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Another bad week last week. Probably the worst 2 weeks of betting I've had in my entire life. 1-8 in college, and 2-6 in NFL Sunday (3-6 overall), including losing my 19 unit play.
I've come to the conclusion that I'm probably the worst "Bet the Board" capper ever. Need to seriously limit the plays and only do 4 unit max plays on games I like.
Will make it a goal to get to .500 or better by the end of the season on my record.
Yes, I'm fade material now, but fade at your own risk. It could even out.
NY Giants +4 vs. Washington. Yeah, I'm going with the Giants the third week in a row. I like the spot with Washington coming off a miracle victory on the hail mary in a game they had no business losing. The Giants have covered one or both meetings every year for the entire Daniel Jones era going back to 2019. The Giants also lead the league in Sacks. They held Washington to 7 field goals in the first meeting. Washington wanted Daniel Jones in the 2019 draft but the Giants reached to get him, and Washington had to settle for Dwayne Haskins, Jones has been beating them pretty consistently his entire career.
I know I said I would keep the units down, but I really like the spot here. Tyrone Tracy is in concussion protocol, but it looks like he's going to play. Washington's left tackle is injured, and so is the backup I believe. Not good when you're playing the team that's leading the league in sacks.
Despite playing last week, Jayden Daniels was listed as "week-by-week," so his rib injury is more significant than it may seem. A few clean hits from the pocket and it could be trouble.
I don't need to list the units on this, but it's significantly more than any other play this week. I've actually put in this play three separate times this week.
Dallas +2.5 at Atlanta. For the past 2-3 years, I've been bringing up a stat (while Dallas was good), that they hadn't lost 3 in a row ATS in years. It's a rare occurence, and even with how badly they've played this year, they still haven't lost 3 in a row yet SU or ATS. Decent spot after the primetime beatdown, and Atlanta coming off a big win at TB. (2 Unit).
LA Chargers -2 at Cleveland. Still waiting for the Chargers to hit their stride with Harbaugh. Good defense against Jameis Winston coming off the upset win against Baltimore last week. Chargers won, but it was kinda ugly against the backup on the Saints. (2 Units)
Minnesota / Indy OVER 46.5. Will continue to ride the over when Joe Flacco is starting. Nice little trend that may be going under the radar. (2 Unit)
Baltimore -9.5 vs. Denver. I'm historically pretty bad taking the Ravens on large lines, but I'll bite on this one. I was actually toying with starting Bo Nix this week in fantasy based on the matchup, but will pass now after seeing the line. 9.5 seems like a ton of points for a QB that's been playing pretty well, and Denver being one of the best, if not the best defense in the league with the Ravens losing to Jameis and the Browns last week. This could be a 31-6 type game. (1 Unit).
Arizona -1 vs. Chicago. I'm honestly not sure what the Cardinals are these days without Kliff Kingsbury and with a fully healthy Kyler Murray. Are they a good team that will challenge for the division, or are they just darn lucky Winning at SF, hanging with Buffalo, and beating the crap out of the Rams without Cupp and Puka. I think I'll go small on the Cardinals. (1 Unit)
LAR/SEA OVER 48.5. Will likely play this for fun because I have fantasy players in this game. Seattle couldn't get anything going against Buffalo until garbage time, but they both should be able to get into the 20s here. (1 Unit)
KC / TB UNDER 45.5. Baker did pretty well without Godwin and Evans last week. But that was a division game with Atlanta that is typically high scoring. I don't expect a repeat here. I think this is lower scoring. (1 Unit)
Leans:
Tenn -3.5 vs. New England. Will revisit. I think the Titans are giving the hook because Maye might be out this week. If I'm the Patriots, I sit him for extra caution. This is your franchise QB coming off a concussion in a lost season. If Maye is out, this becomes a no play. Brissett's horrid performances prior to last week nullifies the nice win they had against the Jets.
Green Bay +3.5 vs. Detroit. This is a lean for now. Detroit is very close to one of those strong system fades. But they're giving pts on the road, and Jordan Love is questionable with a groin injury that they may hold him out for until after their bye next week. Malik Willis is terrible, but I think they're 2-0 when he starts. I like that they're offering the line right rather than keeping it off the board. Green Bay has very quietly had one of the better defenses this season.
Primetime Games: I may separate these going forward. They're small plays, and I've always been bad with primetime, but I'm playing them just for action for the most part. These aren't leans or plays unless I move them up.
NY Jets -1 vs. Houston. I grabbed this one on Monday before the line move. Small play. I actually haven't bet the Jets too much this season. I think people are starting to give up on them, but it's a short line. Not a good matchup for Rodgers as he's getting pressured too much and that gets him frustrated. The Texans are 4th in the NFL in sacks forced. I think I'll start chasing them a little bit til they win one. Next 3 are very winnable games at Arizona, vs. Indy, and vs. Seattle. They can get to .500 quick if they can string some wins together. (1 Unit).
Edit: The Jets are favored because Nico Collins is out and Stefan Diggs just tore his ACL.
Minnesota / Indy OVER 46.5. Will continue to ride the over when Joe Flacco is starting. Nice little trend that may be going under the radar. (2 Unit)
KC / TB UNDER 45.5. Baker did pretty well without Godwin and Evans last week. But that was a division game with Atlanta that is typically high scoring. I don't expect a repeat here. I think this is lower scoring. (1 Unit)
Looks like I'm betting the board again......
System Plays: (0-0), Half System Plays (0-1)
Half System Play: Denver +9.5 (against one of plays this week).
College Notes:
Boise State / SD St OVER 57.5
Ohio State -3.5 at Penn State
FSU +1.5 vs. UNC
Wisconsin +3
Kentucky +16 (2 Unit)
Baylor TCU Under (2 Unit)
Nevada +1.5
2024
12-21 Plays, 2-1 Leans
2023
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans
2022
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans
2020
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
I've come to the conclusion that I'm probably the worst "Bet the Board" capper ever. Need to seriously limit the plays and only do 4 unit max plays on games I like.
Will make it a goal to get to .500 or better by the end of the season on my record.
Yes, I'm fade material now, but fade at your own risk. It could even out.
NY Giants +4 vs. Washington. Yeah, I'm going with the Giants the third week in a row. I like the spot with Washington coming off a miracle victory on the hail mary in a game they had no business losing. The Giants have covered one or both meetings every year for the entire Daniel Jones era going back to 2019. The Giants also lead the league in Sacks. They held Washington to 7 field goals in the first meeting. Washington wanted Daniel Jones in the 2019 draft but the Giants reached to get him, and Washington had to settle for Dwayne Haskins, Jones has been beating them pretty consistently his entire career.
I know I said I would keep the units down, but I really like the spot here. Tyrone Tracy is in concussion protocol, but it looks like he's going to play. Washington's left tackle is injured, and so is the backup I believe. Not good when you're playing the team that's leading the league in sacks.
Despite playing last week, Jayden Daniels was listed as "week-by-week," so his rib injury is more significant than it may seem. A few clean hits from the pocket and it could be trouble.
I don't need to list the units on this, but it's significantly more than any other play this week. I've actually put in this play three separate times this week.
Dallas +2.5 at Atlanta. For the past 2-3 years, I've been bringing up a stat (while Dallas was good), that they hadn't lost 3 in a row ATS in years. It's a rare occurence, and even with how badly they've played this year, they still haven't lost 3 in a row yet SU or ATS. Decent spot after the primetime beatdown, and Atlanta coming off a big win at TB. (2 Unit).
LA Chargers -2 at Cleveland. Still waiting for the Chargers to hit their stride with Harbaugh. Good defense against Jameis Winston coming off the upset win against Baltimore last week. Chargers won, but it was kinda ugly against the backup on the Saints. (2 Units)
Minnesota / Indy OVER 46.5. Will continue to ride the over when Joe Flacco is starting. Nice little trend that may be going under the radar. (2 Unit)
Baltimore -9.5 vs. Denver. I'm historically pretty bad taking the Ravens on large lines, but I'll bite on this one. I was actually toying with starting Bo Nix this week in fantasy based on the matchup, but will pass now after seeing the line. 9.5 seems like a ton of points for a QB that's been playing pretty well, and Denver being one of the best, if not the best defense in the league with the Ravens losing to Jameis and the Browns last week. This could be a 31-6 type game. (1 Unit).
Arizona -1 vs. Chicago. I'm honestly not sure what the Cardinals are these days without Kliff Kingsbury and with a fully healthy Kyler Murray. Are they a good team that will challenge for the division, or are they just darn lucky Winning at SF, hanging with Buffalo, and beating the crap out of the Rams without Cupp and Puka. I think I'll go small on the Cardinals. (1 Unit)
LAR/SEA OVER 48.5. Will likely play this for fun because I have fantasy players in this game. Seattle couldn't get anything going against Buffalo until garbage time, but they both should be able to get into the 20s here. (1 Unit)
KC / TB UNDER 45.5. Baker did pretty well without Godwin and Evans last week. But that was a division game with Atlanta that is typically high scoring. I don't expect a repeat here. I think this is lower scoring. (1 Unit)
Leans:
Tenn -3.5 vs. New England. Will revisit. I think the Titans are giving the hook because Maye might be out this week. If I'm the Patriots, I sit him for extra caution. This is your franchise QB coming off a concussion in a lost season. If Maye is out, this becomes a no play. Brissett's horrid performances prior to last week nullifies the nice win they had against the Jets.
Green Bay +3.5 vs. Detroit. This is a lean for now. Detroit is very close to one of those strong system fades. But they're giving pts on the road, and Jordan Love is questionable with a groin injury that they may hold him out for until after their bye next week. Malik Willis is terrible, but I think they're 2-0 when he starts. I like that they're offering the line right rather than keeping it off the board. Green Bay has very quietly had one of the better defenses this season.
Primetime Games: I may separate these going forward. They're small plays, and I've always been bad with primetime, but I'm playing them just for action for the most part. These aren't leans or plays unless I move them up.
NY Jets -1 vs. Houston. I grabbed this one on Monday before the line move. Small play. I actually haven't bet the Jets too much this season. I think people are starting to give up on them, but it's a short line. Not a good matchup for Rodgers as he's getting pressured too much and that gets him frustrated. The Texans are 4th in the NFL in sacks forced. I think I'll start chasing them a little bit til they win one. Next 3 are very winnable games at Arizona, vs. Indy, and vs. Seattle. They can get to .500 quick if they can string some wins together. (1 Unit).
Edit: The Jets are favored because Nico Collins is out and Stefan Diggs just tore his ACL.
Minnesota / Indy OVER 46.5. Will continue to ride the over when Joe Flacco is starting. Nice little trend that may be going under the radar. (2 Unit)
KC / TB UNDER 45.5. Baker did pretty well without Godwin and Evans last week. But that was a division game with Atlanta that is typically high scoring. I don't expect a repeat here. I think this is lower scoring. (1 Unit)
Looks like I'm betting the board again......
System Plays: (0-0), Half System Plays (0-1)
Half System Play: Denver +9.5 (against one of plays this week).
College Notes:
Boise State / SD St OVER 57.5
Ohio State -3.5 at Penn State
FSU +1.5 vs. UNC
Wisconsin +3
Kentucky +16 (2 Unit)
Baylor TCU Under (2 Unit)
Nevada +1.5
2024
12-21 Plays, 2-1 Leans
2023
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans
2022
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans
2020
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs