***NFL Opening Week Discussion***

[Underdog88]

tuesday and no discussion going yet?


Bills/Jets o41- High hopes for the Bills this season, but I still question them defensively... particularly LB & secondary. I've heard nothing but bad things about the Jets offensively, but they are always able to put up points on Buffalo....last 4 they put up 27, 28, 38, 38. The Bills offense is better than many would think. Freddie/Spiller were hidden most of the preseason, but I put them in the top tier of tandem rbs. Would say I only put Foster/Tate above them. They will be able to score.

[Billy The Kid]

Strong leans right now on every home dog with the exception of Cleveland at this point. (Tenn +6, KC +3, TB +3, ARZ +3, OAK +1)

Also have a very strong lean towards Pittsburgh +2. Peyton Manning has still yet to prove anything in a regular season game and after taking multiple hits. Steelers are still one of the top defensive units in the league and not exactly and ideal matchup for one's first full game in nearly two years. Pitt also with the revenge angle after getting knocked out of the playoffs last year.

[Stifler's Mom]

tuesday and no discussion going yet?


Bills/Jets o41- High hopes for the Bills this season, but I still question them defensively... particularly LB & secondary. I've heard nothing but bad things about the Jets offensively, but they are always able to put up points on Buffalo....last 4 they put up 27, 28, 38, 38. The Bills offense is better than many would think. Freddie/Spiller were hidden most of the preseason, but I put them in the top tier of tandem rbs. Would say I only put Foster/Tate above them. They will be able to score.

I can't believe this dropped to 39....well, actually I can I guess, since the first and foremost thing in people's minds is that the Jets couldn't score in the preseason. I like the over too, especially the more it drops, lol

[recovering77]

Was wondering what everyone's lean was on opening night. Think I'm leaning Dallas ML on that one.

At first glance this seems like a strange week 1. Usually the books give relatively soft lines the first week, typically giving crappy teams undue credit. I'm not seeing that this year with some -9.5 and and a -12 line already. I usually don't see this until like week 10 when teams start throwing in the towel.

Anyways, I actually look for a low scoring game with the Jets. Their defense should be enough to keep it really low most of the game. Rex will just run, run, run, and eventually squeak out a victory by 3 (push line) IMO. If you look at the team totals for wins, the jets are o/u 9, so this team is not supposed to be bad this year, despite how pitiful they've looked in the preseason.

Seeing some line movement on the Tenn/Pats game. One thing I never do is bet against the pats the first 3 games of the season. The public typically wins the first few weeks. If you watch ESPN, you'll see that the loser in the SB has lost their opener like 11 years in a row, so people have probably caught on. That combined with new englands suspect O-Line, giving a TD on the road vs. a capable QB sounds like a fair line.

I might bite on KC getting 3 at Arrowhead. I think their secondary is enough to hold Julio and Roddy in Check. Also like the return of Charles, Moeaki, and Eric Berry. Baldwin got in a lot of work as the #1 while Bowe was holding out, so I'm hoping to see some development from him this year.

I actually like Seattle giving the 2.5 at Arizona. A rookie QB giving points on the road seems like they want you to not believe in Wilson, but I do. This could be the "feel good" story this season that might give guys like Troy Smith and Terrel Prior a chance in this league.

I like Tampa at home in a pickem game. Didn't hear about Carolina doing much this offseason. Their defense is still poor, and Tampa went out and spent money. Could be an overhyped thing, but Tampa just seemed to upgrade everywhere. Possibly a last place to first scenario?

[Underdog88]

I can't believe this dropped to 39....well, actually I can I guess, since the first and foremost thing in people's minds is that the Jets couldn't score in the preseason. I like the over too, especially the more it drops, lol

I think the Bills d line will be much improved, but the LBs aren't covering Keller, & the secondary is still shaky. It's just a question of whether or not Sanchez can get the ball downfield. 39? I expect both teams to get over 20 honestly.

[JoshKnows46]

posted my thoughts in my thread, would probable be better served here...i just copyed and pasted it from another forum i post at, cus its alot.


sorry for the spelling errors and rambling, i just ran thru this real quick

Like the g-men too, better in the trenches o-line and d-line. if you can't block, then you can't run or pass, simple as that...... expect a relatively low socring game, but dallas defense still sucks, so wouldnt be surprised to see giants score alot, and dallas forced to pass, causing either fumbles by hits on romo or interceptions by romo causing short fields, plus lots of time stoppages when dallas has the ball, or quick scores in catch-up mode. either way the game goes, i see giants winning by atleast a TD....final score could be 24-17 or 34-20, depending on the flow of the game, and turnovers and what part of the field they happen, thats why i think a total play should be a no play, cus it could go either way, lean under, but you also gotta remember giants now have a homerun hitter at running back that can take it back on any play as giants try to milk clock, in david wilson....giants win by 7 or more in either senerio.
witten, romo's favorite target, and favorite in the redzone is also out, he rathers him over dez on the post route, as he usually only does the post route every once in a while on first down when in range, and everything across the middle after that.....but that is built in the line, i think that was the reason for the 1 point change, and i absolutly love getting giants under 4, which i believe is more of a key number than 3.
line coulda also went off becuase the majority are on giants, it might went back down cus the +4 got some people to go on dallas, and romo's performance in the last preseason game he played, he really showed off with out his main recievers, but they weren't playing giants d-line in a real game.
also went up*

St. louis is my favorite play of the week, expect them to win by double didgits against the lions. their secret weapn is my secret weapon in every fantasy league i'm in, he goes by GREG THE LEG, fisher loves his fg's, he doesn't care if its 4th and inches, he never goes for it, st.louis only needs to get to the forthy, greg makes 50 and 60 yarders like most kickers make extra points...detriots secondary is banged up, st. louis offense is improved, steven jackson in the best shape of his life, they'll have no problem scoring on detroit....st. louis got a better reciever corps in steve smith and brain quick, and they got Finnegan in the offseason who will be able to slow down calvin.

"Newly acquired Lions CB Drayton Florence was already getting first-team reps at Monday's practice.
Florence was just signed on Saturday. With Chris Houston (ankle) sidelined, he lined up at right corner opposite rookie Bill Bentley. Jacob Lacey and Kevin Barnes are also in the mix for snaps in this shaky secondary." chris houston and Louis Delmas are likely both out, lions have been bringing guys in and out, left and right to try to find anyone to put back there this weekend.

---------------------------------------------------------
new england game will be close only becuase of bill belichek, tenny will spread ne's defense out, and keep them off balance with chris johnson and jake locker running out the backfield, and all the weapons they have at wr, and te, just too much speed and mismatchs for that defense to hold down. tenny will shut ne's rushing attack down, then they'll be able to pin their ears back and come after brady and that sorry o-line, brady will make **** happen cus he's brady but he'll be coming from behind all game as long as locker manages the game, and doesn't make too many mistakes and force things, his guys will be open against a defense that hasnt meshed yet. also dont forget about the superbowl hang-over, no team has covered their first game after losing the superbowl the previous year, the last 10+ years i believe. titans pull off the upset by a fg at home.Patriots

"RG Brian Waters still has not reported to the team.
New England's opener is seven days away. The Pats have been incredibly patient with Waters -- a 35-year-old rumored to be contemplating retirement -- but at some point they're going to have to move on. In their third preseason game, the Patriots started Donald Thomas at right guard with Marcus Cannon at right tackle. Thomas was clearly one of the offensive line's weakest links."

last report, even if he shows up, he'll be out of shape, he's a lineman...."According to ESPN Boston, the situation remains "fluid" with Patriots RG Brian Waters.
Under contract for $1.4 million, Waters skipped the entire offseason program and camp, but the Patriots have kept his locker intact and yet to issue his No. 54 uniform. However, Waters reportedly wants to play closer to his Texas home. Right guard was a preseason trouble spot for the Pats, so they may soon be compelled to "enhance" Waters' salary in an effort to get him to report."

a few quick thoughts...lets win some money...

seattle defense against skelton, anuff said....wilson is for real, they might finally have a offense to go with that already great defense...this is a team you can bet early and often till the linesmakers and public figure it out.

bucs have improved more than any other team this offseason, doug martin is a mini ray rice, he can do it all, tampa mike with single coverage with vincent jackson will cause some damage, dallas clark at te, freeman will have alot of underneath options to throw to and a deep threat to keep defenses honest...over should be good here too...another team to bet on early and often till linemakers figure it out.

washington should score 21 on this saints defense easy, they shoulda beat them last year, and they scored 30 on them with a lesser talented group, rg3 will show off running and throwing, and couple deep passes to garcon for some quick scores, and new orleans doesnt exactly burn too much clock off...i went with the team total over the washington spread becuase it is a rookie qb making his first start in the superdome, but i wouldnt be surprised by a upset here, i'm obviously hoping against it cus thats my team...but they are banged up all over the defense with injures and suspenses, will be a very good defense once they get there guys back to 100%, but for the first few weeks it will be ugle on the defensive side with injures and learning a new sheme with young players.

buffalo was the hottest team last year the first 6 weeks till the injury bug took them apart and they crumbled, they are healthy and should be able to score 18.5 on the jets easily, buffalo has also improved there defense which should be good for a couple shanchez/tebow fumbles/interceptions, more opurtunitys to score, and possibly short field position.

pitt will air it out this year under haley in three wide sets with brown/wallace/and saunders and chris rainey playing the sproles type roll, and setting his team up with great position with the kick return punt return duties...don't be surprised to see him return one for a td this weekend, as he returned two back last preseason but both were called back on terrible calls by the refs..pitt with revenge angle from last years superbowl, and mannings arm still isnt at 100% streghth doesn't bold well against pitts defense. bet pitt overs till the linemakers and public figure it out.

texans on paper better than miami on defense and offense, top 3 best team, agianst probly the very worst this year, just expect what i see on paper to translate on the field...even when the game gets out of hand, you still have ben tate to deal with, not good for miami. wish i had more to say here, but i'm just betting on the better team, the more experienced team against a young team to do what they are supose to do.i also read somewhere that miami has never beatin the texans in their history, not sure how many times these teams have played before or how many times recently, but texans did beat them by 10 last year, and miami didn't score 10 of there 13 points till the 2nd half, and that was in maimi, this is in texas, in their home opener.
was texans 16-3 at halftime, brandon marshall scored miami's only td in the 2nd half, brandon marshall isnt around anymore.
foster also only had 10 carrys in that game before he aggravated his hamstring. another plus for the texans.

note- forgot to mention bucs also have one of the best o-lines and they added the best guard in football, nicks from the saints...this could be one of those worst to first type teams the south usually produces every year, i wouldn't bet on it, but i wouldnt be surprised either.

more on rams play, posted in the survivor thread when a few people where talking about taking detroit--------Your mistaking last years rams secondary with this years rams secondary, this rams secondary will be much improved, to go along with their much improved offense, amendola, steve smith, and brian quick, bradford has wrs to throw to now, and aquairing a kicker that can kick it further and more accurute than any kicker in the league....detriot still doesnt know who they are starting at cb and fs, this will be a very easy win for the rams.

"Cortland Finnegan - DB - Rams
Football Outsiders ranked Cortland Finnegan as the NFL's stingiest cornerback in coverage last season in terms of yards-per-attempt allowed.Finnegan's 4.3 YPA beat out Texans slot CB Brice McCain and Eagles CB Asante Samuel's 4.4 mark. 49ers rookie Chris Culliver ranked fourth per Football Outsiders' charting at 4.9. Pro Football Focus had similar numbers on Finnegan, although both stats and analysis websites ranked him much lower in 2010. The Rams obviously hope they'll get the good Finnegan for the next five years."

"The Rams official website confirms second-round CB Janoris Jenkins has a firm grasp on the starting job opposite Cortland Finnegan.
"Janoris Jenkins continues to impress out here," said assistant head coach Dave McGinnis. Jenkins has been one of the most consistent players in camp, regardless of position. The Rams pass defense should be much improved after their turn as fantasy star-makers in 2011."

"Appearing on SportsCenter Wednesday, ESPN's Adam Schefter singled out Rams second-round CB Janoris Jenkins as one of the most impressive rookies around NFL training camps."Through a week of training camp, Janoris Jenkins has flashed Pro Bowl potential," stated Schefter. "He's looked like a natural corner, like he can man that position. Has looked like a difference maker at the cornerback spot, like a future Pro Bowl player. The Rams are very excited about what they've seen from their young cornerback so far." If Jenkins keeps his head on straight, he could lock down left cornerback in St. Louis long term."

[Underdog88]

Your mistaking last years rams secondary with this years rams secondary, this rams secondary will be much improved, to go along with their much improved offense, amendola, steve smith, and brian quick, bradford has wrs to throw to now, and aquairing a kicker that can kick it further and more accurute than any kicker in the league....detriot still doesnt know who they are starting at cb and fs, this will be a very easy win for the rams.

Wait, did you really mean what I bolded? Rams & easy win in the same sentence? No doubt the rams will be much improved in the secondary, but do you really think they are shutting down the Lions passing attack? Fact of the matter is Calvin Johnson is the best wr on the planet, he will get open. Take him off the team and I still would take Burleson, Titus Young & Pettigrew over the Rams best 3 receivers.

Just breaking it down from last season , Stafford had 41 tds, Calvin had 1,000 more yards & 11 tds more than the Rams leading wr. Even a vast improvement from them offensively isn't bringing them to Detroit's level offensively. If the Lions put up a quick 14 & the Rams get predictable offensively, there could be trouble. I'm not sure I will be laying the chalk here (mostly because of the rb situation/secondary), but backing the Rams on the road leaves little to be desired. Lions or nothing for me there.

[Underdog88]

I like Tampa at home in a pickem game. Didn't hear about Carolina doing much this offseason. Their defense is still poor, and Tampa went out and spent money. Could be an overhyped thing, but Tampa just seemed to upgrade everywhere. Possibly a last place to first scenario?

I'm warming up to an over play here. TB is associated with defense, but they are starting two rookies on defense and moving Ronde Barber to fs. I would expect Can to try and test the secondary early. I think Freeman has a much better season this year. With a legit wr core and Clark plus a potentially solid rb tandem, they should be able to move the ball offensively. Line is set fairly high at 47, but I could see some big plays here

[JoshKnows46]

Wait, did you really mean what I bolded? Rams & easy win in the same sentence? No doubt the rams will be much improved in the secondary, but do you really think they are shutting down the Lions passing attack? Fact of the matter is Calvin Johnson is the best wr on the planet, he will get open. Take him off the team and I still would take Burleson, Titus Young & Pettigrew over the Rams best 3 receivers.

Just breaking it down from last season , Stafford had 41 tds, Calvin had 1,000 more yards & 11 tds more than the Rams leading wr. Even a vast improvement from them offensively isn't bringing them to Detroit's level offensively. If the Lions put up a quick 14 & the Rams get predictable offensively, there could be trouble. I'm not sure I will be laying the chalk here (mostly because of the rb situation/secondary), but backing the Rams on the road leaves little to be desired. Lions or nothing for me there.

No, they wont shut em down, but they will slow them down and out score them....lions currently have the worse secondary in the league, steven jackson in the best shape of his life, 5% body fat, bradford has wrs to throw to now, amendole, steve smith has had a great camp, the rookie brian quick, detriot will not be able to cover these guys with what they have back there in the secondary.....rams can run the ball, and stop detriots running game....cortlane finnagan while he can't stop calvin johnson, he can prevent the deep play, was the stingest cornerback in yards per play last year, he's good at holding up wrs at the line and frustrating them......they dont need to stop detriots passing game, they only need to slow them down, and make them take longer going down the field, forcing more passing attempts, and more oppurtunitys for mistakes...rams only need to get to the 40, to be guaranteed 3 points with greg the leg, thats huge, knowing you'll get atleast 3 points against this detriot defense, everytime you have the ball. I see st. louis stopping detriots offense and creating more turnovers than detriots defense. and i what i mean by a easy win, is i expect st. louis to be leading this entire game, and winning by 10. thinking about it, Maybe st. louis team total OVER might be the best play on the Board. i'm seeing a 37-27 final, but wouldn't be surprised if st. louis scored in the 40's, depending on the flow of the game.

st. louis team total only at 19.5, they'll have that covered by half, 2 tds, and 2 fgs...seriously?? has to be the best play on the board.

[JoshKnows46]

I'm warming up to an over play here. TB is associated with defense, but they are starting two rookies on defense and moving Ronde Barber to fs. I would expect Can to try and test the secondary early. I think Freeman has a much better season this year. With a legit wr core and Clark plus a potentially solid rb tandem, they should be able to move the ball offensively. Line is set fairly high at 47, but I could see some big plays here

both defenses are putrid, believe bucs were ranked 31st against the run last year, i don't think they are associated with defense too much anymore, most people have to know by now that they suck, i would think.

carolina scored 38 and 48 on the bucs last year, and these teams scored a total of
64 and 59 in last years games, and bucs are massively better on offense this year, when looking at it like that, 47 doesnt seem that high anymore, but it is the first game, maybe the offenses come out sloppy, still hard to see that over not hitting even with a slow start.

[Underdog88]

rams only need to get to the 40, to be guaranteed 3 points with greg the leg, thats huge, knowing you'll get atleast 3 points against this detriot defense, everytime you have the ball.

i'm seeing a 37-27 final, but wouldn't be surprised if st. louis scored in the 40's, depending on the flow of the game.

STL scored over 20 pts three times last season, and their highest scoring on the road last year was 16 points. Not sure why you think Bradford is about to turn into Kurt Warner all of a sudden.

[Billy The Kid]

rams only need to get to the 40, to be guaranteed 3 points with greg the leg, thats huge, knowing you'll get atleast 3 points against this detriot defense, everytime you have the ball. I see st. louis stopping detriots offense and creating more turnovers than detriots defense. and i what i mean by a easy win, is i expect st. louis to be leading this entire game, and winning by 10. thinking about it, Maybe st. louis team total OVER might be the best play on the Board. i'm seeing a 37-27 final, but wouldn't be surprised if st. louis scored in the 40's, depending on the flow of the game.

Expecting the Rams to score in 30's and potentially 40's seems a little high for a team that will be attempting for 3pts from the 40 yd line every time they have the ball wouldn't you say?

While I do think the Rams have some potential this season, they have yet to prove anything and must remain healthy to be weekly contenders. I just have a hard time seeing them upsetting this Detroit team barring a major injury to Stafford. Good luck with the play if you make one though!

[Billy The Kid]

UDog, what are your thoughts on the Bills? I have been eying this game for weeks and like the Bills to win outright but am surprised the line hasn't really budged with the amount of action on Buffalo right now. Is the Jets offensive woes over hyped? Buffalo came out of the gates last year firing on all cylinders and I know the team has high hopes for a playoff push and want to be taken seriously as a divisional contender so they must be viewing this game as a major statement. Meanwhile the Jets seem to be a lost cause on the offensive side of the ball. Are the books telling us something by holding the number at NYJ-3?

[JoshKnows46]

STL scored over 20 pts three times last season, and their highest scoring on the road last year was 16 points. Not sure why you think Bradford is about to turn into Kurt Warner all of a sudden.

udog, That was last year, bradford was hurt all year, and so were his wrs, rams where decemeted with injurys, their defense is actually pretty good, but the offense put them in bad spots all year, and 3 and outs....this is a diffrent offense, I believe bradford is a good qb, he just didn't have the time or weapons he has this year......they also weren't playing the lions secondary, with their fs and cb hurt...lions been bringing people in and out all this week and last just to find bodys to put out there.....bradford will carve them up, and steve jackson will milk the clock.

billy, i wasn't saying they would kick nothing but fg's, i didnt even say i expect them to have to kick a fg, i was just saying they have a pretty good chance at atleast 3 points if they get within the 40 with greg's range, thats only 40 yards of field from the 20 yard line, a good return and thats only 20-30 yards from points on the board, if anything that should intice you to at the very least take the 7 points.

[Underdog88]

UDog, what are your thoughts on the Bills? I have been eying this game for weeks and like the Bills to win outright but am surprised the line hasn't really budged with the amount of action on Buffalo right now. Is the Jets offensive woes over hyped? Buffalo came out of the gates last year firing on all cylinders and I know the team has high hopes for a playoff push and want to be taken seriously as a divisional contender so they must be viewing this game as a major statement. Meanwhile the Jets seem to be a lost cause on the offensive side of the ball. Are the books telling us something by holding the number at NYJ-3?

I think the Jets have purposely not shown a thing on offense, was just texting a buddy I think they are sandbagging big time. They still have Keller, and once again I think the Bills lbs will struggle with offensive tes. Shonn Green is an above average back, Hill has potential to be a solid wr. Was reading someone's thoughts on this game and they said the replacement refs could be to the Jets advantage. Makes sense, they could try and play a ground & pound type game. If that's the case it could fall under. I'm conflicted, but gun to my head I think Jets & over. The Bills will be improved this season, but it's still a divisional road game, vs a good defense.