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Didn’t post week 10. Had to regroup after that tough Giants loss (why are coaches going for 2 for no reason in the pros these days?). Probably would have been my best week of the season, but I didn’t post. I made a very large wager on the Saints +3.5 that cashed, and that’s all I was worried about.
Lots of fun games this week to dip my toes in.
Kansas City +2.5 at Buffalo. I haven’t bet the Chiefs once this entire season. Am I too late at 9-0? We’ll see. This Chiefs team doesn’t feel like a 10-0 team or a team that can run the table, but I like them to get to 10 this week. It's often the chic play to bet against the undefeated team the first time they have a pickem type line so you can look smart when they lose. I just don't think Buffalo has what it takes to end the streak.
This kinda reminds me of last year when Philly was rolling, and everyone took Buffalo that week to beat them. Philly pulled it off, but completely collapsed afterwards. Philly went 10-1, then fell off a cliff and lost to Tommy Cutletts.
We haven't had a late undefeated team since Pittsburgh who got to 11-0, and by the end they had nothing left.
I hope that's not the case with KC, because I am rooting for them to 3 peat. The undefeated talks could get louder after this week, but it's likely not going to happen. There will be plenty of opportunities for KC to lose before the end of the season. LA Chargers, at Cleveland, Houston, At Pittsburgh, At Denver.
This is another unusually large play for me, so I won't say how many units, but I like it.
Also note that the favorites have killed at it 4 PM the last couple of weeks. 4-0 last week (Arizona was favored until Thursday then became dogs over the weekend), 3-1 the week before. I expect some reversion here.
Philly -3 vs Washington. I dunno why I like Philly this week. I’ve been hyping up Washington winning the division all season, but this is a very fair line, if not too high for Philly. In the Giants game, Tyrone Tracey had his way gashing Washington’s defense. If the Giants had any semblance of a pass game, Washington woulda been in trouble that week. Like Philly to build a lead here and barely hang on at the end. (1 unit).
Pittsburgh +3 vs. Baltimore. Arguably the biggest rivalry in all of football. Will take the points most times in this matchup. Baltimore has a terrible defense. Pittsburgh should be able to make it a game. (1 unit)
Cleveland +1 at New Orleans. Saints were very lucky to get the win last week. Three missed field goals by Koo, and only 3 points in the second half. Atlanta’s defense is lower tier, that’s why I trusted Carr to get it done with 4th string wide receivers. Cleveland is the better team overall, even with Jameis. (1 unit)
LA Chargers -1.5 vs Cincy. I like the Chargers to keep rolling. That defense has been playing well all year, and the offense finally has some rhythm. Mcconkey is a solid every week contributor now. (2 units)
Chicago +6.5 vs. Green Bay. I don't want to run the new coach system into the ground. This is not your typical fired coach scenario, similar to earlier in the season. Chicago is 4-5 with a QB that looked good the first 6 games of the season (4-2 to start). Earlier in the year the Jets were favored after they fired their coach, and they have Rodgers, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner, and the system lost. Typically the team that fires their coach is a bad team like Carolina, Jacksonville, Washington, etc. Green Bay is also coming off a pretty rough game against Detroit. Green Bay is probably the right side here, but I'll go Bears for small. (2 units).
And I'll say in advance that I'm not taking Dallas after they fire McCarthy before the end of the season.
Edit: Another one I probably messed up putting it in too early. Green Bay is 10-0 SU and ATS against Chicago in their last 10. That's a trend you don't mess with. I've never seen that before.
Leans:
Houston/Dallas OVER 42. I lost my Dallas pick last week after telling myself I will not bet them again this season. I’ll stick to that. Though I think Dallas may have hit rock bottom against Philly last week. They should bounce back and put up 17-20 points, or they’ll continue to roll over and die and allow Houston to get 30+ on their own, then Trey Lance will throw two pick 6s because he's really that bad.
SF/Seattle OVER 49.5. I put this one in without checking, but I'll stick with it for a lean. I saw the total and it seemed way too high. I thought the last couple went under, but the last meeting hit 60. CMAC should be back this week, and so should DK Metcalf. Let's see if the Niners offense can hum again with their MVP back.
Edit: CMAC came back last week, so they had him against Tampa. They should have covered, but missed 3 field goals.
Primetime Games (3-3): Not counting this against the record unless I move it up.I went 3-0 last week unposted (Cincy, Houston, Mia) and I'm counting it for record keeping purposes.
Philly -3.5
LAC -1
DAL/HOU OVER 42
System Plays: (0-0), Half System Plays (1-1)
Half System Play was 1-0 last week. (Jacksonville)
TBD
2024
12-21 Plays, 2-1 Leans
2023
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans
2022
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans
2020
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Lots of fun games this week to dip my toes in.
Kansas City +2.5 at Buffalo. I haven’t bet the Chiefs once this entire season. Am I too late at 9-0? We’ll see. This Chiefs team doesn’t feel like a 10-0 team or a team that can run the table, but I like them to get to 10 this week. It's often the chic play to bet against the undefeated team the first time they have a pickem type line so you can look smart when they lose. I just don't think Buffalo has what it takes to end the streak.
This kinda reminds me of last year when Philly was rolling, and everyone took Buffalo that week to beat them. Philly pulled it off, but completely collapsed afterwards. Philly went 10-1, then fell off a cliff and lost to Tommy Cutletts.
We haven't had a late undefeated team since Pittsburgh who got to 11-0, and by the end they had nothing left.
I hope that's not the case with KC, because I am rooting for them to 3 peat. The undefeated talks could get louder after this week, but it's likely not going to happen. There will be plenty of opportunities for KC to lose before the end of the season. LA Chargers, at Cleveland, Houston, At Pittsburgh, At Denver.
This is another unusually large play for me, so I won't say how many units, but I like it.
Also note that the favorites have killed at it 4 PM the last couple of weeks. 4-0 last week (Arizona was favored until Thursday then became dogs over the weekend), 3-1 the week before. I expect some reversion here.
Philly -3 vs Washington. I dunno why I like Philly this week. I’ve been hyping up Washington winning the division all season, but this is a very fair line, if not too high for Philly. In the Giants game, Tyrone Tracey had his way gashing Washington’s defense. If the Giants had any semblance of a pass game, Washington woulda been in trouble that week. Like Philly to build a lead here and barely hang on at the end. (1 unit).
Pittsburgh +3 vs. Baltimore. Arguably the biggest rivalry in all of football. Will take the points most times in this matchup. Baltimore has a terrible defense. Pittsburgh should be able to make it a game. (1 unit)
Cleveland +1 at New Orleans. Saints were very lucky to get the win last week. Three missed field goals by Koo, and only 3 points in the second half. Atlanta’s defense is lower tier, that’s why I trusted Carr to get it done with 4th string wide receivers. Cleveland is the better team overall, even with Jameis. (1 unit)
LA Chargers -1.5 vs Cincy. I like the Chargers to keep rolling. That defense has been playing well all year, and the offense finally has some rhythm. Mcconkey is a solid every week contributor now. (2 units)
Chicago +6.5 vs. Green Bay. I don't want to run the new coach system into the ground. This is not your typical fired coach scenario, similar to earlier in the season. Chicago is 4-5 with a QB that looked good the first 6 games of the season (4-2 to start). Earlier in the year the Jets were favored after they fired their coach, and they have Rodgers, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner, and the system lost. Typically the team that fires their coach is a bad team like Carolina, Jacksonville, Washington, etc. Green Bay is also coming off a pretty rough game against Detroit. Green Bay is probably the right side here, but I'll go Bears for small. (2 units).
And I'll say in advance that I'm not taking Dallas after they fire McCarthy before the end of the season.
Edit: Another one I probably messed up putting it in too early. Green Bay is 10-0 SU and ATS against Chicago in their last 10. That's a trend you don't mess with. I've never seen that before.
Leans:
Houston/Dallas OVER 42. I lost my Dallas pick last week after telling myself I will not bet them again this season. I’ll stick to that. Though I think Dallas may have hit rock bottom against Philly last week. They should bounce back and put up 17-20 points, or they’ll continue to roll over and die and allow Houston to get 30+ on their own, then Trey Lance will throw two pick 6s because he's really that bad.
SF/Seattle OVER 49.5. I put this one in without checking, but I'll stick with it for a lean. I saw the total and it seemed way too high. I thought the last couple went under, but the last meeting hit 60. CMAC should be back this week, and so should DK Metcalf. Let's see if the Niners offense can hum again with their MVP back.
Edit: CMAC came back last week, so they had him against Tampa. They should have covered, but missed 3 field goals.
Primetime Games (3-3): Not counting this against the record unless I move it up.I went 3-0 last week unposted (Cincy, Houston, Mia) and I'm counting it for record keeping purposes.
Philly -3.5
LAC -1
DAL/HOU OVER 42
System Plays: (0-0), Half System Plays (1-1)
Half System Play was 1-0 last week. (Jacksonville)
TBD
2024
12-21 Plays, 2-1 Leans
2023
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans
2022
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans
2020
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs