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As we conclude the regular season and into a new year, I have decided to center gambling around a resolution for 2012. I've decided to not bet NCAAB, NHL, or NBA anymore. I don't really enjoy the sports and use them as action. I'll continue with NCAAF Bowls, NFL, and MMA, but nothing else! Feels good to try to challenge the degenerate in myself!
Carolina Panthers +8 at New Orleans for four units... time and time again this year, Carolina has shown they can put up points on the road. I expect Brees, Colston, Graham to have reduced roles despite Sean Payton saying otherwise. He's quoted as saying they'll keep their foot on the gas, but nonetheless, I think Chase Daniel will be playing the majority of the second half. And after going for it on Monday night, this is definitely a letdown game. The Saints do have a chance to lock up the number two seed - but the 49ers are playing at St. Louis... if that gets out of hand it will definitely play into this bet as well. That being said, this is purely a guess or a feeling. Nonetheless, the Panthers have done well this year holding opposing WRs at bay, both Lance Moore and Mark Ingram are out. Look for Cam Newton to have another great day on turf and keep it close, much like the Saints 30-27 victory in Charlotte - where they had 5 drives over 10 plays long! I don't expect that to happen this week.
Baltimore Ravens -3 at Cincinnati for four units... this is a game where I see a lot of people thinking, gee well Cincy has been doing well this year, definitely over-achieved, so why can't this continue as a home dog?? Here's my thinking: yes, Cincy has over-achieved, but they're still such a young and raw team. On the other hand, Baltimore knows this is a game is huge for seeding, knows they're a little beat-up (Boldin and Yanda doubtful), and they have to have their vets take care of business. Cedric Benson has had success vs the stout Baltimore defense, but that cannot continue. Terrell Suggs has 6.5 career sacks vs the Bengals, but only one vs Andrew Whitworth - and the Bengals are going to line him up vs Suggs today. Expect Suggs to be active early vs the left side of that line, and if he's not having success, to move across that 3-4 front. Those are just two cases where the Cincy backer could really make a case for their bet, but I'm going to go the other way. The Ravens haven't played well on the road (@ Seattle and @ Jacksonville obviously) and need to make up for those games to get a home-playoff game... in a season where they've gone 8-0 at home! They know this is a big game to advance in the playoffs and I expect the Ravens to bring it! Vegas having the Ravens as a three-pt favorite on the road despite their struggles vs a team that needs to win to get into the playoffs is telling for me.
Kansas City +3.5 at Denver for four units... this is a puzzling line. Denver favored more than a field goal? I think the books want to keep the Tebow magic going, but the last two weeks he's been exposed. Kansas City may not have much to play for in terms of playoffs but they have a lot of other reasons to: The veterans back Crennel as the man of the future in Kansas City - so they'll be playing for his job. Let's not forget Kyle Orton trying to solidify himself on this team, and in this league as a starting QB. Orton returns to Denver for a little revenge himself to show Denver's brass he's a better QB than Tebow. Enough motivation factor for the Chiefs outside of the bitter AFC West rivalry and I'll take the points.
I'll likely be on the Giants tomorrow as well. Why? ESPN comes out with stats about Romo being a great qb (via QB rating), but the bottom line is he doesn't win the big games. The defense is in shambles, Rob Ryan not doing well, Jason Garrett coaching for his job, etc... meanwhile the Giants expect to lose Coughlin at the end of the season, underachieved this year. You'd expect the Giants not to have the motivation, the Cowboys have it, but you better believe the Giants defensive line is ready to get through the Boys OL and to beat up Tony Romo. Throw in the fact that Eli does the unexpected - I like the Giants.
Good luck fellas!!!
Carolina Panthers +8 at New Orleans for four units... time and time again this year, Carolina has shown they can put up points on the road. I expect Brees, Colston, Graham to have reduced roles despite Sean Payton saying otherwise. He's quoted as saying they'll keep their foot on the gas, but nonetheless, I think Chase Daniel will be playing the majority of the second half. And after going for it on Monday night, this is definitely a letdown game. The Saints do have a chance to lock up the number two seed - but the 49ers are playing at St. Louis... if that gets out of hand it will definitely play into this bet as well. That being said, this is purely a guess or a feeling. Nonetheless, the Panthers have done well this year holding opposing WRs at bay, both Lance Moore and Mark Ingram are out. Look for Cam Newton to have another great day on turf and keep it close, much like the Saints 30-27 victory in Charlotte - where they had 5 drives over 10 plays long! I don't expect that to happen this week.
Baltimore Ravens -3 at Cincinnati for four units... this is a game where I see a lot of people thinking, gee well Cincy has been doing well this year, definitely over-achieved, so why can't this continue as a home dog?? Here's my thinking: yes, Cincy has over-achieved, but they're still such a young and raw team. On the other hand, Baltimore knows this is a game is huge for seeding, knows they're a little beat-up (Boldin and Yanda doubtful), and they have to have their vets take care of business. Cedric Benson has had success vs the stout Baltimore defense, but that cannot continue. Terrell Suggs has 6.5 career sacks vs the Bengals, but only one vs Andrew Whitworth - and the Bengals are going to line him up vs Suggs today. Expect Suggs to be active early vs the left side of that line, and if he's not having success, to move across that 3-4 front. Those are just two cases where the Cincy backer could really make a case for their bet, but I'm going to go the other way. The Ravens haven't played well on the road (@ Seattle and @ Jacksonville obviously) and need to make up for those games to get a home-playoff game... in a season where they've gone 8-0 at home! They know this is a big game to advance in the playoffs and I expect the Ravens to bring it! Vegas having the Ravens as a three-pt favorite on the road despite their struggles vs a team that needs to win to get into the playoffs is telling for me.
Kansas City +3.5 at Denver for four units... this is a puzzling line. Denver favored more than a field goal? I think the books want to keep the Tebow magic going, but the last two weeks he's been exposed. Kansas City may not have much to play for in terms of playoffs but they have a lot of other reasons to: The veterans back Crennel as the man of the future in Kansas City - so they'll be playing for his job. Let's not forget Kyle Orton trying to solidify himself on this team, and in this league as a starting QB. Orton returns to Denver for a little revenge himself to show Denver's brass he's a better QB than Tebow. Enough motivation factor for the Chiefs outside of the bitter AFC West rivalry and I'll take the points.
I'll likely be on the Giants tomorrow as well. Why? ESPN comes out with stats about Romo being a great qb (via QB rating), but the bottom line is he doesn't win the big games. The defense is in shambles, Rob Ryan not doing well, Jason Garrett coaching for his job, etc... meanwhile the Giants expect to lose Coughlin at the end of the season, underachieved this year. You'd expect the Giants not to have the motivation, the Cowboys have it, but you better believe the Giants defensive line is ready to get through the Boys OL and to beat up Tony Romo. Throw in the fact that Eli does the unexpected - I like the Giants.
Good luck fellas!!!
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