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Welcome back to all!! Here's to a profitable season!
Early games:
Indianapolis Colts +10 at Chicago Bears: My initial thoughts questioned the Bears ability to cover double-digits. The Bears have a run-first offense, despite the acquisition of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey, aren't very talented on that side of the ball. When Mike Tice was in Minnesota he was very predictable and with Lovie Smith thrown in, I don't think we'll be seeing too many chances taken on offense here. Chicago's front seven is solid, but aging and their secondary is weak, particularily at safety. I like the Colts to run the ball with a rejuvenated Donald Brown and rookie Vick Ballard to set Andrew Luck for that play-action to attack the Chicago secondary. Defensively, you'll see Vontae Davis line up against Brandon Marshall. Both players are physically similar in their style. Look for their 3-4 defense to confuse the Bears OL with Mathis and Freeney coming from all angles.
New Orleans Saints -9 vs Washington Redskins: thoughts in the discussion thread, but briefly: I expect the Saints to be pissed off all season and run up the score. Unless I'm way off here, the players have been redeemed and will now want to make it up to their suspended coaches. Couple this with the rookie QB starting in a hostile dome in his first start. We've got a bit of a disaster brewing here.
Tennessee Titans +6.5 vs New England Patriots: this line totally confuses me, so I'm going to go with the points here despite almost 90% of the public on the Patriots and the line falling all the way to 4.5 and 4 in some areas. Is this just a wise-guy play where Bellicheck makes us feel stupid for over-analyzing? Perhaps. Couple of points: I do like the way Locker has made some strides late last season and this preseason, and I do like CJ2K to rebound this year for a 1400+ yard season. Who knows what we'll expect for the Patriots this year, except more of the same?
Houston Texans -11.5 vs Miami Dolphins: I hate laying DD chalk, especially early on the season, but i've been over this game in my mind, and I do not see a Miami cover here. Houston has the best running game in the league, and even though Arian Foster is questionable (I know, right?), Ben Tate is more than a capable backup, and even Justin Forsett has NFL starting experience. Andre Johnson is healthy, and the Dolphins traded their best CB in Vontae Davis to the Colts. Defensively, Houston has JJ Watt coming back from a great rookie season, adding Bradie James from the Cowboys. They've kept the best secondary in the league intact to give Ryan Tannehill fits.
Atlanta Falcons -1 at Kansas City Chiefs: Here's what I expect to be the second-most square line of the week, but one I see the public cashing. Many people expect Matt Ryan to take a big step this year along side Julio Jones. Offensively with Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner, Jacquizz Rodgers are some of the most explosive players at their position (okay, maybe Turner is a bit of a cog). Will this be the year they'll end up playing well away from home? I'm willing to bite here. The Chiefs will be running first and running second - they've listed both Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis as both starting RBs. They get some talented players back from injury, the aforementioned Charles, and notably Eric Barry and Tony Moeaki. I still believe Cassel needs to prove himself in this league as he's certainly not lived up to the huge contract signed a few years ago, but against one of the NFC's top teams, not this week...
All for four units.
Other leans:
Seattle: almost seems like a trap game, with Lynch questionable, and Wilson getting first start on the road. But Zona is awful and Wells is questionable too. Too close to call.
Buffalo: Jets done nothing in preseason on offense, but Buffalo back seven could cure that! Overs might be a play here.
Early games:
Indianapolis Colts +10 at Chicago Bears: My initial thoughts questioned the Bears ability to cover double-digits. The Bears have a run-first offense, despite the acquisition of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey, aren't very talented on that side of the ball. When Mike Tice was in Minnesota he was very predictable and with Lovie Smith thrown in, I don't think we'll be seeing too many chances taken on offense here. Chicago's front seven is solid, but aging and their secondary is weak, particularily at safety. I like the Colts to run the ball with a rejuvenated Donald Brown and rookie Vick Ballard to set Andrew Luck for that play-action to attack the Chicago secondary. Defensively, you'll see Vontae Davis line up against Brandon Marshall. Both players are physically similar in their style. Look for their 3-4 defense to confuse the Bears OL with Mathis and Freeney coming from all angles.
New Orleans Saints -9 vs Washington Redskins: thoughts in the discussion thread, but briefly: I expect the Saints to be pissed off all season and run up the score. Unless I'm way off here, the players have been redeemed and will now want to make it up to their suspended coaches. Couple this with the rookie QB starting in a hostile dome in his first start. We've got a bit of a disaster brewing here.
Tennessee Titans +6.5 vs New England Patriots: this line totally confuses me, so I'm going to go with the points here despite almost 90% of the public on the Patriots and the line falling all the way to 4.5 and 4 in some areas. Is this just a wise-guy play where Bellicheck makes us feel stupid for over-analyzing? Perhaps. Couple of points: I do like the way Locker has made some strides late last season and this preseason, and I do like CJ2K to rebound this year for a 1400+ yard season. Who knows what we'll expect for the Patriots this year, except more of the same?
Houston Texans -11.5 vs Miami Dolphins: I hate laying DD chalk, especially early on the season, but i've been over this game in my mind, and I do not see a Miami cover here. Houston has the best running game in the league, and even though Arian Foster is questionable (I know, right?), Ben Tate is more than a capable backup, and even Justin Forsett has NFL starting experience. Andre Johnson is healthy, and the Dolphins traded their best CB in Vontae Davis to the Colts. Defensively, Houston has JJ Watt coming back from a great rookie season, adding Bradie James from the Cowboys. They've kept the best secondary in the league intact to give Ryan Tannehill fits.
Atlanta Falcons -1 at Kansas City Chiefs: Here's what I expect to be the second-most square line of the week, but one I see the public cashing. Many people expect Matt Ryan to take a big step this year along side Julio Jones. Offensively with Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner, Jacquizz Rodgers are some of the most explosive players at their position (okay, maybe Turner is a bit of a cog). Will this be the year they'll end up playing well away from home? I'm willing to bite here. The Chiefs will be running first and running second - they've listed both Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis as both starting RBs. They get some talented players back from injury, the aforementioned Charles, and notably Eric Barry and Tony Moeaki. I still believe Cassel needs to prove himself in this league as he's certainly not lived up to the huge contract signed a few years ago, but against one of the NFC's top teams, not this week...
All for four units.
Other leans:
Seattle: almost seems like a trap game, with Lynch questionable, and Wilson getting first start on the road. But Zona is awful and Wells is questionable too. Too close to call.
Buffalo: Jets done nothing in preseason on offense, but Buffalo back seven could cure that! Overs might be a play here.
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