NFL Week 7 Discussion

**easywinner** · 10-19-2011, 01:38 PM

the more the scariest the favorite are the better chance to cover the spread.so the lions & Dallas are my best bets this week ! g.l.

**thewickler** · 10-19-2011, 03:08 PM

I am really stumped this week. I agree with you on taking the points with KC other than that I feel that their are so many unknown variables this week.

Maybe I will just flip a coin:laughing:

**Reggie Hamlin** · 10-19-2011, 08:34 PM

greenbay -9 against Minny is a gift take the packers agianst a rookie qb GB playing like a well oiled machine minny with nothing to play for except the chance to draft luck next year IMO I think this is a mistake to not being favored by double digits I think by Sunday the line goes up past 10.

**MrDecipher** · 10-19-2011, 08:38 PM

This is that I think .

Chi/TB - nothing

Panthers -2.5 , I agree that is a play . Washington has been given respect based on nothing
really . Besides that opening day win (at home) vs the Giants they really
have not beaten anybody . They have lost every time they played contenders.
Carolina on the other hand have performed well vs good competition , though
sitting at 1-5 I think its a very respectable 1-5 .

Sd/NyJ - Hmmm : might just stay away from this one . Initially I thought SD but now kinda
changing my stand .

Sea/Cle : Just starting to try and figure out totals but this one stood out to me . If my
Calculations are correct this total should be 47 . I made a small play over 40.5
monday I believe but since I'm posting now it only seems right that I post the
current line so over 41.5 should be good value ..

Kc/Oak : I like KC here , I can't say they figured it out nor can I put too much emphasis
on their last two wins because the victories were vs crappy Colts and Vikings.
I think however that it will take Carson some time to get up to speed playing
and I can see him making some costly mistakes in this one . with Campbell I
think Oakland should have been -3 (no higher) Carson is a downgrade so I think
there is value +4.5 .

Pit/Az : I don't know why this line is so low . Pit has shown that their D is getting old and
have given up some yards this year but besides that nasty surprise they got @
baltimore in the season opener they have NOT given up lots of points . They are
only allowing 17 points per game and thats after I took out the 0 from seattle .
Arizona has lost to some really bad teams also , we shall see .. Pitt -4

Stl/Dallas : no play though I believe the Rams will play their hearts out in this one and
Dallas is very beatable .

GB/Minny : :sm: OH BOY ! I think the Vikings get creamed in this one , bad spot for the
rookie . very likely GB takes the lead and force the Vikings to throw more
than they'd like and force some turnovers . If that is not the case then they
run AP about 30 times which GB will be prepared for , say hello to 5290 AP.
GB by double digits I believe , honestly ..

**MrDecipher** · 10-19-2011, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by Reggie Hamlin

greenbay -9 against Minny is a gift take the packers agianst a rookie qb GB playing like a well oiled machine minny with nothing to play for except the chance to draft luck next year IMO I think this is a mistake to not being favored by double digits I think by Sunday the line goes up past 10.

INDEED ...

**Underdog88** · 10-20-2011, 10:37 PM

I think the Vikings cover. I'm scared to bet it

**akatdrake** · 10-20-2011, 11:18 PM

I don't see how the Vikings cover here, really. People betting the Vikes use the "played well in the preseason" and "played well in the fourth quarter last week" arguments. 1) Defenses are so very vanilla in the preseason, and he still had happy feet. If there was one thing about Ponder before the draft, it was that he was accurate and smart with the football. We can see the smarts when he decides to use his feet and/or throw the ball away. But he's a rookie so he'll be more apt to rely on his athleticism and he'll pull it down and run, and he isn't faster than GB's linebackers. His throws and reads haven't been all that accurate. Last week he had that nice throw for about 20 yards (to Berrian?), but that was across his body, and if you saw his arm-strength - it wasn't there. That's not something you can get away with often in the NFL. 2) Last week he was playing against a team up by 29 points. They played a soft cover-2 shell on all downs except for third. He was blitzed a few times, and most of them had to shuffle around and make plays on his feet. Good luck having Green Bay play any kind of Cover-2 against the Vikes. My guess is GB blitzes him, confuses the OL (which is not good), but leaves a spy in. I see something like last year's blowout.

One thing I like about Carson Palmer to the Raiders is that he's always been an accurate passer. He did well with a good running game in Cincy, and now he has a great running game in Oakland. This ups the value of Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore - as Palmer has had a decent deep ball. This will keep defenses honest. I won't be playing this week (I think), but it will be something to look at.

I'll be on Tebow. Hate or not, the guy knows how to win. He makes plays even though they look ugly at times. I lived down in Gainesville when he was with UF, and the guy is someone you rally around. He'll have his team winning.

**Badger** · 10-21-2011, 08:46 AM

Some thoughts on the GB-Vikqueens game ...

- Everyone is looking at the "Ponder's first start angle," but a HUGE factor I think that may be getting overlooked is the health of the Vikqueens O-line. Sullivan the center had a concussion last week, didn't he? Listed as questionable. Plus their right tackle Leadholt is nursing a really sore knee. That's Clay Mathews side of the pass rush. So either they are going to be running lots of max protection to help him (i.e. two-receiver routes), or they are going to throw him to the wolves. No matter how you slice it, an offense that is already having trouble scoring points is now adding a rookie QB with a dinged up O-line ... it could get U-G-L-Y.

- Even if the VikQueens score, how do the stop the Packers when they come out with their 4-wide sets? Safety Cedric Griffin is coming off back-to-back seasons of ACL surgery, on both knees, and if you don't think Rodgers and McCarthy will expose him and take advantage of him with the combo of Finley/Jennings down the middle I have some ocean-front property in Arizona to sell you.

- The only advantage the VikQueens have in this game is Jared Allen on the edge against the second-year tackle Newhouse for the Pack. Newhouse has done well in his three starts, but he had major troubles with a speed rusher (Von Miller) from Denver a few weeks ago, and although Miller has a ton of upside I don't thin he's in Allen's class yet. If they don't give Newhouse help, the best bet for Minny is that Allen knocks Rodgers out of the game.

- GB used to suck it in the Metrodump, but that was back in the Fav-re days. Rodgers is different, but I would expect a little trouble which might keep this game close for awhile.

- So far the Packers are saying the right things ... saying they are not looking past this game. They got burned a few years ago in Tampa when the Bucs were winless and starting Freeman for the first time. They lost that game, straight up as 13-point faves, and so far they are saying they learned a lesson from that game. We'll see.

Hope that helps any of you guys sitting on the fence. I never bet on my home team (Packers, if you couldn't tell from all of the VikQueens comments), I'm too biased to not remove the homerism in me. Good luck to you jakes ... and Go Pack!

**bluedevil12** · 10-21-2011, 10:38 AM

After reading through the comments and spending a couple more days thinking about it, I think GB and DEN are decent plays as well.

**Billy The Kid** · 10-21-2011, 12:20 PM

car -2.5 this line seems really square to me even with the panthers being 1-5. Panthers are laying under a fg at home in Beck's first start with all the o-line issues/injuries washington has and in what should be a bounce back game off a blowout divisional loss?!? Lot of public love for Carolina and yet the books still throw out the 2.5 number? Under seems like a play for me and leaning skins right now as well. Love to hear some other thoughts on washington...and if anyone else thinks this line reaks...Stif is usually all over these, love to hear your thoughts

**Details-Details** · 10-21-2011, 12:55 PM

Couple of what I think are important developments...

Olin Kruetz the Saints starting center has left the team

Jeff Faine the Bucs starting center is unlikely to play vs Bears

Just an angle I like to bet against team with problems at the center position

**Underdog88** · 10-21-2011, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by Billy The Kid

Love to hear some other thoughts on washington...and if anyone else thinks this line reaks

I'm Washington or no play here. Covering dog lines and covering as a fave (when you are expected to) are two different things. Washington still has by far a better defense than Carolina, even if Atogwe can't go. If Hall can just cover steve Smith I think the Skins will force Cam to make mistakes. Skins haven't allowed over 21 pts all season, and there was a little regression from the Panthers offense vs Atl. One thing that is apparent with the Panthers- they absolutely can't stop the power run game. I can't imagine Beck being worse than Rex, and if anything wash will come with a run heavy/short pass scheme to wear the Panthers down and make is easy for Beck. I don't like Cooley out, think the Skins lose offensive protection, but I still think Washington could be the right side. I really hate backing teams that can't stop the run.... would lean under too.

**Underdog88** · 10-21-2011, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by akatdrake

I don't see how the Vikings cover here, really. People betting the Vikes use the "played well in the preseason" and "played well in the fourth quarter last week" arguments..

IMO there isn't enough film on Ponder to make any type of conclusion about him. All I know is that McNabb is washed up, and looks like he could give a ****. Again a rookie qb means more running, maybe they will smarten up and give AP 35 carries. Looks like a game where he may want to put the team on his back. GB going into the bye week, they went on cruise control 2ndh of the Rams game, and could very well come out flat here. GB won on the road by 7, 10, and 9 pts. Seems like everyone is thinking they will just pound Minny but what's the motivation to do so right now? I do think that GB has a good defense, but they aren't in top form and really don't scare me. GB can't run the ball consistently, but yeah Radgers has the clear advantage in the passing game. I played a longshot pleaser with them in it, but may be on the Vikings ats

**Underdog88** · 10-21-2011, 05:36 PM

I can get Minny+11.5 right now @ betus. looks like they are trying to get ppl off GB teasers

NFL Week 7 Discussion

NFL Week 7 Discussion

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