NFL Week 10 Discussion

**Stifler's Mom** · 11-09-2011, 04:34 PM

Packers can't stop anyone. Amazing offense, but wow, their defense is like a wet paper bag. They remind me of the Colts (pre super bowl victory) who played zero D and just outscored everyone, and subsequently got **** on come playoff time by (name your team who played D back then, mainly NE or PIT). Had blowhard Rivers not thrown as many TD passes to GB defenders as he did SD receivers, SD woulda likely won that game outright last week. Not sure the Viqueens are the team to load up on, but a smaller play may be in order.

First glance:

Jets -2 over NE with revenge. The more I watch them, the more I am realizing NE really isn't a very good team. Not even their offense is all that impressive anymore. And we all know their D is garbage. I've seen multiple people say already "no way NE/Brady lose 3 straight".....yet they're dogged?? Dare I say the Jets have come around? I was impressed with their D last week vs BUF, even though I think their first 2 TD's were a result of a horrible no call against Plaxico and then a horrible call on BUF (both pass interferences) by the refs, and the snowball rolled down on the hill from there. In any case, they were the better team that day and probably would have won anyway, but just my 2 cents on that. They should push around NE, and it doesn't look like Brady will be bailing them out with the offense anytime soon.

SF over NYG. SF is for real, and Eli the turnover machine shows up this week, i think. Lots of public respect for beating NE, but still getting a +3.5? Seems maybe the oddsmakers are less impressed.

Bungles + over PIT, up to +3.5 now, and wrong fave, imho. I haven't thought much of PIT all year, but Joe P LOVES them. It will bite them in the ass, eventually, imho....quite possibly starting here vs the Bungholes. PIT's wins were all over cupcakes, with the exception of NE, and that win is looking less and less impressive as time goes on as well.

I said 2 weeks ago, laying pts with CAR is long term suicide, and I still believe that to be true.

STL/CLE :laughing:

JAX/INDY :laughing:

**Underdog88** · 11-09-2011, 04:36 PM

As I said a couple weeks ago, I knew the Kyle Williams injury was a season ender... huge blow to the run defense, Dareus will be the anchor for the rest of the season. No doubt he has shown progression but who knows how consistent he will be. The Bills run defense is spotty at best. McKelvin & Florence are liabilities in the secondary, but Byrd, Wilson and McGee are solid. I think they struggle trying to cover Witten. Said it time and time again a good TE really exposes the lbs for Buffalo. that being said I think the Boys defense is a sham. Look at the good offenses they faced...

Eagles shredded them, Vick had a near perfect qb rating. Mccoy has 185 on the ground. Brady threw 2 picks but NE still managed over 100 yards. The Lions took over the fourth q. vs them. The Bills offense needs to get on track, and I think they can vs the Boys. Good weather fast track big play potential is through the roof imo. Leaning towards the Bills tt over. Stevie Johnson may have a huge day. Fred all purpose yards prop could be a good wager.

**Underdog88** · 11-09-2011, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom

SF over NYG. SF is for real, and Eli the turnover machine shows up this week, i think. Lots of public respect for beating NE, but still getting a +3.5? Seems maybe the oddsmakers are less impressed.

That is the one game where I leaned dog, full well knowing I could get bad Eli. I just think Tuck's return gave the defense some serious swagger. Alex Smith is being carried by an unbelievable line, rb and great D. I just think this could be a come down to earth type game for SF. Definitely not the best of spots for the Giants though... regarding the line I think SF by record alone HAS to be favored by more than the usual -3 for hf advantage- this line could easily be -4.5.

**Underdog88** · 11-09-2011, 04:43 PM

I just think SF hasn't played a legit defensive front since they played Cincy in week 3, winning 13-8.

**Underdog88** · 11-09-2011, 10:16 PM

One thing keeping me away from the Bills over is the kicking game....Raynor missed two fgs in the last week of preseason and got cut from Dallas in favor of Bailey.

**hodown** · 11-09-2011, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom

Bungles + over PIT, up to +3.5 now, and wrong fave, imho. I haven't thought much of PIT all year, but Joe P LOVES them. It will bite them in the ass, eventually, imho....quite possibly starting here vs the Bungholes. PIT's wins were all over cupcakes, with the exception of NE, and that win is looking less and less impressive as time goes on as well.
:

It's not as if Cinci has run through Murderer's Row either. One quality win against Buffalo at home in a good spot, a decent come from behind win @ Tenn, and then a bunch of crap. When I look at this game I see a semi-playoff atmosphere, but a game Pitt needs a little more. A loss here and they're 6-4 and just as important 0-3 in the division. Pitt can kiss the division goodbye and enter into a dogfight just to make a playoff spot. Perhaps Pitt just isn't a playoff team this year, but they should be plenty motivated coming off a tough home loss. Couple that with Cinci entering in off two road wins with the most recent a fourth quarter come from behind. Pitt has the better offense statistically and a defense equal to that of Cinci. Main advantage to Cinci is they have home field. Not enough in my eyes to back them. Lastly but not least, in a playoff-like game I'd rather be on Ben than Dalton. Of course Joe Pub would be as well and I agree the wrong team is favored, and it may be a good game to stay away from, especially if there's a hook.

Just my UN-professional two cents on that...

At first glance I like a lot of faves this week, and I think this is the first week where we'll see some teams entering semi-desperation mode. falling to 5-4 is not a good thing and there are several games involving teams that are facing that obstacle.

Chicago is essentially in must-win mode for the third straight week b/c losing to Detroit effectively puts them 3 back of them. Detroit coming off bye and will be without Best who gashed them on the MNF game.

TB in absolute must-win mode to remain in the hunt for their division. Houston has coasted the last few games but does get Johnson back I believe. That being said I still think TB is the best dog on the board. They are physical and play good defense and Kubiak is 1-20 in his tenure when on the road against teams who end up above .500. In my eyes TB is an 8-8 9-7 type team so I think this is a great play to take points and go ML.

Definitely like SD in an elimination game tomorrow night, Oakland looks like a sinking ship with no help in sight. Hopefully Pick-Six Rivers can keep that to a minimum this week.

Can't say I care for the NYG, even though I haven't gotten a good read on them all season. They seem to win as Dogs and lose as Faves. That being said, I've heard twice this week on media outlets how great a season Manning is having and how he's moved into the next "echelon" of QB's. That's fade material if I've ever heard it.

Even though NYJ coming off a big road win and Pats coming off a bad home loss, I still think NYJ is the play. They seem to be hitting their stride quite nicely the last few weeks and now is the time for them to seize control of the division. Pats can't go vertical, can't run, and can't play defense. How can you back that??

Panthers ATS may not be smart but I felt fortunate in getting a ML win from the Vikes a few weeks back. Newton looks good, and I'm not sure how much life Tenn has in them. It's a no-play for me.

Balt is poise to move down to -6.5, as if the public isn't already all over them. Seattle is another jekyll and hyde team that are in a good spot here. As of now I'm staying far away from it but perhaps you guys have a lean there. Buf/Dal and NO/Atl also with big games this week. I lean home teams in both spots...

Thoughts...

**Daws1089** · 11-09-2011, 10:42 PM

i couldn't agree more guys. Regarding the Pats.. its clear they have no one capable of stretching the field, Everything is dink and dunk and Brady is even looking a little skittish in the pocket. Their days are over.

On an unrelated note. The eagles are just not a good team. Do not let them fool you. No leadership, soft defense. Vick has been awful imo. Not overreacting, just pretty sure this is a 7-9 or 6-10 team.

**hodown** · 11-09-2011, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by Daws1089

On an unrelated note. The eagles are just not a good team. Do not let them fool you. No leadership, soft defense. Vick has been awful imo. Not overreacting, just pretty sure this is a 7-9 or 6-10 team.

You know your team better than I, but the Bears have always been tough on Vick, even when he was in ATL. He's just not patient enough to take what they give him (or force him to take), and they forced him to stay in the pocket. Philly still has some life left in them.

**Daws1089** · 11-09-2011, 11:04 PM

the eagles always struggle with the bears. I don't think they've beaten them since they won at chicago in the playoffs with donovan. Theres just something missing from this team. Along with the upcoming schedule I don't see how this ends well. After AZ they have NYG, NE, @SEA on a thursday ,NYJ, it is not very easy at all.

About BUFF, I just don't really like how they are playing right now. Kinda feel like they may fall back down to earth and be the bills we are used to. The defense really concerns me. I don't think they are winning on sunday.

**dankretnuh** · 11-10-2011, 02:10 PM

Steelers vs Bengals thoughts

Bengals arnt good. There wins have all come from...losing teams. They played teams with hardly any or just a one sided offense. Colts, seahawks, titans and browns and averaged those wins by about 7 points? 2nd in rush def huh? well i dont know if there are any great RB on those teams not to mention QB problems for uh all of those teams. Only reason why they did beat the Bills was because of horrible horrible calls from the refs ( i belive cincy was at home ). Cincy played good against the 49ers? Yea so did the 3 win Redskins only losing by 3 more points than what cincy did. To me...this rookie QB has his hands full. Steelers play to fast pace for the bengals. Picking the bengals with just 3 points? Sounds like an empty grab bag with no reward in it. Also...let me know when the Patriots High octaine Offense was held to only 17 points:smclap:. Steelers -3 all day.

**recovering77** · 11-12-2011, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom

SF over NYG. SF is for real, and Eli the turnover machine shows up this week, i think. Lots of public respect for beating NE, but still getting a +3.5? Seems maybe the oddsmakers are less impressed.

IMO, the SF line is exactly where it should be. Two teams with similar records. SF gives the hook because an east coast team is going west, and injuries to Bradshow (out) and Nicks (prob playing). It doesn't hurt that SF is 7-0-1 ATS this year either.

Really liking Seattle as Baltimore usually plays down to their competition, and it's really tough to get up for this opponent after the Pitt game.

Rumor is the wind will be swirling in Chicago tomorrow. Favors the run game, where Detroit's is non-existent, though I think Chicago's is overrated. Forte isn't anything special. He's more of a pass catching RB due to their O-Line troubles.

I'm done betting on a terrible Indy team. Lean JAX here.

In Washington I think oddsmakers are overvaluing that blowout win from last week. The fact is that Miami can't afford to go up 2 games on the Andrew Luck sweepstakes with the way Indy is playing this year. take the crappy skins and the points, but they should win outright.

**Underdog88** · 11-13-2011, 12:41 AM

After further review, I am off the Bengals. I should say I won't be playing them to win. Still may be on the tt over... Still very wary of Pitt but this is a must win for them.

Leaning hard on

KC-pts

Bills/Boys over

TB+4

Ravens tt over 23.5

Saints

**akatdrake** · 11-13-2011, 05:26 AM

Talk me out of betting the Skins tomorrow. They're on my don't-bet-list, but what a wacky line... Miami giving points? Probably based on the KC butt-whooping, and Washington's terrible loss last week...

**Underdog88** · 11-13-2011, 08:13 AM

I don't know what to expect there akatdrake. After watching the Bills play the Skins I don't think I could bet them right now. That O-line is horrid... if Miami generates a pass rush they suddenly look like a good defense. Miami should have beat the Giants two weeks ago, and it seems as if Moore is starting to get comfortable. I think Miami wins, but I'm likely off this crapfest.

Someone tell me why I shouldn't throw a greasy unit on the Cardinals ML. I think it was off the board so long because the linesmakers were trying to figure how ridiculous they could set this line and still get Philly loot.

NFL Week 10 Discussion