***Udoggie's Week 11***

[Underdog88]

and the hits keep coming


Jets-6-107

4 units



Jets/Broncos o39

2 units



let's see if Tebow can actually run an offense vs a legit defense. I think this gets ugly....

[bluedevil12]

GL Udog!

[Underdog88]

Jets tt o10-120 2ndh

3 units

[Underdog88]

Coming off a solid CFBL day and ready to give it all back in the NFL :beerbang:



I like way too many games this week. Locking them in here and providing some reasoning below...



Bills/Dolphins o43-105

Vikings-110

Ravens-7+100

Browns-113

Seahawks+140

Chargers+180

Cardinals+10.5

4 units each



Bills+142

Lions tt o27

CJ total yds o105.5-110

2 units each




6 pt pleaser

Browns-7
Cardinals+4.5
Chargers-2

1 to win 14 units



Bills ml
Browns ml
Ravens-6.5
Vikings ml
Lions ml
Skins+7.5
Cardinals+10.5
Chargers+180
Eagles+6.5

.5 to win 181.42 units

[Underdog88]

Bills/Fins- No secret the Bills offense has regressed in the past couple weeks, but you have to look at the opponents played. Miami got the Chiefs coming off an ot win vs the Chargers, followed by a reeling Skins team. I give the Fins defense credit for holding down both of those offenses, but can you compare either to the Bills offense?

The Bills have played the Jets and Cowboys defense, and it suddenly became clear they were not a top tier team. However, I think they will be able to get the offense going vs the Fins.....Fitz was quoted as saying "Nobody expects anything from us again, we've got no pressure on us". Stevie is banged up, but with Donald Jones/Nelson becoming steady options in the passing game, I'm not sure it matters. As long as he is there to draw doubles I think Fitz will get some throwing lanes. Fred is playing like a top 3 rb this season, I see no reason why he would have a down day. With C Wood out for the season Levitre will move to center, with Hairston returning to play LT. IMO nothing is lost at tackle and Levitre has already shown he can fill in ol positions. Tough as Wood was having a solid season. Defensively the secondary once again showed they are soft. Now Wilson is likely to miss the game, leaving Scott back there to try and help keep McKelvin from getting roasted on every play. Leodis will be gone after this season imo, but the Bills are so thin they can't even bench him. Hopefully Aaron Williams will be solid in the future.


All in all I think the Bills will be able to move the ball, as will the Dolphins. Moore is showing he is capable of stretching the field, while Bess and Marshall present mismatches in the secondary. Fasano is coming on strong, so I'm hoping he will be good to go (for the purpose of the wager). IMO 27-20 type game, I like the Bills to get it done here as well.

[Underdog88]

Vikings- Minny of a blowout loss to the Pack, while the Raiders are off a huge win vs SD. IMO a bad spot here for Oakland even though they have the extra rest. 2nd of b2b road games in a letdown spot to boot? Aside from a situational edge, the Vikings have one of the best rbs on the planet going against one of the worst run defenses. AP has been held in check many a game this season, but IMO today he goes off. Prop was o105.5-125, if it wasn't juiced it would be on the card. The Vikings weakness is the pass defense, and I still don't trust Palmer enough (without McFadden) to get the job done on the road. I tend to think this could be low scoring....


Ravens- Told myself I wouldn't back these clowns again, but I can't leave this play alone. Bengals are a solid team and I think they have a great future, but without AJ I think this is a tough spot for them. Without Green to stretch the field I think it could be tough for Dalton. The Ravens d will likely game plan to take Gresham of the game. I think this could be a close game throughout, but I'm counting on the Ravens defense to take charge late and get them the DD victory. imo it could be a 20-10 type game, though I don't want to ghet involved in the total here at all.

[Stifler's Mom]

I pretty much agree with all of your wagers and reasoning.

My only question is, why so high on the Clowns as to take them for not only 4 units ml but also at -7 in a pleaser? I know the stinkiest looking plays are often the ones that pay, but without looking it up, the Clowns seem to only score about 13 pts a week, lol.

[BUNK MORELAND]

Go get em UD

Agree w/ you on the ravens.

This seems like a classic case of " PLAYING DOWN TO THE COMPETITION " .

They beat Pittsburgh twice. But lose to Sea and Jacksonville.:bang::nuts: ( Blown out in both basically ). This is a a big game for them. Heavy dose of Ray Rice today. :thumbs:

[BUNK MORELAND]

Go get em UD

Agree w/ you on the ravens.

This seems like a classic case of " PLAYING DOWN TO THE COMPETITION " .

They beat Pittsburgh twice. But lose to Sea and Jacksonville.:bang::nuts: ( Blown out in both basically ). This is a a big game for them. Heavy dose of Ray Rice today. :thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

lol nvm. Lang has a huge play on Jax. No further explanation needed :laughing:

[Underdog88]

I pretty much agree with all of your wagers and reasoning.

My only question is, why so high on the Clowns as to take them for not only 4 units ml but also at -7 in a pleaser? I know the stinkiest looking plays are often the ones that pay, but without looking it up, the Clowns seem to only score about 13 pts a week, lol.

I think this could be a game where Jax doesn't even get 10 pts. Indy gave them the ball on the 8 yard line last week, and the other Jax td drive was aided by Colts penalties. The way I see it if the Browns get over 17 pts (I think they do), there is also a good chance they cover the -7.


lol didn't even see Lang's picks but now I like it even more

[Underdog88]

This is a a big game for them. Heavy dose of Ray Rice today. :thumbs:

I hope so....I think the playcalling for the Ravens has really hurt them this season. IMO Rice should be getting heavy carries weekly, and they should use the 2 te set much more. I understand they want to stretch the field, but at the same time I think Flacco often forces the ball downfield. Cincy had had his number so far in his career, but I can't ignore the spot for Balty.


Added Lions tt over.

[Underdog88]

added CJ prop and I think I'm done with early game wagers. Falcons numbers vs the run look great but look at who they have played. Only top rbs they have faced have been Forte and McCoy, who both got over this number. No interest on a spread play here as I could see it going both ways, small lean to the Falcons to win but I don't trust them.


Lost writeups on Seattle, sd and Zona. Sseattle o-line is hurting but so are the Rams. Give me the better defense to get things done @ Stl. SF d and run game has kept them dominant so far, but laying dd in a divisional game is too much imo. Still looking at playing the Cards ML for a unit, trying to get the best line. The Bears defense to me still can be thrown on. IMO if there ever was a chance for Rivers to make a statement and turn things around, this would be it. Over probably worth a look too.

[hodown]

Agree very much on the Niners/Cards. Agree as well on SD/Chi as much as I hate to say it. Chicago has been in must win mode for the last three weeks and this definitely appears to be a letdown spot.

[joepa66]

GL today Underdogg!:thumbs: