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Putting in the picks early last week did not go well for me. I even ended up taking Pittsburgh on Sunday night instead of the Jets following the Davante Adams trade. Just no time to come back and fix everything unfortunately.
I need to limit my plays more, or put more on the games I like better cuz this is was my 3rd losing week in the 4 weeks I’ve played. Week started well going 5-1 in college, but went 0-5 after that. Coupled with my 2-8 NFL Sunday. And 0-2 Monday! YUCK!
I’m attaching units to my plays this week, but I’m not going to keep track. Each game will just go on my season record.
Edit: I'd like to cheat and keep the lines I wrote on Monday night, but they moved, so that's not fair. I changed them. These are the lines I got on Tuesday.
Plays:
Cincy -2.5 vs. Philly. Really like this one to keep with my Washington winning the division prediction. Washington has a short line against the Bears this week, and I’m looking for them to keep the distance a bit. (18 Units)
Atlanta -2.5 at Tampa Bay. I’ll take the early split in this series. Bounceback for Atlanta after losing pretty much wire to wire against Seattle. (4 Unit)
SF -4.5 vs. Dallas. Usually a good spot to take a team like Dallas off their last game, but Dallas is always overvalued. Will make a fun play on this game, but probably not even worth writing. SF without Aiyuk and CMAC, and Dallas just being an embarrassment. Lean SF at the moment. (2 Unit).
So CMAC is out until after the bye. Aiyuk is out for the season with a torn ACL, and Deebo is in the hospital with pneumonia. And Dallas is off a bye, and still getting 5.5. Gimme the Niners to be at .500 going into their bye.
Seattle / Buffalo Over 47. I think this could be a shootout. Geno has put up good numbers lately, and I don’t trust Seattle’s defense to stop Buffalo even if their offense is not as explosive as years past. (2 Unit)
LA Rams +3 vs. Minnesota. I’ll take a shot on the home dog on Thursday again. Gotta win sometime. (1 Unit)
Tenn +11 at Detroit. Detroit looked good again. I’ll take one more shot at fading the hot team. The line is high, but I don’t see how anyone can take Tenn after they let Buffalo score 34 unanswered points. (1 Unit)
Green Bay -4.5 at Jacksonville. Despite the records, the line seems a bit high. Packers got the win against Houston, but Jordan Love was not sharp, and Jacksonville pretty much had their way with New England. Doug Pederson wouldn’t have made it out of Europe with a job if he lost that game. But his time is coming. (1 Unit)
Bears -2.5 at Washington. Surprised to see the short line here. Likely because of Daniels situation because he injured his ribs. Will need to check on his situation. But Mariota looked good in Daniel’s absence. But who doesn’t when they’re playing Carolina. (1 Unit)
Edit: Daniels is week to week. Chance he plays on Sunday, but I think they protect him since Mariota looked so good on Sunday.
NYG +6.5 at Pitt. Will look at this one later. Small play cuz it’s primetime, but how I saw a stat that Daniel Jones might be even worse than Kirk Cousins in primetime. Pitt should be more like -6.5 here.
Edit: I wrote this before Pitt looked great in the second half last week. If the Giants don't cover this week, I'm done betting them. (1 Unit).
LA Chargers -7.5 vs New Orleans. Will have to see if New Orleans is missing both Carr and Olave this week. The line seems a bit high for a team like the Chargers who have a pretty anemic offense. (1 Unit)
Edit: Carr is looking like he's in and Olave may be in too.
Leans:
No Plays. I Can't decide on these two anymore. Pass altogether.
Cleveland +10 vs Baltimore. I need to give Cleveland more thought every week cuz they’re so bad, and that’s a lot of points for a division rivalry at home. They’ll be running with the backup though. The question is whether the defense can hold Baltimore to 20 or less. I have to see what happens on Monday first.
KC -10 at LV Raiders. I’ll probably do a split with the Cleveland game and take one dog and one favorite. Raiders will probably be going with Minshew.
System Plays: (0-0), Half System Plays (0-1)
No System Plays This Week.
College Notes:
Navy +13
Charlotte (2 Unit)
Baylor/OK St UNDER
Utah -3.5 (2 Unit)
Kentucky -2.5
Colorado Cincy OVER
2024
9-15 Plays, 2-1 Leans
2023
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans
2022
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans
2020
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
I need to limit my plays more, or put more on the games I like better cuz this is was my 3rd losing week in the 4 weeks I’ve played. Week started well going 5-1 in college, but went 0-5 after that. Coupled with my 2-8 NFL Sunday. And 0-2 Monday! YUCK!
I’m attaching units to my plays this week, but I’m not going to keep track. Each game will just go on my season record.
Edit: I'd like to cheat and keep the lines I wrote on Monday night, but they moved, so that's not fair. I changed them. These are the lines I got on Tuesday.
Plays:
Cincy -2.5 vs. Philly. Really like this one to keep with my Washington winning the division prediction. Washington has a short line against the Bears this week, and I’m looking for them to keep the distance a bit. (18 Units)
Atlanta -2.5 at Tampa Bay. I’ll take the early split in this series. Bounceback for Atlanta after losing pretty much wire to wire against Seattle. (4 Unit)
SF -4.5 vs. Dallas. Usually a good spot to take a team like Dallas off their last game, but Dallas is always overvalued. Will make a fun play on this game, but probably not even worth writing. SF without Aiyuk and CMAC, and Dallas just being an embarrassment. Lean SF at the moment. (2 Unit).
So CMAC is out until after the bye. Aiyuk is out for the season with a torn ACL, and Deebo is in the hospital with pneumonia. And Dallas is off a bye, and still getting 5.5. Gimme the Niners to be at .500 going into their bye.
Seattle / Buffalo Over 47. I think this could be a shootout. Geno has put up good numbers lately, and I don’t trust Seattle’s defense to stop Buffalo even if their offense is not as explosive as years past. (2 Unit)
LA Rams +3 vs. Minnesota. I’ll take a shot on the home dog on Thursday again. Gotta win sometime. (1 Unit)
Tenn +11 at Detroit. Detroit looked good again. I’ll take one more shot at fading the hot team. The line is high, but I don’t see how anyone can take Tenn after they let Buffalo score 34 unanswered points. (1 Unit)
Green Bay -4.5 at Jacksonville. Despite the records, the line seems a bit high. Packers got the win against Houston, but Jordan Love was not sharp, and Jacksonville pretty much had their way with New England. Doug Pederson wouldn’t have made it out of Europe with a job if he lost that game. But his time is coming. (1 Unit)
Bears -2.5 at Washington. Surprised to see the short line here. Likely because of Daniels situation because he injured his ribs. Will need to check on his situation. But Mariota looked good in Daniel’s absence. But who doesn’t when they’re playing Carolina. (1 Unit)
Edit: Daniels is week to week. Chance he plays on Sunday, but I think they protect him since Mariota looked so good on Sunday.
NYG +6.5 at Pitt. Will look at this one later. Small play cuz it’s primetime, but how I saw a stat that Daniel Jones might be even worse than Kirk Cousins in primetime. Pitt should be more like -6.5 here.
Edit: I wrote this before Pitt looked great in the second half last week. If the Giants don't cover this week, I'm done betting them. (1 Unit).
LA Chargers -7.5 vs New Orleans. Will have to see if New Orleans is missing both Carr and Olave this week. The line seems a bit high for a team like the Chargers who have a pretty anemic offense. (1 Unit)
Edit: Carr is looking like he's in and Olave may be in too.
Leans:
No Plays. I Can't decide on these two anymore. Pass altogether.
Cleveland +10 vs Baltimore. I need to give Cleveland more thought every week cuz they’re so bad, and that’s a lot of points for a division rivalry at home. They’ll be running with the backup though. The question is whether the defense can hold Baltimore to 20 or less. I have to see what happens on Monday first.
KC -10 at LV Raiders. I’ll probably do a split with the Cleveland game and take one dog and one favorite. Raiders will probably be going with Minshew.
System Plays: (0-0), Half System Plays (0-1)
No System Plays This Week.
College Notes:
Navy +13
Charlotte (2 Unit)
Baylor/OK St UNDER
Utah -3.5 (2 Unit)
Kentucky -2.5
Colorado Cincy OVER
2024
9-15 Plays, 2-1 Leans
2023
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans
2022
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans
2020
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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