***Week 8 Discussion***

[recovering77]

I think if you ever were going to take St. Louis, this would be the week.

New Orleans layed the smack down on Indy on the national spotlight, while the Rams laid an egg for the 6th game in a row. They are also started feely again at QB.

This is the largest line I've seen in a long time, since prob the undefeated NE team. Giving 14 pts is something that you do at home, not on the road. So if New Orleans was at home, this would be a -20 line, so sickening. A team rolling, vs. a team reeling. Public all over the saints. I'm on the Rams on this one.

Not really much to comment on with other games.

I know San Fran always dicks me when I finally believe in them, so I'll probably pass.


The most intriguing game is the SNF game. I believed all week long that Philly was the play, regardless of the line. Now the world knows about Reid's bye week record. The media is just trying to hype up the game saying the cowboys circled this game. Fact of the matter is Philly has been devalued and line would be much higher otherwise. I still can't pull the trigger, but may consider an over as that seems to be how Philly plays Dallas in Primetime.

[Daws1089]

i agree. i think the rams are worth a unit. saints coming off of a huge route now on the road..

[Stifler's Mom]

I wanted to comment on the Lionesses vs the fighting Tebow's.

Without Tebow, Denver very well may the 2nd worst team in the league (Rams). Actually even with him they are probably an even worse team, except for his strange ability to be able to seem to lead his team for late scores and bone people betting against him ATS. They got thoroughly spanked for 57 minutes by what I'd call the 3rd worst team, Miami, last week, but then Tebow and an onside kick erased that.

Meanwhile, Detroit has lost 2 straight after a 5-0 start, and has people doubting how good they really are. I don't think they're as good as they got credit for after that 5-0 start, but they're definitely better than Denver, no matter where the game is played. If anyone disagrees, I'd certainly be all ears as to why.

So, IMHO, with the 2 game slide for Detroit and the considerable public love for Tebow considered, the oddsmakers cannot make DET any higher of a fave here than -3, which is why they are just juicing it, rather than going to -3.5. It's sitting at DET -3 -125 at both of my books, and has been pretty steady there all week. For some strange reason people are more willing to lay -3 -125 than -3.5 -105 or something similar, and the books know this. I believe if they go to 3.5, they may fear Denver money pouring in.
The books are also showing 85 to 90% on DET, but i'm not buying that for even half a second. There's no way on God's green earth 9 of every 10 bets are coming in on DET today. I believe those similar percentages with NO/STL, but no freakin way that you can look high and low and can't find a soul to back the magical Tebow as a home dog. So why the potentially falsified number? And why if the public was so f'n in love with DET, wouldn't they move the line and INVITE Denver money at +3.5?

With the line example above, at the same time as most would rather lay -3 with hugh juice that probably won't come into play, someone like myself would much rather take +3 +105 than +3.5 -115, knowing that hook probably won't make a difference, therefore a win pays more/loss pays less....so it seems they may be trying to convince people who tend to look anti-public to take DEN?

[Stifler's Mom]

lmfao, line goes to 3.5 as i was typing that

[CBXU]

Was leaning the same way but I may settle on the over, as both teams offenses should be able to exploit both defensive weaknesses.

I'm thinking over as well, I can easily see it breaking 50 and nearing the 60s. Both defenses are bad and both offenses are solid.