Week 13 Discussion

[Daws1089]

Let's be honest folks. Who is insane enough to lay the pts with the eagles on the road this thursday? I'm not overreacting to last game because I''ve documented their issues all season. The team is in shambles. The coaches fail to prepare every week. The players are constantly over matched and out of position. Reid refuses to use mccoy like a workhorse and relies on VY to throw the ball all over the place while VY has never been a passing qb. Reid refuses to adapt. Now they have to go on the road to one of the loudest stadiums on a short week, its just not advised to lay the points in any scenario here. If you disagree I would love to hear why in case I'm missing things.

[bluedevil12]

I agree it's very difficult to lay the points with Philly here...

Leaning towards
Tenn: They have something to play for. The Jets were running the ball well against Buffalo last week and CJ has momentum from last week.

NYJ: This is a playoff game for the Jets. Washington is coming off a win with nothing to play for. Brian Orakpo is the only Redskin who seems poised to win his matchup in this contest.

Atlanta: TJ Yates will face a good defense who will be stacking the box to stop the run.

Carolina/Tampa Over: Two terrible defenses.

Pitt: This is Cincy's 4th straight divisional game. All of them have been emotionally draining, coming down to the final minutes. I'll be impressed if the Bengals put together a full game coming off this tough stretch.

Den: Minnesota has no Peterson. Tebow wins somehow (even though I don't understand it and I'm positive that he's terrible).

Cleveland: Baltimore has had letdown games following both wins against Pittsburgh and the win over the Texans. Could a win over another quality opponent lead to another letdown? They have a long week, but I still like the points here.

Arizona: Winners of 3 of their last 4, coming home after 3 straight road games. I have a feeling they keep this close.

Giants: Coming off a blowout in a primetime spot, the Giants know the wheels are coming off. I think they will come out ready and keep it close. They seem like they are built to hang with the Packers (Strong front four who can generate pressure without sending extra players, a quarterback who can air it out).

That's what I have for now...

[Daws1089]

no way could i lay pts on the road with the jets. This team just isnt good. Mark Sanchez has taken steps backwards. The bills did everything they could to give the jets that game even after they did that the first matchup too. Skins or nothing for me.


Something has me leaning Lions +9. Saints off a big blowout win, everyone will remember it. Lions will be without Suh, but not sure it matters here.

[Daws1089]

Home dogs this week (not that they win anymore because the public rules), but I think a couple of these teams will win the games this week

Seahags +3
Redskins +3
Browns +6.5
Texans +1.5
Cardinals +4.5
Giants +7

[Underdog88]

Atlanta: TJ Yates will face a good defense who will be stacking the box to stop the run.

I think the Texans are live, I'm not willing to lay road chalk with a team that is 3-2 otr. vs a great rushing attack and solid defense. I would expect Houston to run the ball 45 times and wear down the Falcons. Before ppl start throwing out that ATL is #2 vs the run, take a look at the offenses they faced. TB, SEa, GB, Det, Indy all #22 or worse rushing offenses. They faced three good running team s in Chi, Philly and Carolina. They beat Philly by 4, and allowed 133 4.4 ypc. The Panthers ran for 139 (5.3 ypc).....both teams rushed for 2 tds vs atl. The Eagles and Panthers allowed 138 & 166 respectively to Atl, which is something I really don't see happening vs the Texans....

Everyone is pointing to Yates but bottom line the only thing they need from a qb is to be able to check down, set up screens and take the occasional shot downfield. Teams STILL won't be able to stack the box because one of the most dangerous wrs in the game is still on the field, not to mention Daniels. Foster was targeted 9x out of the backfield last game, would expect more of the same.... Tate can't do it in the passing game, but he should be able to rip off a couple runs to keep drives alive. Jacoby Jones could be big in the return game.... he had a big return that set Hous up at the Jax 26, ultimately leading to a td. Meanwhile the Falcons have been pretty shaky on special teams, allowing a 104 yd return, 34 yd return by Sherels, and a 49 yd return the week previous to titan Mariani. Could be a slug fest type game, Turner may get a big workload.

[BUNK MORELAND]

I think the Texans are live, I'm not willing to lay road chalk with a team that is 3-2 otr. vs a great rushing attack and solid defense. I would expect Houston to run the ball 45 times and wear down the Falcons. Before ppl start throwing out that ATL is #2 vs the run, take a look at the offenses they faced. TB, SEa, GB, Det, Indy all #22 or worse rushing offenses. They faced three good running team s in Chi, Philly and Carolina. They beat Philly by 4, and allowed 133 4.4 ypc. The Panthers ran for 139 (5.3 ypc).....both teams rushed for 2 tds vs atl. The Eagles and Panthers allowed 138 & 166 respectively to Atl, which is something I really don't see happening vs the Texans....

Everyone is pointing to Yates but bottom line the only thing they need from a qb is to be able to check down, set up screens and take the occasional shot downfield. Teams STILL won't be able to stack the box because one of the most dangerous wrs in the game is still on the field, not to mention Daniels. Foster was targeted 9x out of the backfield last game, would expect more of the same.... Tate can't do it in the passing game, but he should be able to rip off a couple runs to keep drives alive. Jacoby Jones could be big in the return game.... he had a big return that set Hous up at the Jax 26, ultimately leading to a td. Meanwhile the Falcons have been pretty shaky on special teams, allowing a 104 yd return, 34 yd return by Sherels, and a 49 yd return the week previous to titan Mariani. Could be a slug fest type game, Turner may get a big workload.

Atlanta is peaking at the right time. Roddy White has been dominant over the past two weeks. A couple of big plays could push this over.

Thinking about the over myself.
Lots of explosive players on the field. A defensive touchdown or a special teams td and this will go over the total IMO (38)

[akatdrake]

Some thoughts gathered on the Miami/Oakland game:

Lots of travel for Oakland... went to Minnesota, then back home, now all the way to the east for Miami and then have Green Bay next up. Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford both out again for Oakland, along with DMC. Miami's front seven is fairly stout vs the run and you better believe Oakland will be running Bush, so I think that grades out as a win for the Phins. Richard Seymour unlikely to play tomorrow as well. Finally the line hasn't moved off of -3 despite huge public on Raiders and Oakland ML. Think Miami is the right play here.

[akatdrake]

Minnesota/Denver:

Obviously Gerhart starting hurts as he's still young, not patient hitting the holes, and even if they do open up, I'm not sure he has the skills to get to the second level. He's primarily a down-hill runner, and any sweeps or draws completely take away that. Reminds me a lot of Leroy Hoard from years back, would rumble on Slams and Dives, but try anything fancy and you're screwed. Another huge loss is Michael Jenkins, he was a big-bodied receiver that often ran curls or comebacks and could use his body to shield smaller corners. In steps Greg Camarillo and he's not as big, not fast, has decent hands though - just not intimidating for Denver's secondary. Their only big-play threat of course is still Percy - and having missed practice on Friday for a non-migraine related illness, is questionable Sunday. If he goes, you better believe Champ Bailey is on him, and though aging, is still a force. The Von Miller injury hurts the Denver pass rush, but with Dumervil on Charlie Johnson or Phil Loadholt, I expect him to have a big day. On defense, you have the similar injuries from last week - the secondary is still decimated, and their veteran pickup Benny Sapp really bombed last week stepping in. Right now they'll likely start him or have him play nickel.

Defensively you have to account for Jared Allen, and with this running game for Denver, you definitely lose a lot of his strengths in rushing the passer. Though Allen is one of the better ends vs the run in the league, you definitely lose that threat on the line. The Vikings linebackers have struggled vs plodding runners like Tebow, and I think the combo with he and McGahee will be effective. I do expect the Bronco's offense to take a few more deep looks against a poor secondary, so Tebow's arm will be scrutinized more this game. I have the line as a -1/-1 from my book, so it'll most likely be a play, and a definite play if Harvin is out.

[akatdrake]

Overall I just feel Minnesota does not have any playmakers outside of Harvin on offense, and on defense their best playmaker will be somewhat neutralized. Denver has the type of physical offense to give the Vikings fits.

[Underdog88]

ty for the thoughts on that game akat... see a bit of Vikings wagers as a contrarian play, but I think Denver is just the better club right now. Von Miller's injury is the only thing keeping me from pulling the trigger...

[Underdog88]

Everyone loves ATL, and the Texans were the first play that jumped off the page at me. With the season I'm having, the Dirty Birds will roll but I'm stubborn...

[Underdog88]

Just popped TB. Not too much of a dropoff in qb play, prop better that Freeman sits. Panthers still a bad defense that Blount should roll over. Leaned over as well with it dropping....

[akatdrake]

Just a weird line for Houston and their third-string QB