

KC+4 2ndh

3 units

[Underdog88]

Fins/Cincy o21.5-105 2ndh

Falcons tt o13.5-115 2ndh

3 units each

[Underdog88]

Falcons-3 2ndh
NYG tt o10.5-175 2ndh
Fins+120 2ndh
KC tt o7.5-130 2ndh
+1078

half unit

[Underdog88]

big play

Packers/Colts o23 2ndh

6 units

[Underdog88]

Bears/Jaguars o39-108 2ndh

Broncos/patriots o50.5-107

Bills+11-110

3 units each

[Underdog88]

Vikings-6

3 units

[Underdog88]

Hawks/Panthers u20.5 2ndh

Bears/Jaguars u18.5 2ndh

Jaguars+3.5+100 2ndh

2 units each

[Underdog88]

Bills/49ers o21 2ndh

4 units


Broncos+3-120 2ndh

3 units

[Underdog88]

Bills tt o7.5-130 2ndh
Broncos tt o10.5-130 2ndh
Chargers/Saints o27 1sth

1.5 to win 7.72 units