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Missed the Thanksgiving games, but hope you all did well. Looking to piggy-back upon the 5-0 week last weekend..
Cleveland Browns +9 vs Cincinnati Bengals... earlier in the year the Browns were -7, what a HUGE swing here. But without Leon Hall and AJ Green, can you really see the Bengals being over a TD favorite? This is a very local line, I realize, but now as you see Cincy at -7... that's a huge number to cover in a divisional game.
Houston Texans -3.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars... another very local line here that has since moved past an important number to 6.5 and 7. Let's not kid ourselves here, the line didn't move just because of Andre Johnson. I fully expect Johnson to get a couple of looks early, but the majority of the ballgame for the Texans will be in Arian Foster's hands. The Jags will forget about Johnson and Leinart will PA deep for a big gain/score. Texans also get back Daniel Manning. Gabbert just needs more time and weapons. Houston 3-0-1 ATS vs divisonal foes this year.
Carolina Panthers -3.5 at Indianapolis Colts... the difference I see here is speed, bar none. I cannot get past what this Panther team does on the road - though their defense is atrocious, their offense shows up, plain and simple. Also, reading on the Colts this week shows me Caldwell is giving Painter another chance (despite a QB rating not over 60 in the last five games started), and has taken it upon himself to coach him up. Without Dallas Clark again as well. Colts really have only relied on the big play to score and they haven't had that in the last several games... and though Carolina's defense is beatable, I don't see it this week. The Colts are tanking are tanking in the locker room and in the public eye. Worst-ranked offense and defense.
New England Patriots -3 at Philadelphia Eagles... The one thing that put me over the top here is both DRC and Nmandi are both out. Add in Jeremy Maclin, and you really only have to keep DeSean Jackson in front of you. Patriots have the advantage in the passing game, but will need to stop the run to beat the Eagles. Yes, this isn't your original Pats team in the Brady dynasty style, but look at them to make a statement here vs the hated Eagles and Vince Young.
Atlanta Falcons -9.5 vs Minnesota Vikings... Yes, I know I know, when I'm a homer, I think my team is better than it is and worse than it is. Here's are a couple of thoughts:
The Vikings rush defense, while good through three quarters, has not shown up when they've needed it late in games. This year's club has lost six games by less than a TD, and often when they've needed to make a defensive stop, they've been unable to. The Falcons, last week without Julio Jones, relied on mismatches - Harry Douglas in the slot - and the no-huddle offense and the Falcons receivers do not match up well with the Minnesota secondary. Winfield has been shelved, Abdullah is out, Cook is out. Cedric Griffin is not the same player he was before the two knee injuries... Erin Henderson is likely out as well.
Another huge injury is the Anthony Herrera situation. Joe Berger will likely again get the start, and if you've noticed, both he and Phil Loadholt have struggled against speed rushers. Enter in a motivated Ray Edwards and John Abraham. Edwards only has a couple of sacks this year and because of off-season knee surgery, DC says he's been a step behind. Expect him to have a good game this week and disrupt things.
Adrian Peterson out means Toby Gerhart will split carries with Lorenzo Booker and Percy Harvin. Gerhart will get you a few yards at a time, but lacks that shiftiness you look for to get to the second level. Booker hasn't had much time in the backfield because of his fumbling problems. And Percy is injured again... no one can say he's not electric, and is probably the second best athlete on the team, but he's really only a gimmick player... if you don't have the offense outside of the tricks, end arounds, motion plays with Harvin, the defense will be expecting the unexpected and you lose the effect.
Positively: there's really not much, and I'm typically an optimist. It's looked like Ponder has been establishing a rapport with Kyle Rudolph, but both are a bit banged up. Speaking of Rudolph, he reminds me of a Rob Gronkowski... big bodied, great hands, good speed, and a nightmare to cover with a LB or S. If the Vikings can rebuild their OL next year (and have Shiancoe walk), he'll be a force in the NFC North.
All for four units... thinking about loading up on ATL though. We'll see.
Cleveland Browns +9 vs Cincinnati Bengals... earlier in the year the Browns were -7, what a HUGE swing here. But without Leon Hall and AJ Green, can you really see the Bengals being over a TD favorite? This is a very local line, I realize, but now as you see Cincy at -7... that's a huge number to cover in a divisional game.
Houston Texans -3.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars... another very local line here that has since moved past an important number to 6.5 and 7. Let's not kid ourselves here, the line didn't move just because of Andre Johnson. I fully expect Johnson to get a couple of looks early, but the majority of the ballgame for the Texans will be in Arian Foster's hands. The Jags will forget about Johnson and Leinart will PA deep for a big gain/score. Texans also get back Daniel Manning. Gabbert just needs more time and weapons. Houston 3-0-1 ATS vs divisonal foes this year.
Carolina Panthers -3.5 at Indianapolis Colts... the difference I see here is speed, bar none. I cannot get past what this Panther team does on the road - though their defense is atrocious, their offense shows up, plain and simple. Also, reading on the Colts this week shows me Caldwell is giving Painter another chance (despite a QB rating not over 60 in the last five games started), and has taken it upon himself to coach him up. Without Dallas Clark again as well. Colts really have only relied on the big play to score and they haven't had that in the last several games... and though Carolina's defense is beatable, I don't see it this week. The Colts are tanking are tanking in the locker room and in the public eye. Worst-ranked offense and defense.
New England Patriots -3 at Philadelphia Eagles... The one thing that put me over the top here is both DRC and Nmandi are both out. Add in Jeremy Maclin, and you really only have to keep DeSean Jackson in front of you. Patriots have the advantage in the passing game, but will need to stop the run to beat the Eagles. Yes, this isn't your original Pats team in the Brady dynasty style, but look at them to make a statement here vs the hated Eagles and Vince Young.
Atlanta Falcons -9.5 vs Minnesota Vikings... Yes, I know I know, when I'm a homer, I think my team is better than it is and worse than it is. Here's are a couple of thoughts:
The Vikings rush defense, while good through three quarters, has not shown up when they've needed it late in games. This year's club has lost six games by less than a TD, and often when they've needed to make a defensive stop, they've been unable to. The Falcons, last week without Julio Jones, relied on mismatches - Harry Douglas in the slot - and the no-huddle offense and the Falcons receivers do not match up well with the Minnesota secondary. Winfield has been shelved, Abdullah is out, Cook is out. Cedric Griffin is not the same player he was before the two knee injuries... Erin Henderson is likely out as well.
Another huge injury is the Anthony Herrera situation. Joe Berger will likely again get the start, and if you've noticed, both he and Phil Loadholt have struggled against speed rushers. Enter in a motivated Ray Edwards and John Abraham. Edwards only has a couple of sacks this year and because of off-season knee surgery, DC says he's been a step behind. Expect him to have a good game this week and disrupt things.
Adrian Peterson out means Toby Gerhart will split carries with Lorenzo Booker and Percy Harvin. Gerhart will get you a few yards at a time, but lacks that shiftiness you look for to get to the second level. Booker hasn't had much time in the backfield because of his fumbling problems. And Percy is injured again... no one can say he's not electric, and is probably the second best athlete on the team, but he's really only a gimmick player... if you don't have the offense outside of the tricks, end arounds, motion plays with Harvin, the defense will be expecting the unexpected and you lose the effect.
Positively: there's really not much, and I'm typically an optimist. It's looked like Ponder has been establishing a rapport with Kyle Rudolph, but both are a bit banged up. Speaking of Rudolph, he reminds me of a Rob Gronkowski... big bodied, great hands, good speed, and a nightmare to cover with a LB or S. If the Vikings can rebuild their OL next year (and have Shiancoe walk), he'll be a force in the NFC North.
All for four units... thinking about loading up on ATL though. We'll see.
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